Arsenal would have won the league with Emery instead of Arteta last season…

You’ll never guess who’s piping up in the Mailbox to insist that an Arsenal manager bottled it last season. Also: why the stats don’t tell the real story around Ten Hag’s Man Utd.

Get your views in to theeditor@football365.com…

Emery wouldn’t have bottled it like Arteta
365 has (deservedly imo) put Unai Emery at the top of the managerial performance. He is obviously doing a superb job at Villa and if anything, his success is serving to highlight just how inept a manager Steven Gerrard was. This is effectively, almost the exact same squad (a few additions).

What’s interesting of course is the fact that Emery is achieving this without spending a king’s ransom. Villa are very competitive – so, imagine what Emery could have achieved at Arsenal had he:

A) Been given the funds
B) Been given the opportunity by Arsenal fans

If we look at how much Arteta has spent, it doesn’t paint a pretty picture. If Emery had been given £200m to spend in a summer, what could he have done one wonders? Emery has gone on the record to confirm that he asked the Arsenal board for certain players (Partey an example) but was refused. Arteta on the other hand, was hugely backed – despite having a vastly inferior cv to Emery. It’s all very strange? Because I can absolutely guarantee that Emery wouldn’t have pilfered £65m in Havertz, there’s no way. Doesn’t fit into his style at all.

Many Arsenal fans had it in for Emery because he apparently wasn’t fit to lace the boots of a Specialist in Failure, who celebrated 4th place, got spanked 10-2 in the CL, 8-2 in the league and consistently delivered mediocre outcomes for almost a straight decade. It’s all very Cult-like. And despite not being given that backing, Emery made a European final and screwed up a top 4 finish at the death, despite having a squad of bums (mainly assembled by his inept predecessor).

Given that Arteta has needed over £400m in transfers to finally look decent, would Emery have choked in the same manner Arteta did with a title virtually in the bag last season? I would hypothesise, not.
Stewie Griffin (apparently Arteta wants Kalvin Phillips now. If I’m the Arsenal board, I am not trusting him with one penny more after the Havertz fiasco. So unimaginative with this Pep rejects obsession)

Read more: 20) Kompany, 19) Ten Hag, 15) Howe, 8) Arteta – it’s the latest F365 Premier League Manager Rankings

Trump, 365 and PGMOL
Back here in the USA, during the insanity of the 2016 election, I worked on the tech team of a news organization. I would hear many of the journalists talking about the burgeoning Trump campaign with equal parts dread and fascination and as it became clear that he would be the front runner and that he drove traffic like crazy, we were going to be covering him. But no matter how crazy or unsavoury the stories were, they were always under a mandate from on high that “the other side” must be covered equally, that we had to point out their flaws as well less we be labeled a “pinko rag” and have all of our funding pulled by the money men. So we were forced to say Mussollini and Michael Scott (David Brent) were equally bad.

What’s this got to do with Football? Well, I’m a long time reader of this site…since 2003. I remember the days of the Neville diaries and the first 16 conclusions. And for the first time in a long time I’m no longer making you my first stop of the day…and at this point I think you are literally being forced to back the PGMOL and call Klopp and Arteta “nutcases” for daring to point out that the game is officiated by a group of middle aged Brits who’s knee jerk response to any criticism is “HOW DARE YOU!!!”

The issue is not VAR as your resident boomer troll loves to scream. The issue is the men. They are what needs to go.

Do I think there is an organized conspiracy against Arsenal? No.
Do I think there are a whole lot of refs who have unconscious bias against Arsenal? Hell Yes!
Some that blame Wenger for getting rid of “drinking culture” in football and ruining all the “Fun”
Some blame him for fielding the first lineup with no English players
Some buy the line Allardyce bullshit of “Arsenal just don’t like it up” and therefore we are whiners for objecting to being brutalised.
In any other profession in the world, if a coworker intentionally hit you in the head – Elbow or forearm, you would file a police report.

So do I think the brushed aside the complaints against Guimares because “Arsenal are whiners”? Yes
Do I think they looked at all reasons to chalk off that goal and said, “Nah, it’s a perfectly good goal, f*ck Arsenal!” Yup, I do think that. And nothing but the audio disproves that.

So yeah, disagree with me, fine…but the fact that you’ve now taken to openly mocking Arteta for simply wanting the game to be fair is galling. And again, I thought Klopp was correct when it was him too.

Fire them all, bring in some Germans or Canadians or something. The PGMOL is not fit for purpose.
Josh, Arsenal, Quincy, Mass

The futility of comparison
Repeat after me: There *clap* Is *clap* No *clap* Science *clap* In *clap* Comparison.

There are so many variables in football management that trying to “science” who is the better manager is simply impossible. Trust me, no matter how proud you are of that statistic, that you’ve twisted in your image, that categorically proves your man is better than their man, there are another two statistics giggle behind a curtain that disprove the theory, and then there are another two under the bleechers after that which back you up and then there’s another two… etc etc, and on and on, ad nauseum.

It works with players slightly more to a degree, because they are the artist and the broad strokes they paint with are right there front and centre, but even then comparing Haaland with Henry is akin to saying Van Gogh knocks ten bells out of Rembrandt because you’ve seen more Van Gogh paintings in elite art galleries, it’s still all subjective because they lived in different times, in different teams, with different colleagues that offered different positives and negatives (Henry and Haaland, not Van Gogh and Rembrandt. Although…).

Comparison can and should only be used with a very light touch. Is it really that impressive that Erik Ten Hag, an experienced manager taking over (arguably) the most successful club in British history has more wins per game at this point than a relative amateur who took over the (arguably) third most successful club in British history? Klopp took over (arguably) the 2nd most successful club in British history, but they hadn’t won anything in over a generation, so you could say Klopp took over a club that hadn’t won a title in 30-odd years. See? Everything comes with caveats.

Again, none of this is to say you cannot compare, just maybe don’t act like you’ve cracked the code and can categorically prove beyond a doubt that your opinion is a fact because it isn’t, champ. It’s just that, an opinion.
Harold “won’t someone please think of the science” Hooler
P.S. Things were quiet there for a few days, it was nice wasn’t it? People were talking and having reasoned debates and the conversation flowed.

…I see many a United fan weighing in to tell us about Ten Hag’s first 50 games and how he compares with other managers and the problem with these kinds of numbers is that they can be illustrated and spun in all sorts of ways. Stats are ridiculously complicated.

So here’s a different spin. After 25 games, Ten Hag had an amazing win rate of 72%. But after 50, he has a win rate of 60%. Does this not mean, then, that in games 26-50, he had a win rate of 48%? And assuming that my back of a packets of fags calculations are correct, is this a) not a far more damning figure and b) a strong indication that the team is going backwards and more significant?

I’ll counter this by also pointing out that comparisons with the first 50 game of Arteta and Klopp are not entirely linear, as many have commented – indeed such comparisons would only really work if the managers were managing the same group of players – then we would get a good indication of who the better manager was, but as it is, they joined different clubs in different places. Ten Hag has not been a disaster, and he still isn’t, but the team has been less successful in his second tranche of 25 games – there can be little doubt about this.

We’ll really know where they are at after they have played more games against teams ahead of them – and so far, games against Arsenal, Tottenham, Brighton and Man City have been entirely pointless for United, and to me that is also far more telling than using one cherry picked stat.
Matthew (Chelsea are getting away with it though)

…I know that the Manu fans are a bit tetchy when they’re team is criticised but what’s with the need to compare ETH’s match winning stats with Arteta’s?

It assumes that both teams were in the same state when managers took over. Is day they were nothing like.

The season ETH took over they finished 5th and the season before 2nd. Not exactly a basket case in the scheme of things.

Arteta took over a team that had been outside the top 4 since 2016/7 , finished 5th the season before he started and 8th in the season he took over. He then had the whole Ivan Gazidis & Raúl Sanllehí shambles and then the COVID situation to deal with. Much more basket case.

The squads that they took over and had vastly different capabilities and problems, not to mention recruitment, academies, scouting and financial muscle.

Ignoring all that and doing a direct comparison based on just the stats makes you seem a bit simple.

But whatever, if it makes you happy, be dim and do your Manager A < Manager B because of their win percentage after 50 games.
JT

Man Utd aren’t flying after all
Some interesting takes from Calvino and Simon MUFC on my email yesterday.

Calvino mentions that we all saw how an injury crisis affected Liverpool in 20/21.

In November 2020 Liverpool:
Were top of the league
Had suffered only 1 defeat.
Were unbeaten at home.
Were Top of their CL group.
They also had a positive gd.
This was with just free transfer Matip as the only first choice centre back available(his season ended in December) & having played games alongside Fabinho, Henderson and Nat Philips meaning Liverpool had 19 different centre back pairings that season.

By contrast In November 2023 Utd:
Sit 6th in the league.
Have lost 9 of 18 in all competitions.
Have lost 3 at home.
Are bottom of their CL group.
Have a negative gd in the PL AND the CL.

Liverpool were still top in January and were playing Henderson and Fabinho at centre half. Utds current “injury crisis” is so bad they have to play an £80m centre back next to a £30m centre back, with a £30m left back and have a £47m centre back, a £70m midfielder and an £86m forward all on the bench…and a £75m signing not in the squad as he won’t apologise.

Simon MUFC compares Fergie and Klopp and their European trophy wins and league titles.
Klopp won the CL and PL in 4 full seasons.
Fergie had Utd in 13th his 4th full season and “Ta ra” Fergie banners were springing up at every game Utd played.

I think you’ll also find Simon, I said to compare the second full seasons of each.
Klopp lost 5 PL games all season, was unbeaten at home and made a CL final.
ETH has already lost 5 PL matches, has already lost 3 home games AND is bottom of his CL group. Even though his second full season isn’t halfway through, I think you’ll find Klopp has already outdone ETH.
Gussy, Ireland.

…Dear Calvino, What you put in your email was so utterly incompetent it gave me a migraine.

Pochettino has only had 12 games or something, whereas ten hag has a full season. Yeah they conceded 4 vs city, but guess what? This might shock you, but we also scored FOUR. That means the game ends equal for both teams. As far as I can recall, that is not 1, not 2, not 3, but 4 more than united managed against city.

Also in regards to spending, since 12/13, both Chelsea and City have been just a little bit more successful. Just a champions league each, at least 2 premier leagues, whatever domestic cups, etc. You know, nothing that important.
Didn’t united only win one carabao? Pretty terrible for 1.88 Billion euros, yeah?

Injury crisis? Every big club has one right now. Manchester City without de Bruyne, stones. Chelsea without Nkunku, chilwell, badiashile, fofaba, colwill, and add Reece James to that list when he gets injured inevitably. Newcastle missing both their strikers, etc.

The point is that with Ten Hag spending 400 Million dollars is that there shouldn’t be an injury crisis.

And late goals? Are you kidding me?

Didn’t Scott mctominay have to bail you guys out vs brentford? Galatasary should’ve already been winning because Icardi missed a pen, Bayern absolutely abused you. City destroyed you guys regardless, and you guys needed one goal vs luton.

The difference between ten hag and arteta, Pochettino, guardiola, whatever, is that while ten hag’s team might not be that far down the pl table, it is a matter of time with the way you’re playing and the lack of any coherent team stiructure or plan. Winning by the skin of your teeth against smaller sides and getting destroyed by bigger ones is not sustainable.

Why is mason mount, Antony, and martial starting then? Ten hag is deliberately making things harder for himself by spending (excluding martial) upwards of 160 million on that duo. Pretty f*cking dumb right?

Also, spurs and arsenal were missing world-class players like saliba, Maddison, van de ven. These kinds of players in this economy are worth upwards of 80 million. Now that’s not to say arteta and ange shouldn’t have managed their workload better or brought in an understudy, but the crux of the matter is that they were missing world class players.

United’s cbs, cdm, and rb are absolutely sh*t. Not that hard to get couple 20mil replacements, or get rio Ferdinand out of retirement so you can loan him in(what’s the logic there? Too poor to buy them?). Come to think of it, united have not bought ANY center backs besides Lisandro Martinez (currently proving last seasons haters right) for 54 million. Surely there was a van de ven (43 million) or badiashile (35 mil) or malo gusto, max aarons, etc, etc. you’ve brought this crisis on yourselves, or more specifically Ten Hag has.
Ben White, Chelsea

Mind the gap
I see Calvino making a case for Man United’s position, claiming they are only 6 points behind Arsenal.

The problem there is that we are only (less than) 1/3 of the way through the season.

I look forward to Calvino shouting about how brilliant United did to finish only 18 points behind Arsenal in May.
Mark, Cork

Kroenke listened
Since you asked Lee: “how come Arsenal fans are never protesting Kroenke anymore? Could it be because they were just sore losers looking for someone to blame?”

Arsenal fans are obviously happier now because we’re winning more and challenging again. We asked for more engagement from the owners and we got it, Josh Kroenke is now far more present and involved. We asked for more interactions with fans, and they now consult with the Arsenal Supporters Trust and other groups. We asked for more investment, and they duly obliged. Heavily.

But mostly we wanted to be less shit. And we are. Looking for someone to blame? Obviously yes, we were. We correctly blamed the owners. Sore losers? No. Sad at losing a lot is not the same.

Despite some of the incredible mental gymnastics and selective blindness (on Champions League form) deployed by Man U fans in yesterday’s Mailbox, I do agree with the core point. It’s not so bad over there. Ten Hag is a good manager, he’s made some good signings, he’s done a good job of cleaning up the shite he chose to dive into, and overhauling the squad he inherited. Give him time and he’ll do well. Annoyingly.
Alay, North London Gooner

The case for the defence
Mailbox correction on City financial charges #37461295:

Dear Ian H,

Guardiola was not at the club for basically any of the allegations listed against Man City.

And these are allegations, they are not proven.

And City have had the most investigated accounts in the history of modern football and have still not had a single accusation of financial wrongdoing proven against them by any court, at any time, ever.

And no, you still don’t understand what time barring issue was and why you claiming it was the reason CAS ruled for City is incomprehensibly stupid.
Paul, Manchester

Early sugar daddies
Reading Lee’s email regarding Abramovich being the first owner to pump his own money into a club, did Lee forget Jack Walker ever existed?
Matt

Best league in the world?
I had a quick trip back to the UK the weekend just gone. Whilst I was there, I was able to take in an actual game in an actual stadium.

West Ham v Notts Forest.

It was terrible football. Best league in the world, my arse! I feel sorry for WHU fans having to watch their team go backwards pretty much everytime they get possession. As for Forest. Well, they somehow lost to a poor West Ham side.

Still, made it to the pub to see Chelsea v City, so you know, every cloud and all that.

I miss a decent draught Guinness.
Stu – Gooner (and thankful for being one after seeing the WHU game) in France