Judgement Day for Emery or just a catalyst for change?
‘For Emery this truly will decide whether his season has been a success of a failure – and quite possibly make or break his reign,’ is the kind of simplistic thinking that we have come to expect from the tabloid press – on this occasion from The Sun’s Chief Sports Writer – who can see only black and white, winners and losers, haves and have-nots. Should Arsenal triumph in Baku then Emery has been a success and that will shape the narrative of the summer; should Arsenal lose then he is a failure and the recess will cast Emery as an emperor wearing nothing at all. Never mind that it is just one football match that could be turned on a lucky bounce, a lack of discipline or a twisted ankle, defeat will mean that the Spaniard’s season will be judged as – at best – indifferent.
In truth, Emery has already surpassed expectations; there will be no discussion within Arsenal’s boardroom about this season being a success or failure based on 90 or 120 minutes of football between two evenly-matched sides. As the Spaniard explained this week, he did not promise the club titles when he was appointed, he “promised to compete”. And compete Arsenal have – a 12-point gap to fourth has become one point, a pathetic six points against Big Six opposition has become 12 points, 63 points has become 70 points, a Europa League semi-final has become a Europa League final. If you then argue that defeat in that final would constitute failure then you are an ass.
Recency bias begs to paint this Arsenal season as a disappointment, because the last few weeks of the season saw them come a quarter-inch short in the World’s Tallest Dwarf competition that became the ‘race’ for the final Champions League places; had Arsenal chased down Tottenham to finish one point adrift then we would not be talking about weak collapse but about a valiant fight. There is clearly still work to do on mentality, and Petr Cech’s words in an interview with the Evening Standard were telling:
“I think we lose points where there is not enough pressure. So, we went to Everton [on April 7]. You know you win, you go third…you lose, you stay fourth. We lost. That week with Wolves [losing at Molineux, either side of defeats to Crystal Palace and Leicester], it was the same situation. There was always a cushion, there was always, ‘It is not such a disaster’.”
Eventually, the cushion became this Europa League final and qualification for the Champions League too often called ‘entry by the back door’ when really it is the most spectacular of homecomings, crashing through the front door with a massive trophy and a victory parade. The implication from Cech is that a winner-takes-all final against Chelsea is actually a far easier task for this Arsenal side than a winner-moves-up-a-place clash with Everton. “I feel that when Arsenal need to win, we win,” he says.
And logic tells you that these Arsenal players have a greater need to win than Chelsea on Wednesday night. For the Blues, Champions League qualification has already been assured – a trophy is icing rather than cake – while the Gunners are desperate to return to their place among the European elite. After almost two decades in that company, two years is too long to spend on the outside looking in. Add to that the possibility of a trophy – only a handful of this season’s likely starters were part of the Arsenal side that won the FA Cup two years ago – and motivation is not in short supply.
Emery may have a different motivation again, if reports are true that these 90 minutes could decide whether he has £40m or £100m to spend this summer. He talks of changing things at Arsenal ‘little by little’, but bigger strides are easier with fresh legs. Especially fresh defensive legs. This game truly will not decide whether his season has been a success or a failure, but it will decide whether the evolution of this Gunners side has any chance of edging into the realms of revolution. This is a potential accelerator, not a final reckoning.
Sarah Winterburn