Man Utd ninth in ranking of Premier League clubs by xG

We’ve ranked the Premier League clubs according to their Expected Points (xPTS) this season. Manchester United are lucky sods.

Thanks to Understat for the goods.

20) Burnley
xPTS: 16.10
Actual points: 12
Premier League position: 20th

The worst in both Expected and Real terms.

19) Newcastle
xPTS: 16.55
Actual points: 15
PL position: 18th

A carrot to dangle in front of the transfers.

18) Norwich
xPTS: 16.86
Actual points: 16
PL position: 17th

Slightly less terrible than a truly terrible Watford side last time out.

17) Watford
xPTS: 18.77
Actual points: 14
PL position: 19th

Here’s hoping Roy Hodgson cites this statistic in his first press conference.

16) Leicester
xPTS: 22.48
Actual points: 26
PL position: 10th

The biggest movers of all – very fortunate to be in the top ten.

15) Aston Villa
xPTS: 23.54
Actual points: 26
PL position: 11th

The Steven Gerrard lift as clear as day.

14) Everton
xPTS: 24.89
Actual points: 19
PL position: 16th

Poor old Rafa.

13) Leeds
xPTS: 24.96
Actual points: 22
PL position: 15th

Better than we think clearly.

12) Southampton
xPTS: 25.99
Actual points: 25
PL position: 12th

12th in all the tables.

11) Wolves
xPTS: 26.75
Actual points: 34
PL position: 8th

The greatest positive points minus expected points total of all, they should have conceded ten more goals than the 16 they have. That Jose Sa is brilliant.

10) Brighton
xPTS: 30.97
Actual points: 30
PL position: 9th

xG has not been a kind stat to Brighton for some time, but they’re pretty much where they deserve to be this season.

9) Manchester United
xPTS: 31.75
Actual points: 38
PL position: 4th

Lucky, lucky, lucky.

8) Brentford
xPTS: 32.27
Actual points: 23
PL position: 14th

Unlucky, unlucky, unlucky.

7) Crystal Palace
xPTS: 32.76
Actual points: 24
PL position: 13th

Lots of points dropped late on. Jekyll and Hyde at work.

6) Tottenham
xPTS: 33.12
Actual points: 36
PL position: 7th

Two goals in injury-time against Leicester. There’s your extra three.

5) Arsenal
xPTS: 34.30
Actual points: 36
PL position: 6th

Announce Vlahovic, or Isak, or any striker frankly.

4) West Ham
xPTS: 35.52
Actual points: 37
PL position: 5th

Deserve to be in the Champions League qualification spots, but need to make moves to actually be there and stay there.

3) Chelsea
xPTS: 44.82
Actual points: 47
PL position: 3rd

Should have scored five fewer and conceded five more – a distant third in Expected terms.

2) Liverpool
xPTS: 49.42
Actual points: 48
PL position: 2nd

The only side in the top eight with fewer points than Expected.

1) Manchester City
xPTS: 54.05
Actual points: 57
PL position: 1st

The perennial runaway xG champions.