Liverpool are kings of Premier League run-ins but Arsenal? Look away now
The narrative is that Manchester City are a machine in a Premier League run-in but Liverpool actually have the better record over the last five years. But Arsenal? Oh wow.
LIVERPOOL
Last nine games 22/23: 23 points
Last nine games 21/22: 23 points
Last nine games 20/21: 23 points
Last nine games 19/20: 17 points
Last nine games 18/19: 27 points
Total over five seasons of nine-game run-ins: 113 from possible 135
Wow. That’s a ludicrous record. In fact, the only run-in games Liverpool have lost in the last five years have come in July 2020 when the Covid-hit season had already yielded a Premier League title. Their vanquishers? Arsenal and Manchester City.
Otherwise, they have been damn-near perfect, coming close to titles through their near-perfection in 2018/19 and 2021/22, only to finish second with 90-plus points.
Perhaps the most impressive run-in came in 2020/21. As April began, they were seventh and five points off Chelsea in fourth. By end of the season, they were third and two points ahead of Chelsea in fourth. In what became an irresistible late-season march, they won 4-2 at Old Trafford before Alisson scored a 95th-minute winner v West Brom, back when 95th-minute winners were unusual.
They attempted a similar revival last season, but seven consecutive wins were halted by a 1-1 draw at Aston Villa that all-but ended their hopes of Champions League qualification.
In short, they are really very good at this time of year.
MANCHESTER CITY
Last nine games 22/23: 22 points
Last nine games 21/22: 23 points
Last nine games 20/21: 18 points
Last nine games 19/20: 21 points
Last nine games 18/19: 27 points
Total over five seasons of nine-game run-ins: 111 from possible 135
Like Liverpool, the only real run-in glitch came in 2020/21 when the title was pretty much in the bag, with ten-man Leeds and Chelsea winning at the Etihad and another defeat coming at Brighton. They matched the Reds stride for stride in 18/19 and 21/22 when it was absolutely needed.
The title was never really a possibility in 2019/20, but a faintly ridiculous 31 goals scored in those last nine games was a harbinger of what was to come the following year.
It’s last season which is the best indication of their run-in prowess. Five points behind with nine games to go, City smashed out seven consecutive wins, including a soul-destroying (for the opposition) 4-1 win over Arsenal. They did go on to drop five points – but only when the title was won. Who even remotely remembers them losing at Brentford on the final day?
ARSENAL
Last nine games 22/23: 12 points
Last nine games 21/22: 15 points
Last nine games 20/21: 19 points
Last nine games 19/20: 16 points
Last nine games 18/19: 13 points
Total over five seasons of nine-game run-ins: 75 from possible 135
Oh dear. Oh dear, oh dear. There is mitigation because this was not always a Mikel Arteta team and absolutely not always title contenders, but there is a pattern emerging here.
In 2018/19, there were three straight April defeats to Crystal Palace, Wolves and Leicester City to throw away a top-four place.
In 2021/22, there were three straight April defeats to Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton to throw away a top-four place.
In 2022/23 there were three straight April draws v Liverpool, West Ham and Southampton to throw away their advantage in the title race before a 4-1 capitulation at Manchester City.
Arsenal fans would have you believe that this is a more mature Arsenal side – and they absolutely did not risk a tonking at Manchester City on Sunday – but they will have to sail in unchartered water if they are to claim the Premier League title.