Man City FFP: Expert expects ‘hefty points deduction’ amid ‘transfer embargo guarantee’

Lewis Oldham
Man City and Premier League badges
Man City are facing 115 charges for alleged breaches of Premier League FFP.

A football finance expert expects Manchester City to be given a “hefty points deduction” if they are guilty of breaching the Premier League’s FFP rules.

Man City are facing 115 charges after being referred to an independent commission over alleged breaches of Financial Fair Play regulations.

Premier League gathered evidence into Man City’s conduct between 2009 and 2018 before launching a legal battle against Pep Guardiola‘s side at the start of 2023.

If found guilty, Man City could be given a huge fine, points deduction, transfer ban or expulsion from the Premier League.

This prolonged saga is nearing a conclusion as it’s been reported that the trial verdict could be announced within the next couple of months.

Earlier this month, a report claimed Man City’s punishment won’t be ‘more serious than a fine’ if they are found guilty, but finance expert Rob Wilson disagrees.

READ: Rashford, Grealish, Nunez among eight PL stars forced to wait for summer transfer amid January links

Wilson expects Man City to be docked “between 20 and 40 points” and has explained why this would be considered a “win” for each party. He also reckons a transfer embargo is “almost a guarantee”.

“I don’t expect them to get relegated,” Wilson said.

“I think there’ll be a hefty points deduction, which I was guessing was going to be around 50, but that was when they were right at the top of the Premier League.

“I think somewhere between 20 and 40 would probably be where they end up landing and probably a transfer embargo in the summer, which might explain why the January activity has been like it is.

“I expect them to get penalised but it’ll be a win for Man City and it’ll be a win for the Premier League because it’ll be the biggest points deduction they’ve ever had but it won’t be enough to really destabilise the football club.”

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He added: “A transfer embargo I think is almost a guarantee because they have to provide some level of sporting sanction which then would explain why they’ve suddenly gone into the market and are signing potentially four players. Well definitely bringing three in I think, aren’t they, potentially four so, yeah.

“The trend that the Premier League has gone with is to do it within the same season. That’s why we had that big foray with Everton, because they had two points deductions in the same season based on the two different PSR accounting periods.”

Despite this, former City advisor Stefan Borson does not think they are preparing themselves for a transfer ban.

He explained: “The bottom line is, I don’t think a transfer ban is the reason they are investing.

“I think the reason they are investing is because they have clearly got very significant issues in the squad and on the pitch, and they urgently need some players after recognising they made a mistake in the summer.

“They are, therefore, a little bit on the back foot, but they are spending money and it wouldn’t surprise me if they keep spending.”