Salah is no Henderson; Liverpool won’t sell. And why Newcastle will back Howe (or call Big Sam)
The idea that a cash-strapped Mo Salah will push to leave Liverpool, who would happily sell a contracted player in his prime, makes absolutely no sense.
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The whys and the Howes of the Newcastle job
No, Eddie Howe should not be sacked. [pauses for eyeroll-induced pain] Not right now.
I probably consider Eddie Howe less able than he actually is, so please don’t take this as a fanboy defense. But I cannot even imagine a manager like Jose Mourinho signing up with a Newcastle club that has virtually nothing in the transfer tank.
Yes, NUFC’s majority owners are the richest people in the world, but without big-money player sales (meaning Bruno or Isak, maybe Gordon, Joelinton or Botman), FFP rules leave the club limited to low-value signings in January.
I don’t foresee big signings in the summer, either, because the buyout year and its associated January spending – designed, we should remember, to ensure the club was not relegated and wildly successful to that end – still count toward the three-year loss calculation.
They will no doubt pull a new commercial deal or two out of the hat, but at the moment, Newcastle have few enticements to offer beyond wages. I assume that the cost of manager contracts (and their breaking) counts against the club’s FFP books, so even the wages the club can offer are probably limited to some extent.
Newcastle’s ownership and non-football management teams have been judicious and realistic from the moment they took ownership of the club, and I don’t see why that would end now. I believe they’ll still consider themselves ahead of schedule and on course, despite an alarming dip in form from time to time.
Howe is a guy they hired explicitly for the long term, and despite recent results he’s continuing to get performances from most of the squad. Bruno hasn’t been as effective as he once was, but injuries around him have forced him to take more and more responsibility; opposing teams target him, and Miley/Longstaff/Joelinton don’t seem able to relieve the burden.
Some players have reached the end of their development envelopes: Almiron (saying this breaks my heart), Burn (who is limited enough that he often fails even while playing out of his skin) and perhaps a few others. Amidst an injury crisis, dips in form like Miggy and Trippier have seen can just make things not work.
READ MORE: Howe’s last game? Ten Hag, Man Utd desperate for escape? Six pre-FA Cup third round narratives
The owners – and I largely mean the Staveley-Reuben group, as PIF have been conspicuous by their absence of involvement in team affairs – have charted a course that a rough sea won’t force them to abandon, and that means that Eddie Howe is probably safe for now. But not forever.
If Howe leads the Toon to a major trophy, it might even surprise the owners. I don’t think they really expect it of him. Rather, he’s overseeing a Brightonization of the club’s operations, buying wisely to compete and investing in young players that may someday be worth a fortune, because that’s the only way to succeed under FFP in the long term. (Manchester City is the aspiration, here, but Brighton show the path because Ashworth installed it there, too.)
Kalvin Phillips may arrive on loan, but the most convincing actual transfer rumour I’ve heard about Newcastle regards Rory Finneran, a youngster from Blackburn Rovers. It’s just not the move that a club with a very limited transfer budget would take if they’re about to hire some high-profile replacement for Eddie Howe. It’s the kind of move a club makes when it’s investing in future squad value and trusts its manager to improve the players at his disposal.
There will come a day when Eddie Howe will be replaced by a manager who could lead us to lasting glory, but that day will not come this season, unless relegation should threaten. In which case, the only karmic possibility for our salvation will surely be Sam Allardyce, and that’s not a fate that bears thinking about.
Chris C, Toon Army DC (Why write in to complain about Diogo Jota’s dive when I can just sneer at him?)
I may well be being too harsh here but given all the plaudits Eddie Howe has got for what he’s done at Newcastle, him and his shiny haired assistant need to take an equal amount of responsibility for their current form and situation.
You’ll hear frequently that Howe spent time at Ateltico Madrid watching Simeone’s way of playing and that’s translated into the ultra high work rate and defensive effort that you see across the team. He’s gone for full on effort both going forwards and backwards. This approach was very effective but he’s knackered all his players and the injury list is mounting and decision-making errors are occurring as a direct result. It’s almost as if he’s playing full premier league speed with full Simeone intensity and everyone’s run out of gas.
The injuries and poor form aren’t just bad luck – they are a direct result of how he’s had them all playing for the last year or so. Other high level teams have either been playing high intensity for longer and are more used to it or very often build in passages of play to slow games down and control possession more – giving them a chance to recover.
Time for Howe to tweak how his team plays if he is to hold on to his job. He’s done a great job for sure, but he better evolve again quick
Duck
All true Newcastle United fans support Eddie Howe, people who don’t have short memories remember where Newcastle United were when Eddie took over.
THE MAGPIE
Salah stays
Looking at your list of predictions, and included is the much expected departure of Salah for the Saudi riches. Maybe it’s just my obvious bias as a Liverpool fan, but I can’t see this happening.
Firstly, why would Salah leave for Saudi? We’re not talking about a 37 year old Ronaldo here. Or a 35 year old Benzema. Mo Salah is 31, and turns 32 in June. He’s in the absolute prime of his career. Unless he has a serious drop off, he’s on track for his highest goal tally since 2017-18 and his highest assist tally ever. He is in the absolute top tier of professional footballers.
We still all have the mindset of 30 is basically past it, but that’s no longer the case. Messi, Ronaldo, Modric, Benzema all won the Ballon D’or older than Salah is now and were all playing at the top level at 35 or beyond. He keeps himself in peak physical condition and there is no reason he can’t do the same. He could easily play for the next 6 years if he wanted to. Does he really want to do that in Saudi?
READ MORE: Arteta sacked, Salah sold, Ten Hag stays at Man Utd and other football predictions for 2024
He’s also a guy who seems utterly determined to win. He wants to win more trophies and despite having won everything at Liverpool, I’m sure he’d like to win some of those trophies again. Or perhaps win elsewhere. His contact expires next year and he would have his pick of clubs around Europe. Madrid, PSG, Bayern? I’m sure they’d all offer him a healthy wage. Surely that would have more appeal than the Saudi league?
All that Saudi can offer is money. Most of the players that have gone there are going for a final payday. But Salah isn’t exactly short on cash. This is not like Jordan Henderson who saw the opportunity to make silly money for a couple of years, before his earnings rapidly diminish. Mo Salah could retire today and live a lavish lifestyle on his image rights alone. He’s estimated to make over a million pounds a week at Liverpool, when you factor in endorsements and image rights.
Salah is in his prime, is ambitious and has many years left at the top level. He could stay at Liverpool and become their second highest goal scorer, and in the conversation for their greatest ever player. Or he could do one more year, then take his pick of clubs in Europe. Is he really going to give that all up, just for some extra cash in his already well filled pockets? My guess is no.
Mike, LFC, London
Casting doubt on the Manchester City juggernaut
It’s understandable that City remain favourites for the league given their previous success, but it is by no means as inevitable as Peter Fitzpatrick’s article suggests.
Arsenal have certainly faltered but they remain a good side and capable of putting together a strong set of results.
Salah will obviously be a big loss for Liverpool but they remain the hardest side to beat in the league (one loss since the start of April) but it is also an opportunity for others to step up. Jota, who often takes a while to get back up to speed after an injury, seems to have returned in good nick and Nunez will continue to cause defences a lot of trouble.
At the back Liverpool have the best defensive record in the league despite everyone thinking their defence is porous. I expect them to get between 84 and 90 points, the question then would be whether City will exceed this.
To get 90 points, City will need 50 from their remaining 19 games, a points per game of 2.63. This is exactly what they achieved across the whole of their centurion season, so it is no easy task. To get 85 points, they’ll need to go at a more manageable 2.37 ppg (they’re currently on 2.11) but across a whole season that is 90-point level.
All this is certainly within City’s skill set but it is harder than has perhaps been appreciated, especially when we consider a) that the quality of the league seems higher than in previous seasons while b) the very best teams are not quite as strong as they were across 2017-18 to 2022-23.
City have several question marks over them: we don’t know how strong KDB will be on his return; City have not been able to find a solution to playing without Rodri in case of further injury or suspension; Haaland has subsided from his first season form to become simply outstanding rather than unprecedentedly phenomenal as teams are developing plans for him; Haaland is also clearly carrying some form of injury which may hamper his number of appearances and possibly his effectiveness (though Alvarez is an excellent replacement); how big a miss will Mahrez and Gundogan be as we head into the clutch games; how will City cope with the tricky run of league games that they have in March and April as we get towards the business end of the Champions League.
These are all questions to which City may have excellent answers, as they have in the past, but it’s not as certain as many seem to assume.
One last thing to recall is that while City chased down Liverpool in 2019 and Arsenal in 2023, on 1 Jan 2022 they had a 12-point lead over Liverpool (who had two games in hand) and only won the league by a single point. The point is that City don’t always pull away in the spring, we know that they can be hauled back too! This is a strange season and two wins over teams in the bottom four (City’s Xmas results) doesn’t mean that they are suddenly going to run away with the league!
Andrew, LFC, Cambridge
Stick or twist
Previous selections would suggest that neither LFC or The Gunners will rest important players for the knockout match of the round, what we can deduce is Rice, Saka, Ben White and Trent will all be in the red zone come Duetchland ‘24. Curtis and Elliot are in with a shout of making that squad though – both winners against España last June. Even Joe Gomez as a left back cover isn’t a daft shout.
I can still remember all the Arsenal v Liverpool FA cup semi final replays (possibly four ties?) that happened one Spring. So utterly knackering that neither could eventually benefit.
Hearing rumours about Bobbi Firmino coming back to the premier league made me wish for an in depth , behind the curtain, article on the disillusionment of playing at walking pace in front of 800 ignoramuses in dangerous temperatures.
It would not be surprising in the least (to me) that a legally binding ‘gag’ order exists for each footballing person upon leaving the Middle East being ‘unable’ to criticise the reality. Hence investigative journalism needs to keep sources secret when quoting the preposterousness of that league.
Mind you, there are ‘precedents’ for journalists who report on gulf states so a large pair of cojones will also be required.
In the meantime we can ‘fill in the gaps ‘ with our own imagination and hopefully lampooning of the SillyArse league .
Expect nothing but pleasantries from Steven Gerrard when commenting on his experience.
Emanelo (sp?) will be ear-wigging .
Peter. ( City still favourites for the league for me , unless Rodri were to be crocked ) Andalucia.
Not a genius… but could be one day
Arsenal bait taken…
GK: Raya is £30m not £40. By almost every metric he is better than Ramsdale.
LB: Arteta knows he can’t defend. The team is meant to be set-up to make up for his defensive weaknesses because, checks stats, he has the 5th most progressive passes in Europe. From LB…
CB: Correct
RB: Currently carrying an injury apparently, last season was a key part of the team. Probably overpaid a bit
CDM: You mean the CDM who has been available for, checks notes, 4 games this season and no sign of coming back yet…
No. 8: Maybe work, maybe won’t. Xhaka was perfect for the role but we didn’t want to give a 30 year old a 4 year contract. We’ll know by end of the season is Havertz is it (took Xhaka a long time to get the hang of no.8 after being slated by everyone for years). Probably overpaid a bit.
No.10: Correct
LW: Out of form. 15 goals and 5 assists at 21 in the Premier League last season, will probably turn out fine. For reference, at 21, Salah had played 3 matches for Chelsea and 16 for Fiorentina scoring 6 with 3 assists. Im not worried yet
CF: Are people really this ignorant? Haaland cost £50m + a reported £20-30m for his dad + a reported £30-40m for agents + 375kpw wages. Would we have preferred Haaland? Yes. Could we afford him? No…
RW: Out of form, suffering from Ben Whites injury so gets double tagged every game
I agree with you, Arteta is not a genius. 3 years into his management career, he doesnt know everything yet. Colour me shocked. He is tactically extremely rigid and inflexible, he has Wengers loyalty but then lacks Wengers conviction to play them, his substitutions leave a lot to be desired, he’s obsessive and seems to not take criticism particularly well.
But he’s won the FA Cup with a terrible team, he’s taken us back to Champions League and topped the group, he nearly won the Premier League and until recently we were fun and exciting to watch. What’s not to like?
Rob A (should be an exciting second half of the season) AFC
Very interesting how City went years freely spending hundreds of millions, leaving Arsenal far behind but there’s outrage over how Arteta has spent a fraction of that so far without winning the title. Imagine not having the capacity to comprehend the monster Arsenal is up against
— Flappyhandski (@Faaabianskiii) January 5, 2024
Roll the Dyche
We’ve gone full circle and are back with arguments over the winter break. If you remember we had what seemed like decades of managers, pundits, and journos calling for a more European style Premier League schedule on the off chance that it might help out our England boys at summer tournaments. It was tedious but the calendar boffins eventually relented and pushed some fixtures out of January.
Now however we’ve got perennial underdog Sean ‘I’ve got a bit chip on my shoulder because no Top 6 club hired me’ Dyche complaining that this revised schedule only helps the big clubs.
This latest issue follows a well trodden path by the ‘Ginger Mourinho’. The change to allow 5 subs was also only for the benefit of big clubs too apparently, and then there were years of PFM type comments about the unfair hiring practices of the big clubs and how they wouldn’t go near an English manager.
Is it part of an act? He strikes me as quite a clever person and is clearly a talented manager so surely he can see how narrow minded his complaints are, he must understand the wider context and mitigations. I suppose it could be part of a strategy of siege mentality for his club but it also seems to be a bit personal. In retrospect having Mr Insecurity managing Inferiority Complex FC looks like a match made in heaven.
Dave, Manchester
Decimated
Dear Ed,
I am a massive nerd. I know this, as does any poor sod who has had the displeasure of spending more than three minutes in my company.
As such, I get royally cheesed off when the term “Decimated” is used to mean destroyed or obliterated. It comes from the term to kill one in ten, like a decimal point for instance.
I’m sure Eddie Howe would’ve enjoyed a much better season had the Newcastle squad only been decimated by injuries.
Ta muchly,
Dave (NERD) PVFC