Ipswich can’t afford to sack or keep Paul Lambert

When a club starts a new season fighting for promotion after years of desolation and a latest disastrous campaign, and hands their manager a fresh five-year contract just weeks before going to the top of the table, you would be forgiven for thinking all is fine. But at Ipswich Town, it’s never that simple.

In the five weeks since defeating Lincoln City to sit at the summit of League One, and just two months after signing his new deal, Paul Lambert’s Tractor Boys have not just lost top spot, not just conceded hopes of automatic promotion, and have far worse worries than seeing their play-off hopes reduced to a slither; they are in free-fall with little chance of redemption.

First, the context. There were misgivings about this Ipswich side from the start of the season. Along with Sunderland and Portsmouth, the vast majority of fans and pundits had any two of the three to be promoted, with the odd club out being assumed play-off contenders.

After weak starts, Pompey and the Black Cats are starting to show glimpses of promotion form as the run-in commences, while after an 11-game unbeaten run to start the campaign, Ipswich’s tractor has ground to an abrupt halt.

Some credit has to be afforded to Lambert. Ipswich were promotion favourites for little reason other than name. To have gone through a quarter of the season without tasting defeat, and to be top in late January, belied the facts of a squad of significantly less quality than many of their competitors, exacerbated by a host of injury problems.

Four wins in the last 20 games and six defeats in eight, while inexcusable, represent a more realistic depiction for a club who suffered one of the worst second-tier seasons of any side in the 21st century. Not even the best-run football clubs can make such a quick recovery from a season featuring just five victories.

There are few Suffolk folk who believe that the man contracted to the hot seat for the next half-decade is the man to pull them out of the mud, both in the short and long term. It is understandable that owner Marcus Evans felt that the former Norwich City chief had warranted staying at Portman Road thanks to their wonderful start, and few could have argued with a 12-month extension, but signing up to five years has left the Ipswich hierarchy between a rock and a perennial League One place.

Lambert gets a largely unfair bad rap as a manager; he has undoubtedly done more good than bad. A sliding doors career move to Aston Villa belittles the great work he did at Wycombe Wanderers (including a run to the League Cup semi-final), Colchester United and Norwich City.

But he has tasted little success since, with fruitless spells at the likes of Wolves and Blackburn, both of whom have gone onto much better things since the Scot’s departure. Stoke is better forgotten.

Ipswich surely eye a similar renaissance, but any separation or parting of ways will cost Ipswich money they can scarcely afford, while keeping the 50-year-old will serve to cost Ipswich something more – their happiness, their fans and their spot back in the second tier. Tuesday’s defeat at home to Fleetwood Town now leaves Ipswich half a dozen points off the sixth-placed Cod Army having played two games more than Joey Barton’s side.

Attentions must already turn to next season. Even an unlikely turnaround in form to close the gap to the top six would result in being outclassed in the end-of-season lottery, and in the extreme event of promotion, damage the club irreparably, given they are not at the level – both on and off the pitch – to sustain that place.

If Lambert is to serve any more of the remaining four-and-a-half years of his contract to attempt another promotion push, a change in playing style is vital, and that comes with a change in recruitment.

Too many hopes were pinned on James Norwood for goals, given his lack of experience in the third tier. Too many second chances were given to players at fault for their humiliating exit from the Championship. Too often players are played out of position to suit a system which has little proof of succeeding even with the suitable round pegs in place.

Having spent 17 straight seasons in the Championship until their 2019 relegation, you could have forgiven Ipswich fans for being happy of the change in scenery in League One. But so far, the positives are few and far between, and if the club continues with its misdirection, they may well be spending a similar amount of time in the third tier.

Nathan Spafford – follow him on Twitter

 

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