Liverpool vs Newcastle United prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats
Liverpool and Newcastle will contest the Carabao Cup at Wembley this Sunday, with the Reds hot favourites to lift the trophy for the eleventh time.
Standing in their way will be a fired up Toon Army who have given them a run for their money in recent seasons.
Nearly 90,000 Kopites and Geordies will march on Wembley Way to take in all the glitz and glamour of the Cup final, which usually precedes a 90 minute chess match.
Cup finals are often short on drama when big clubs are involved, yet this season’s wild 3-3 draw at St James’ Park teases this match as one that could buck trends.
There’s no escaping the fact that the Premier League champions-in-waiting are unbeaten in 16 meetings, winning each of the last seven by an aggregate score of 16-5.
Still, as a betting man of 15+ years, I like to cling to the belief that if you back enough three-legged horses, the rest of the field will fall over eventually.
Howe’s side being the fresher of the two could play a factor as two powerful midfields set about each other, so we’re not keen to write them off.
Liverpool team news
Joe Gomez, Conor Bradley and Tyler Morton were already ruled out for the Carabao Cup final, but the news that Trent Alexander-Arnold will also miss out is a major blow.
He and Ibrahima Konate were withdrawn from the penalty-shootout defeat to PSG on Wednesday, though Arne Slot has confirmed the latter was just fatigued.
That presents Jarrell Quansah with the opportunity to start alongside Konate, Virgil van Dijk and Andy Robertson at Wembley.
The energetic trio of Alexis Mac Allister, Ryan Gravenberch and the forward-thinking Dominik Szoboszlai will feature again.
There are decisions to be made in attack with Cody Gakpo, Darwin Nunez (who has reportedly offered himself to Barcelona – bet they say no), Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz all vying for starts.
Mohamed Salah, Luis Diaz and Cody Gakpo should get the nod if the latter is deemed fit enough to start.
Liverpool expected line-up
Alisson – Quansah, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson – Mac Allister, Gravenberch – Salah, Szoboszlai, Diaz – Gakpo
Newcastle team news
Martin Dubravka has been the keeper of choice in cup competitions so could nudge Nick Pope out of the Magpies’ goal.
Injuries to Sven Botman and Jaamal Lascelles will allow Dan Burn, who seems to be on the verge of an England call-up, and Fabian Schar to continue their partnership.
Lewis Hall’s absence was offset by moving Kieran Trippier to right-back and handing Tino Livramento the left-back berth against West Ham.
Bruno Guimaraes, Sandro Tonali, Joe Willock and Joelinton possess the running power to match Liverpool’s, with the latter replacing the suspended Anthony Gordon out wide.
Jacob Murphy has been a consistent performer off the right with eight assists and five goals in the Premier League.
The likes of Arsenal are reportedly among the sides sniffing around 22-goal hitman Alexander Isak, who will be hoping to fire his side to a first major honour since 1969.
Newcastle expected line-up
Dubravka – Trippier, Schar, Burn, Livramento – Guimaraes, Tonali, Willock – Murphy, Isak, Joelinton
Liverpool vs Newcastle: How to watch and listen
You have several viewing options with the Carabao Cup final being shown live on Sky Sports Main Event, Football, UHD and Sky Showcase, plus ITV and ITVX. There will be live radio commentary on BBC Radio 5 Live Sport.
Liverpool vs Newcastle stats:
Liverpool have dominated Newcastle in recent meetings. The Reds are unbeaten in 16 and have won seven on the spin.
Liverpool will be looking to get their hands on the Carabao Cup for the 11th time.
A win for Liverpool will see them equal Manchester United’s record of 19 domestic trophies.
Newcastle’s most successful period since losing consecutive FA Cup finals in 1998 and 1999 against Arsenal and Manchester United, respectively, has resulted in their second appearance at Wembley Stadium in three seasons.
The Magpies haven’t lifted a trophy since the Inter-Cities Fairs Cup in 1969. Their most recent domestic silverware was hoisted after beating Man City in the 1955 FA Cup final.
Mo Salah has recorded a mind-boggling 54 goal involvements this season, which is precisely double the amount Isak has been involved in.
Arne Slot (Liverpool) quotes
On the final:
“We are looking forward to playing a final, you cannot take it for granted in this country with so many good teams in each competition. If you are part of it, we try to win it. That is what Newcastle want as well.
“I don’t go along with it being bigger for Newcastle. If you reach a final, it is always a big moment for them and also for us. We have two cups but you cannot take it for granted in this country. We don’t play a final every year.
“I said it two days ago, in this part of the season – in England – it is almost impossible to have everyone fit. We have two or three injuries and that is the minimum you can expect after four months of non-stop football. So it is a big compliment for us and Newcastle to have so many fit.
“Trent and Gordon are big players for both clubs but there are a lot of quality players for both.”
On team news:
“Trent is not available. He is to be assessed for how long it will take but we expect him back before the end of the season.
“Konate didn’t train yesterday and the day before was recovery. I expect him to train today, but let’s see how he is.
“Curtis can play there (right-back) or a left-footed defender on the right. That is what Newcastle is doing at the moment, but on the other side.”
On Jarrel Quansah and his England call-up:
“It says a lot about his mentality. I changed him v Ipswich and Virgil and Ibou are such a strong combination, so every time he plays everyone can see he is a talent, he has had some setbacks and he has reacted and shown in recent performances, he has outgrown being called just a talent so that is what Tuchel has seen.
“He has done well for us in a position he is not used to, at right-back. He is strong, fast and comfortable on the ball. And he gives us something different on set-pieces too, you saw where he hit the post.”
On losing to PSG:
“You play games like this to win. That is what we will try to do. We are looking forward to playing a final and that is something you can’t take for granted.
“Everyone wants to win trophies and this is a chance to do that. Our league position is also a reason to keep going.
“If you are to go out of a tournament, I think the way we lost to PSG was the right way.”
Eddie Howe (Newcastle) quotes
On ending Newcastle’s trophy drought:
“I think it’s a real motivation for us to try and break that long time and that long wait that everyone’s feeling.
“It should be inspiring for us – not a negative. I understand it will be a negative or a perceived negative for a lot of people, but we’re trying to look at it the other way round.
“It’s a chance to make history for us as a team – that’s very rare in football. You get very few opportunities to do that, a chance to be remembered positively.
“I want the players to look at it that way, as I said earlier, to attack the game and to get a good representation of us.
On the season so far:
“I think the whole thing and this season’s felt different in the sense that I think we’ve just gone about our business in a really calm, controlled way, professional way, we’ve had a really tough run of fixtures in the Carabao Cup.
“We’ve sort of just gone from round to round and now we’ve ended up in the final, there’s been a lot less emotion. There’s been a lot less noise I think outside.
“So hopefully that helps us in our performance in the game. You never quite know what effect that will have, but we’ve been very much focused on our build up and preparation and getting the game plan right.”
On the impact of the supporters:
“I’m sure they will be [the 12th man] for us. I think they always are, they were at West Ham.
“We know from the last time we got to the final, the scenes driving up to Wembley, the feeling of support and unity that we have.
“The expression the fans give in every game is huge for us and yeah, we’re going to need them, we’re absolutely going to need that 50% to turn into 55% if possible.
“We need every bit of help we can to push us over the line.”
Liverpool vs Newcastle referee stats:
John Brooks is set to referee Sunday’s Carabao Cup finaly, ably assisted by VAR Stuart Atwell and assistant VAR Sian Massey-Ellis.
Brooks is no stranger to big occasions having refereed Man City vs Chelsea, Tottenham vs Man Utd and Liverpool vs Chelsea this season.
Newcastle fans will be pleased to hear they have a 100% record under Brooks with both of his previous assignments seeing them win to nil against Arsenal.
Liverpool also have fond memories of their most recent meeting with the Leicestershire-based referee, who awarded them two penalties (one was overturned) during a 2-1 win against Chelsea at Anfield in October.
Yellow cards are given out like they’re going out of fashion in this year’s Premier League, so it’s no surprise to see Brooks has brandished 5.46 per match. However, he’s yet to show a red card.
Liverpool vs Newcastle prediction:
Having suffered 1-0 defeats to two of the elite P’s of European football, Paris Saint-Germain and Plymouth Argyle, the Reds will hope they don’t stumble again when reaching for the first trophy of a domestic double.
The magical xG machine suggests this fixture finishes 2-1 in their favour on a neutral ground, though it’s hard to factor in the cagey nature of a Wembley final.
Five of the previous six have produced under 2.5 goals but it’s fair to suggest both teams can score with players like Salah and Isak on the pitch.
Wednesday’s defeat to PSG must have taken something from Liverpool, while Howe has enjoyed a free midweek to prepare the Magpies. That could help them keep it close.
