Why the Chelsea negativity? They are set up perfectly to dominate as soon as Guardiola leaves
It looks like a mess at Chelsea but on closer inspection they are putting everything in place to dominate once Pep Guardiola leaves Manchester City.
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Chelsea chaos will get worse
It’s difficult to see how Chelsea can possibly meet the financial regulations imposed by the Premier League. The selling of property to themselves and selling of academy prospects for suspect fees will certainly help but even with these measures they will be walking a tightrope at best. However I think the focus will soon shift away from PSR and back to UEFA regulations.
European financial rules, FFP as we all know it, was replaced by FSR a few years back and the defining restriction of the revised rules will soon start to bite. UEFA’s Squad Cost rule basically states that the total annual cost a club’s squad (wages, transfers, fees etc) cannot exceed 90% of the club’s total annual revenue. However the threshold drops to 80% of revenue for 2024 and drops again to 70% for 2025 where it will remain at that level.
Now I’m certainly no financial expert and my brain pickles when trying to figure out profit and loss statements but from their own reporting in 2023 Chelsea’s wage bill alone was at 80% of total revenue. Noting they have added significantly more to their squad since then it seems logical this number hasn’t decreased significantly. When adding in the extra transfer costs they’re probably looking at nearly 100% of total revenue and thus will surely fall foul of UEFA’s revised restriction leading to penalties.
Whilst they are seen as clowns the American owners of Chelsea are surely aware of this and have a plan in place. Whatever that plan is will have to be significant in scope and possibly quite dramatic in its delivery. I can only imagine the acquisition of considerable debt, a fire sale of major assets, or direct legal action against UEFA and the PL to stop any sanctions.
However it plays out I looks likely the chaos at Chelsea will only get worse over the coming years.
Dave, Manchester
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Hi F365,
There’s so much negativity surrounding Chelsea these days, I thought some calm facts might help to bring some much needed positivity to the Chelsea fanbase.
I admit – on the surface, it looks like a sh*tshow at the f**k factory (credit to Shiv from Succession) but that’s only if you take a short term view e.g. have we any chance of challenging for a title this season?
The answer is “no” – we won’t challenge for the title this season and we may not challenge for the title next season either; however, the Chelsea board aren’t multi-billionaires by accident.
It’s so easy to stand at the sidelines and crack jokes about the Ted Lasso figure of Todd Boehly and the unfathomable amounts of money he has spent on a whole new team of players and the sacking or selling of players and back room staff.
Here’s a few positive thoughts for my Chelsea friends:
One of the most urgent issues on the new owner’s ‘To Do List’ was to stop the never-ending cycle of hire manager, buy players for that manager’s system, fire that manager, and repeat Ad Infinitum.
All Chelsea fans will know that until recently, we still had players from Mourinho’s second spell and Mauricio Pochettinho and everything in between.
We’ve had high lines, low blocks, 3 at the back, 4 at the back, double pivots, 3 man midfields, number 10s, false 9s – my point is – we’ve tried a multitude of different systems and styles, but, because we generally only keep a manager for an average of approx. 18 months, it’s easy to see how we ended up with a mix mash of players and styles and a hugely inflated squad without any clear identity.
Let’s be serious – Enzo Maresca is not the answer for Chelsea long-term but he has the knowledge to be able to start turning us into a 4-3-3 monster like Man City, Liverpool, Real Madrid etc.
The Chelsea owners know he won’t be here – that’s why his contract have year-by-year early termination clauses where Chelsea won’t have to pay out the full amount of his long contract – they only pay him for the seasons he works for us.
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My impression is that the Chelsea owners wanted someone to come in and build a squad to play the Man City style of football which Pep has perfected and which his other apprentice Arteta has since evolved to his own success with Arsenal.
Will Maresca be here in 2 years? No – but the owners need someone to take the heat while we change to Pep’s 4-3-3. This season will be clumsy – we saw that in pre-season – but it’s worth a fallow year this season and next if it means we’re able to properly maintain an ongoing challenge for the premier league and the champions league each season.
Realistically, the 26/27 season is when Chelsea will seriously challenge for a title again and we can expect this coming season and the season after to be incremental improvements including Top 4 finishes and / or domestic cup victories.
By the 26/27 season, we will have a clear identity and we will be playing a Pep style system for which we will have the ideal squad. Maresca will likely be long gone by then but the change has to start somewhere and that’s probably why they knew they were better off with a low profile manager (I had never heard of Enzo Maresca before he was appointed as the new Chelsea boss).
Maresca has signed up to be our sacrificial lamb – he will be ridiculed and he will be a scapegoat – but none of this change is possible without him.
In summary, let’s give the owners a chance to implement their 3 – 5 year plan before we start making harsh judgements on them being “billion pound bottlejobs” – did anyone really expect Chelsea to be handed over from almost 20 years of Roman’s ownerships and, within a 3 or 4 month period, have to buy the club, familiarise themselves with it and start building it up from the bottom up and from the top down.
In my head – I see the last 2 seasons as collateral damage which was completely unavoidable but I really believe that, although this season will have plenty of peaks and troughs (and probably more troughs than peaks), remember, year 3 and year 4 are about getting ready for the title challenge in the 26/27 season.
If nothing else, I hope this email might offer some respite to the battle-weary Chelsea fans who don’t recognise their own club and are starting to lose hope of ever returning to the top.
The modernday 24/7 news cycle clickbait assault on the senses drives sensationalism and adds to the feeling of misery around the club but remember – a club is more than any player and it’s more than any owner – we were successful under Roman because of his money – not because of him – similarly here with Clearlake – Todd Boehly and his pals have already shown they’re happy to spend money on big players while also investing in youth. If you gave me the choice between what Newcastle are doing and what Chelsea are doing, I can assure you, we will reach the premier league and champions league promised land long before Newcastle do.
If you look for the positives then you will find them – just think how great it will be to start finding a new manager – when Maresca is eventually sacked – we can go for a bigger name with better experience at managing this exact system but ideally at a higher level.
We don’t have to fall victim to trying to grab whatever ‘flavour of the month’ manager is available and then muddle our way through their system and recruit for them only to then abandon that manager, that style and that group of bespoke players as soon as cracks start to appear – instead, when Maresca goes, we just find a better Maresca – we don’t find a better group of players to play the new manager’s style – we just hire better managers who fit the existing style of play and the existing squad.
I think that was one of Clearlake’s primary objectives when they first took over and after 2 years they’ve done ok – 10th place and 6th place – we’re moving in the right direction – let’s not forget it took Klopp and even the almighty Pep at least one year if not two (for Klopp) to get back into the top 4 and that was without the government forced fire sale which Chelsea had to navigate for the last couple of years.
Anyone who deals with Mergers and Acquisitions knows that any acquisitions have to pass through the forming, storming, norming and performing stages of organisational development.
Chelsea are no different – I think we’re past the forming stage and we’re in the storming stage which means we need to expect the sh*tshow – this season and maybe next season too – we must remember that we will move on to the norming and performing stage but probably not before some more heartache and disappointment.
Don’t expect a title challenge this season only to be disappointed by the unavoidable losses to smaller teams and hammerings by City or Arsenal but the tide will turn and this system will work and Chelsea will challenge and win titles again.
Chaos and trophies has always been the Chelsea model – we’ve had plenty of the former and we are probably due a little more of it – but the trophies will follow.
By the time Pep leaves City, I think we’re well set up to become the ‘new’ City where we will be the dominant force in the premier league and in Europe for a number of seasons.
If you look at the current ‘crisis’ situation at Chelsea like a purely unavoidable 3 – 5 year change management plan, it certainly helps to add some perspective and take some of the negativity out of how Chelsea fans are feeling.
The cream always rises to the top and Chelsea are the cream of London and we will be the cream of England and Europe again – just wait and see.
In the meantime, let’s just be as supportive to the team, the players, the manager and the owners as we can be because more negativity won’t help Chelsea fans and our PL rivals are really enjoying seeing us deflated and kicking us when we’re down – let’s see who’s laughing in 26/27.
Mark! My! Words!
Thanks.
Tim (CFC) – Ireland
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Why Arsenal ‘have to’ win the league
The formulation that Arsenal “have to” win the league pre-supposes that they can. No one is saying it about Chelsea or United because no one thinks it’s realistic for them this season (those saying Arsenal had to win the league after the summer transfer market in 2021 were quite obviously being disingenuous, a top 4 challenge was beyond most people’s expectations.)
No one’s even saying it about Liverpool despite a strong/sustained last year because
1. They petered out badly toward the end last season
2. Post-Klopp transition
3. They haven’t strengthened
I would say that Arsenal “have to” win a trophy this year because that is both very realistic and because, if it doesn’t happen, it’s 5 years since Arsenal last one a trophy and it’s back to the dreaded Trophy Drought Banter.
If there’s no trophy, awkward questions will begin to be asked of Arteta, justified or not. Realistically, it needs to be the PL or CL for there to be a sense that Arsenal have capitalised on a fantastic crop of players. That doesn’t “have to” happen this season but I would say it does “have to” happen eventually for Arteta to cement his legacy as an elite manager.
But I mean, aside from that, no one ever “has to” do anything really!
-Finbar
There is no ‘Top 8′
There also wasn’t a “big six”. Both are an illusion. There’s a one. That one is Manchester “115” City. Talking about the rest as if they’re part of the conversation is just distracting from the fact that the league has been reduced to this.
Without Klopp’s work, it would seven in a row. Luckily, it’s merely four.
This dominance is not unprecedented. Both Manchester United and Liverpool have done seven league titles out of a decade, but you have to feel that if Pep wanted to, he could top that. Probably by two. Thankfully, it sounds like he’s bored of doping here. I look forward to where his brand of ‘sporting merit’ shows up next.
Andrew M, London
Come hold me tight
While we’re on the subject of things that annoy us about modern football and trite statements that mean nothing, can we relegate all variations of “if they don’t win it now they never will”. It’s not said about a manager or a team, it’s always the club. Are you seriously saying that if Arsenal don’t win the league now they never will again? Never? Not once from now until the heat death of the universe? Shut up Twitterists.
Second, can we stop calling every cup trophy or tinpot shield a “title”? It’s not a title, it’s a cup. There’s only one title and it’s the league. I know this came from managers who don’t have English as their first language but Bob from Manchester has no such excuse. Shut up Bob.
And finally, there’s only one “the treble”. You can’t win the League Cup, Charity Shield and the Hyundai Trophy and claim to have won “the treble”. You won “a treble” and not a particularly good one. Shut up everyone who talks about winning “the treble” that’s not “the treble”.
Literally everything said about football now is hyperbole…
SC, Belfast
Hilarious campaign
I love it when someone/something has a hilarious campaign of making someone/something else look very silly.
So I am very annoyed that I have missed the statedly hilarious campaign.
Can ‘Fulham fan’ Tim Sutton let me in on it please?
J Belfast
Super League
I sometimes think America’s great strength is they are the best salesmen. They have created some very average products but sold the hell out of them. Budweiser is a bland generic lager, but their marketing people declare it the king of beers and they sell it all over the world. Coca-Cola is virtually poison, but they have sold oceans of it. McDonald’s – need I say more. The British on the other hand, very much the opposite. Lots of great innovations, but far too restrained to be good at actually selling them around the world.
So it has always struck me as slightly odd that the Premier League has become the most popular national sporting competition in the world while the Americans have struggled to export their sporting products. Their marketing hype may claim 4-billion people are watching the Superbowl, but in reality, American sport remains a niche market outside the US. The PL on the other hand genuinely is watched all over the world. It is not just hype. Travel around the world and you will find large numbers of followers almost wherever you go.
How did the PL achieve this position of global pre-eminence? Well to begin with, it is a good product. The most popular sport in the world played at a high-octane pace by top quality players. There is no denying it makes great drama.
However, there was one other magic ingredient that truly sealed the success of the PL. They offered new fans a guarantee of glory. All they had to do was support Man U and there would be endless happiness. And for the more hipster global audience, we offer you Liverpool or Arsenal. There is enough glory to go round and you need a bit of competition.
It was a strategy that the PL openly admitted they followed. If these big-name clubs could have constant success, they could sell that to fans around the world. It was like a happy pill for a global audience, all served up with the glorious pretence of jeopardy. Of course they loved it.
So while the Americans foolishly messed around with outdated ideas like sporting fairness, the PL gave the people what they really wanted. They created a structure where these few teams must succeed. Just choose one of them and be happy. The PL was established as the most popular league in the world followed by a global audience of happy fans.
That is the way it was intended to remain. But slowly, rather like chaos theory in Jurassic Park, football found a way. First there was Chelsea and Abramovich. That wasn’t a big problem because there was room at the table for four. But then Man C came along and really spoilt the party. Spurs somehow poked their noses into the mix. And now Newcastle and Aston Villa are trying to get a slice of the cake.
Johnny Nic thinks the PL cannot sustain interest with only 8 competitive teams. I think he is missing the mark on where the problem lies. The problem isn’t that there are only 8 competitive teams. That actually makes it the most competitive PL ever. Their problem is 8 is too many for the global market. If there are 8 teams capable of challenging for the prizes, then there will not be enough glory for their chosen 3. The fans of those 3 clubs were entirely happy with an uncompetitive league where the top 4 was guaranteed. It worked for more than a decade and they still hark back to that period as the golden era of the PL.
The global audience doesn’t want competitiveness. They signed up for success and they are not getting enough happy pills anymore. But the PL is established and many of them have bought in to such an extent that they will keep following.
For the domestic audience, having potentially 8 big teams is a massive improvement. We hope it becomes more. Unless you support one of the chosen three or Chelsea, the first 20+ years of the PL was tedious. It was a predictable closed shop entirely dominated by the financial power of four clubs. Of course the PL is still dominated by financial power, but with 8 big teams, it has the potential to not be so predictable.
So I am left conflicted. I should be happy that we have the best league (it really is), that I get to see great players and fantastic football. I should be happy that my team is now considered one of the big clubs again. And that one day they might even win something again. But it is hard to forget that the PL success was achieved by selling out all pretence at sporting integrity. Maybe that was the price we had to pay to have the bestest league in the world. It has a chance now to move back in the right direction.
If only Everton and Leeds could sort themselves out, we might actually have our own super league.
Jim (THFC)
A few things
I think they should remove the champions league places for finishing 2nd to 4th and give them both to the cups.
Not only would it make the cups premier competitions again it would be amazing to see a minnow get in the champions league.
On the subject of Liverpool I see a lot of fans melting down because we haven’t signed anyone yet. And while I admit that Richard Hughes summer long pursuit of a player who said from day 1 he didn’t want to leave has me wondering if Richard Hughes is really ed Woodward in a very convincing rubber mask I don’t think it’s panic stations.
We finish third last year with these players , playing a bad tactical system badly. With a good tactical system that doesn’t rely on full game sprints and leaving gaping holes at the back I see no reason why we can’t at least do the same. Historically speaking Dutch managers tend to be good cup manager over there and nothing more so I’ll just hope arne slotsnegger brings home some cups. I’m happy to wait a year and see who fits his system and who doesn’t.
On the subject of Chelsea is anyone really surprised? I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention but for a very long time Chelsea’s model has been to buy talented young players and sell them for a quick profit to fund the first team. There’s genuinely nothing new right now except boehly is loud and annoying and Roman was trying not to alert anyone that he’s parking illegally obtained money in UK properties and businesses. I do agree with the chap who complained that good managers shouldn’t need to keep replacing every player to fit their ‘philsophy’ it’s one of the things I like about Carlo he rarely does the signing of players and just uses whatever he’s given by the man in charge and tries to get a decent tune out of it.
Finally… arsenal fans are quiet.. normally about now they’re jibber jabbering about how this year they’ll win the league. Perhaps they finally realised when city is your competition it’s better to shut up until you’re 19 points ahead in march. We did try to tell you it’s a bit bloody hard winning a title against the middle eastern money train.
Lee