Liverpool, luck and their Champions League chances…

Date published: Wednesday 23rd May 2018 9:10

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The waiting is hard…
Just to think, if the Champions League final hadn’t been moved to a Saturday, it’d be on tonight….
Jim Bob Lfc
(Honestly, Christmas came quicker when I was a kid)


The Premier League trumps the Champions League
Liverpool have had a phenomenal year. Not only did they finish in the top four guaranteeing Champions League football but are also in the final of said tournament. Klopp deserves enormous credit for this; for the results, the expansive style of play and his transfers acumen. They benefited from the sale of Coutinho but invested wisely and the team is stronger for that.

The last English team to reach a Champions League final was Chelsea in 2012 so matching that feat is an incredible achievement. However, while the league title stretches across 38 teams ensuring the best team wins, the knock-out nature of Champions League does not ensure always ensure that.

Every Premier League team this year topped their respective CL group so getting past this stage is no major achievement. In fact only Chelsea scored less points in the group stages than Livepool.

From then on, it is just four games that can decide the title. Out of this, the only tough fixture they had was against Manchester City while losing against Roma and Porto would clearly have classified as a huge upset. Contrast this to Real Madrid, who knocked out European heavyweights Bayern Munich, Juventus and PSG in that order to qualify for the final. Would Liverpool have been in the final had they encountered a similar run?

It is true that you make your luck and full credit to Liverpool for making the most of their fortune, but let’s not pretend that Liverpool reaching the final is proof that they have eclipsed teams who finished higher than them in the league or suddenly, that their squad can be compared to that of Real, Barca, PSG and Bayern or even those who finished higher than them in the table.

At the end of the day, the only thing that matters is results and objectively, win or lose the final, Liverpool have had a better season than both United and Chelsea (but not City). But this is no paradigm shift.


Liverpool: Underdogs but not outclassed
If you want an explanation for why Liverpool fans are feeling optimistic going into this final. It’s simple really:

The last two finals.

Less so in 2007, but definitely in 2005, Liverpool were vastly outclassed by the best side in world football. I mean, the gap in quality between 2005 AC Milan and 2005 Liverpool is laughable. We had closed over two years (more due to Milan fading than anything else), yet that final was still incredibly close, with us frankly unlucky to lose. With Pennant in our lineup.

This Real Madrid team is one of the all-time greats. It’s filled with awesome players and Keylor Navas. Youth and experience wedded with nearly unprecedented experience of winning this competition. All led by a great coach. It is as good now as Milan was back then. Possibly better, but that’s a subjective argument.

The difference? The Liverpool team of today is way, way, way better. There is no Traore or Baros in this lineup. Heck, love him to death, but there isn’t even a player on the level of Luis Garcia (again, subjective arguments).

Lovern is sometimes crazy, but between those moments he’s an elite centre back. Djimi was crazier, and the rest of the time was indifferent centre back playing left back. Milan Baros was a 1 in 4 striker. I think us reds sneer too much at Kewell’s impact, but there’s a reason that he continually thrust back into the first team, even when he was a barely fit paper-mache man. We just had no quality up front.

On the weekend, Liverpool will go into the final as underdogs, but not completely outclassed. And considering how we like to play that’s perfect for us.
Andrew M, JHB


It will be an Istanbul reverse
My prediction for Saturday is an Istanbul reverse. Liverpool do seem to blitz teams in a frantic 15 minute spell of hyper gegenpressing. Liverpool will enter half time 3-0 up, then In typical Liverpool fashion will proceed to collapse after releasing the Klavan after 70 minutes.

Full time will end at 3-3 with Liverpool just holding on for extra time. The next 30 mins will be pretty unspectacular minus a double save from point blank range to Karius’s face from Ronaldo to give me kittens. He will then stand there with his hands on his hips and that pained expression on his face as if he’s about to cry.

Penalties I’m not quite sure? I just cannot see Liverpool winning this with Karius in goal against the firepower of Madrid. You can count on Milner & Salah, but if we need Lovren to step up.. god help us!
Ben (Ronaldo to miss and Millie to score the winning penalty would be perfect) Howarth


Dissection/analysis of Champions League final
If you an emotional Reds fan, there might be content that you don’t like, so retreat now. If you are up for a healthy dicussion and an analysis based on facts, read through.

From a neutral’s perspective this is sure going to be a one to watch. It has all the ingredients to be a “goals galore”, given the exceptional attacking force and the floundering defence on both ends.

Being realistic (not emotional), I believe Real Madrid has a slightly better chance of winning the final. One can not simply deny the fact they have been doing amazingly well for the past 6-7 years and have won it three times in the past four years.

2016/17: winners
2015/16: winners
2014/15: semi-finals
2013/14: winners
2012/13: semi-finals
2011/12: semi-finals
2010/11: semi-finals

They have way more experience, tendency to absorb pressure and the ability to perform at this stage. Whereas Liverpool has made it to the UCL final after 11 years and the only players that come to my mind who have won a cup final are James Milner, Jordan Henderson and Sadio Mane. And mind you, these FA Cup and League Cups are no way near the calibre of a Champions League Final.

On the contrary, Klopp although being a mastermind has a very bad cup final record (i-e 1/6 cup finals won). Would he able to cope up with the big stage pressure to get his boys through? Because pressure does get to him, any one else noticed that he does not look at penalties?

In my opinion, against all odds, there are two major factors that might win Liverpool the Champions League title this year.

First of all, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool benefits against naturally attacking sides. We have seen time and time again that Klopp’s sides have thrashed big guns who have an aggressive and attacking portfolio. Unlike Real’s style of play, Liverpool have often struggled against deep lying teams as geggenpressing does not work well with bus-parked defenses. Hopefully, we will not see such an approach by Zinedine Zidane. But be wary that Zidane is a very shrewd manager and he might a have a trick or two in the hat to pull. The most recent example is against Bayern (while playing away in the semis), he cut his team’s natural attacking style of play and was patient to score those two crucial away goals. Having said that, as a LFC fan I am more at ease to see Real Madrid as the final opponent than a team like Allegri’s Juventus or Conte’s Chelsea or Jose “whine-all-the-time” Mourinho’s United.

Secondly, Real’s overconfidence and their recent attitude definitely plays in LFC’s favour. Having a star-studded team and being so overly successful in this Championship might just serve them right. It is natural for them to consider Liverpool as the under dogs, but wait till FSM tears through their defence to score a couple.

P.S i just made up FSM right now  (Firmino, Salah, Mane…….Duhhhh!)


Believe it or not, my biggest concern for this tie is TAA. Before you jump the gun and start summoning me on how good he is and is a ‘potential to become a world class player’, don’t forget that he is still a ‘potential’ and not a seasoned campaigner yet. I personally am a big fan of his but still feel that he may not be ready for such a big game yet. If Nathaniel Clyne was fit and in form, I would choose him over TAA in the blink of an eye, based on experience. Against Roma, TAA was brilliant for 60 mins and then he showed how vulnerable he can be. If there is a spell where he switches off like he did against Roma, Christiano Ronaldo and Marcelo will absolutely nail it! In my opinion TAA will need a constant cover by either Wijnaldum or Milner or maybe even Salah. It is less likely that Milner would be able to do it, as he would be playing as a LM, otherwise would have been perfect for such a role.

Dejan Lovren has been doing well (not exceptional) for the past few months but God save us from his incredible ability to self destruct! VVD and Robbo on the other hand are very sound and would most likely take care of themselves.

I really hope Lovren and TAA prove me absolutely wrong, but these two are the weakest link in the chain which Ronaldo would be sure to exploit!

If there is one department where Real dominates by a mile is the midfield and this is where the battle would have to be won. Casemiro, Modric and Kroos are maestros of the midfield! And in contrast, Liverpool is struggling with injuries and would be missing their two regular starters, Emre Can and OX. Having said that there is going to be a huge burden on Jordan Henderson’s shoulders to replicate the performance against Roma where he pocketed Radja Naingollan. The captain along with Milner must neutralize Tony Kroos and Luka Modric to dominate the midfield.

Wijnaldum has by far been the dissapointment of the season for me. It almost seems like I don’t understand his role in the team, probably just filling a position of an injured player or a rested player. He has to fill the shoes of OX who has really raised the bar in his position. Wijnaldum MUST raise his game and have a great game as he did against Roma (2nd leg).

Well what can I say, we have the best attack in world club football right now and I am not going to say much here.

But for the sake of being critical, I guess the only thing would be that Mane is more decisive on a counter whether to pass or to shoot.

Apart from that, in the last two league games (i-e Chelsea and Stoke) I noticed that Salah moved central, which made Firmino go wide. This really killed the sting in Liverpool’s attack. Salah must play in the position where he scored 43 goals and Firmino must stay central to be the engine he is to the Reds’ attack.

Given Real’s abundance of UCL experience versus Liverpool’s lack of experience, Liverpool must kill the game in regular time. By killing the game I mean that if they manage to get a lead, they MUST manage the game to see it safely through. Liverpool’s lack of squad depth suplemented by injuries also begs the fact they should not go into overtime or penalties.

All in all, hoping that Liverpool will take their sixth European Title and replicate the result from 1981. Somehow this final feels even bigger than the 2007 final against AC Milan. It’s growing on most of us!

Walk on, Walk on
With hope in your heart
And you’ll never walk alone!



Liverpool need a keeper. Full stop.
Thank you for the transfer guide – lovely as always however…

This summer should see moves for pretty much all of Lukasz Fabianski, Jack Butland, Pepe Reina (already gone to AC Milan) and Tom Heaton. Liverpool have also been linked with Becker, Oblak and even Buffon. If Liverpool don’t sign a very, very good goalkeeper then any progress will be pretty much for nothing.

A back four of Moore, Beckenbauer, Maldini and Rob Jones couldn’t protect Mignolet or Karius.
Micki Attridge


Emery just papering over the cracks
Maybe it’s because as an Arsenal fan I’ve been conditioned to always expect the worst, but I dont see Emery working out.

Someone joked in the mailbox that we dont need to worry about his awful CL record which was amusing, but that’s the least of my worries. How about that he failed to win the French League with one of the most expensive squads ever assembled in his first year at PSG?

Look at his record and he is basically what Wenger was for the last 10 years. Does well enough, teams play good football, wins the odd cup and always loses to the bigger clubs.

The hope was that when Wenger left we would have something different or some hope but this appointment just leaves me expecting more of the same. That may be a good thing because it’s the hope that kills you, but I would still have preffered Arteta.

Yes, there was a good chance he could fail spectacularly but also a chance things might have changed for the better. The players would have got a much-needed kick up the arse and he would have brought some bastardosity (copyright Arseblog) back to the Arsenal, which is really what most of our fans want.

Oh well, so another season of mild disinterest in the football then. On the plus side I got loads done this season…
Adonis Stevenson, AFC

…The appointment of Unai Emery reminds very much of Sebastian Squillaci – after extensive scouting, Arsenal have identified a cost effective option with good pedigree and all the right credentials. Yet it seems utterly underwhelming.

A very Arsenal signing.
Morris (hoping I’m completely wrong about this)


Cautious optimism here
Well it’s official.

Emery’s experience in the Europa League may be critical next season as we may have to win the thing for us to get Champions League football.

The reason is I think his attention to detail and his predecessor’s apparent eschewing of this will ensure the new manager will butt heads with a playing staff used to being told they’re fantastic, when they’re really not.

Expect Ozil to languish in the reserves before being put up for sale in January along with Mustafi and Bellerin making way for Jenkinson.

There should be plenty of opportunities for the youngsters however, so I also see this being a big season for the likes of Maitland Niles, Reiss Nelson and Nketiah.

But in any event – good luck Unai and welcome. Your appointment may not excite the hell out of everyone but neither did Arsene’s once upon a time.
Graham Simons, Gooner, Norf London

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