Man Utd taking a punt on Rasmus Hojlund is safer than putting the house on Harry Kane…

The Mailbox argues why Rasmus Hojlund is a better bet for Man Utd than Harry Kane. Also: Evan Ferguson’s true value; Sofyan Amrabat; and more Saudi conundrums…

Get your views in to theeditor@football365.com…

Hojlund gamble less riskier than Kane
As always with anything involving United, the entire football world seems to have an opinion on the signing of Rasmus Hojlund. When Isak was signed on the back of a worse season (0.42 goal involvements per 90 vs 0.65 goals per 90 for Hojlund – stats for top 5 leagues, cups and European competition) for similar money by Newcastle last summer, I don’t recall the same gnashing of teeth. No one was insisting that Isak had to perform immediately or be branded a flop.

Garnacho has had a similar career to Hojlund thus far, and United wouldn’t sell him for less than £80m. Forwards with potentially elite level talent cost a lot in 2023, transfer fee inflation plus a lack of supply means the fee for Hojlund is about the going rate. Name an elite proper centre forward under the age of 30 that isn’t already at a wealthy club – Osimhen is the only one and he’d cost double what United have spent on Hojlund.

A deal for Kane may “only” cost an extra £40m (a whole Onana extra, which feels somewhat relevant here). Hojlund, signed for £72m, with weekly wages of £80-120k over a five-year deal costs £18-21m a season. Kane, signed for £100-120m, on £400-580k a week over 3-4 years (a 30-year-old isn’t getting a 5-year deal) would cost £45-70m a season. The total deal would be anything from 2-4x the cost. Kane would almost certainly perform better to begin with, but is that enough to offset the difference in cost? Kane alone isn’t going to win us the Premier League or Champions League.

A lot is made of Kane not relying on his pace, and that would justify signing him at 30 as his decline won’t be steep. This may be likely to be the case, but players like Berbatov and Kanu, who were once top level Premier League players, were both done around 30. I don’t think it’s likely in Kane’s case, but age-related declines aren’t linear and a player not relying on his pace is not always an indicator of longevity.

United have made lots of expensive mistakes in the transfer market in the last decade. Signing players on monstrous contracts, that we subsequently can’t shift when they don’t work out, is one we’ve repeatedly made. At least if Hojlund doesn’t work out, his wages won’t be a millstone preventing his sale. The same can’t be said for Kane in the scenario that he pulls an Alexis Sanchez, or even a Robin van Persie.

I have no idea if Hojlund to United is going to work – what I can say for certain is that gambling on him and leaving budget for other positions is significantly lower risk than spending the entirety of this summer’s budget on Kane instead.
Taz, Manchester

…Will Hojlund be under pressure? No questions.

The Harry Maguire/Onana shouting incident made one of BBC’s main news stories. Not just their main sports story, but right up there in the headlines. Not many clubs would have such an incident in the sporting section let alone the main news section.

That’s not mentioning his lack of experience, high price tag, having more eyes on him than almost any other CF, being more or less the only CF at the club and the burden all of that will bring.

I do suspect 10H will ease him in and give him the adequate time/protections, a la Sancho, and realistically, he should only be measuring himself vs who he replaced, and that’s the 0 PL goals of Weghorst.

Regarding him vs Kane, as Tifo did an excellent job explaining, Harry Kane’s fee and wages will go north of 200M, while the Hojlund deal is about 100M. That’s half the price or more, for a player 10 years younger. If in two years time, Hojlund is in the top 3 scorers, and Kane is being Mane’d out of Bayern, this will be justified
Calvino (I hope Harry stays and joins United for free next season though)

…I see knives are out for young Rasmus before an announcement has even been made. A 20 year-old with basically half a season in a top 5 league is being judged by his price by certain folk. I feel like said people have some strange view of football, and that it is played by numbers not human beings.

Three points to make here. Firstly the fee is dependent on a great deal of things such as lengths of contract, position of the clubs, availability of options and so forth. Is it Hojland’s fault there are basically no strikers available anywhere? No, but it pushes up the price. Is it United’s fault that he’s got 4 years left on a new contract? No, but it pushes up the price. Neither of those things are in any way related to his ability to score goals, but the price is what it is. Ferguson would have cost just as much imo, for similar reasons, and is even less proven.

Secondly while it’s a huge fee those with pitchforks out are all presumably fans of other large clubs, and should maybe have a glance out of their glass walls. None can claim to have not bought a Pepe, or a Sane, a Keita, or a Havertz for broadly similar amounts. I’d like to think those fans gave players on their own teams a chance. If he has a similar season to Nunez I’d say that’s fine for a first year, but I’m also sure LFC fans will be calling him out as an expensive flop.

Finally on the Ten Hag needs to compete because he’s spent Xm – I agree progress needs to be shown but focussing on the value ignores an important point. In Pep’s first two seasons he signed 14 players that could be considered for the first team. Assuming United are done, ETH will have managed to get in 7.

So let’s have a bit of patience shall we? Yeah, didn’t think so.
Ryan, Bermuda

Read more: Hojlund the new Haaland? He’s not yet the new Nunez. He needs time Man Utd might not have…

…On Manc in SA’s email re. the finances in signing Hojlund vs Kane,

Even if Kane is just £110m, which is yet to be seen, it doesn’t stand to reason that they’d accept the same from a direct domestic rival that they would from Bayern.

But suppose it is £110m (can’t imagine Charlie Kane demands a chunky Agent’s fee), it isn’t just the transfer fee, is it.

Kane’s salary demands I have seen are for £450,000 a week. Hojlund’s are reported £80k. That means over a five year contract, Kane costs another £117m compared to Hojlund costing 20.8m.

Hojlund, at 20 and on lower wages, has every chance of being sold at a profit in the future. Kane, at 30, on massive wages, almost certainly won’t be sellable at anything near what United would pay for him, so recovery on investment is less difficult to justify for Kane.

I’d like United to sign Kane as much as the next fan, but the financial difference isn’t exactly marginal, is it. How United might have Hojlund money but not Kane money isn’t difficult to grasp.

I like Antony, but am not going to attempt to justify his purchase price and reported £200k a week salary… United got their trousers pulled down there!
Andy (MUFC)

Evan a laugh
It’s a wet and windy August day here but thankfully I was cheered up by the mailbox and the naive, blind hope of some Man Utd fans. 40 million for Evan Ferguson. Brighton’s Evan Ferguson, who is at the start of a five year contract. And is 18 years old but already plays like a seasoned pro. Lads, it’s Brighton. You would be lucky if they even answer the phone. If they do, you’ll be handing over the deeds for Old Trafford and renting it back just so Ferguson could play there every other week. 40 million!
Kevin, Dublin.

Reds revelling in failure
I think it’s time for credit where credit is due at this stage.

Isn’t it time someone properly saluted the work of the Man United transfer committee rewriting the rules on 70-80m transfer flops.

It really is outstanding work, like a painting in a gallery that you have to take several steps back from to appreciate its beauty.

They appear to be assembling a whole team (maybe even squad) that the rest of the football world can look on with in envy and awe. There’s a few gaps but in the past 10 years they’ve bought:

Pogba/Antony/Maguire for 80mil +
Sancho/Lukaka/Hojlund (tbc) for 70mil +
Di Maria/Martial/Wan Bissaka for 50mil + (nothing like a bit of bargain hunting!)

All bar Hojlund unmitigated flops as players. We nearly have a first 11 assembled already.

I mean what exactly is going on here? Can one club really be that bad at spending money as United have.

Their fans are so traumatised they now write emails claiming that if the latest striker scores 10-15 goals then that constitutes success. It simply beggars belief.

Listen I do think ETH is a good coach and is getting them moving in the right direction, but it would be remiss of me and all of football not to stand up at this point and commend the Man Utd transfer committee for a body of work the like of which we may never see again.

It’s like a Vermeer for ABUs, bravo.
Dave LFC

Amrabat to United
I was intrigued by the Mailbox. For a start I read that Klopp had personally contacted Amrabat to recruit him for Liverpool, with the request turned down as the player wants to renew his work with Ten Haag.

I also note that the Saudis have also contacted him and made an offer, with personal terms that are in excess of those offered by United. He has also rebuffed them too.

After a very successful world cup, I am sure ETH is looking for cover for Casemiro, who will obviously be first choice.

So therefore the remarks about not making Fulham’s team is a little wide of the mark.

Regards
Peter Bottomley

Won’t somebody think of the children
I couldn’t disagree more with Ian Hewison’s argument that whether or not one has children should shape one’s views on whether or not one would happily move to and work in a country where simple freedoms are illegal. All opinions are different, but I think I have much more of a responsibility to instil my children with values and morals than I do to ensure they have financially comfortable existences for perpetuity.

I don’t want my children to be rich beyond their wildest dreams. I want them to be good people, and that means providing a role model to them of the person I want them to be. I don’t manage it every day of my life, but I do my best.
Dara O’Reilly, London

Money, money, money
Ian is the latest entrant in the ‘but what if Jordan Henderson uses his money to buy a unicorn that makes everyone smile?’ contest, to see who can make the most unrealistic proposition in defence of wealth-hoarding.

Ian reminds us that “having money opens doors to better healthcare, a better education” but neglects to extend that thought further. Ian, part of the reason for this is the split society created by the wealth-hoarders. It is part of the ongoing efforts to ensure separacy between them and us.

There is no reason for a school in a ‘poor’ area to be worse. There is no reason for a ‘poor’ area to even exist. There is no reason for there to be good schools and bad schools. Isn’t it rather illogical to think that there is any sense in giving greater support to people who don’t need it, while leaving those behind who desperately do?

Healthcare suffers due to greed. The desire to privatise the NHS, and thus move more money from our weary pockets and into the vast piles of our owners, plays a huge part in the split. Funding would not be an issue if the tiny minority weren’t financially destroying us (and if so many of us weren’t willing to go along with this farce).

We are slaves to their system, and within our number are many, many equally-powerless fools who insist that we won’t be whipped if we just work a bit harder. Or, in this case, tell us that maybe the next ruler will be really nice and kind and good to us all.

Ian, which children raised wealthy and separated from society go on to do great things for humanity? Give me some examples. I’ll wait. Because it doesn’t happen. Vast wealth and morals do not go hand in hand, because if you have morals then you cannot have vast wealth. And while Henderson is rich, he is nothing to those with actual financial power. Nothing.

They might set up a foundation. They might have some charity dinners. Maybe turn up somewhere dusty and sad and drop an expensive tear on Instagram. But they’ll do f*ck all. All of these charitable billionaires are a f*cking lie. It’s ego. It’s token gestures to keep the idiots in line. It’s self-aggrandising bullshit, the king throwing pennies to the peasants while his hangers-on praise his benevolence. But the people still starve, even as they praise his name.

You say our purpose is to make a better life for those we love. Well I’m sorry Ian, but in that regard you have failed. Everyone has failed. Because the future of your loved ones is f*cked. You cannot buy your way out of the world they will live in. You could have focused your efforts on trying to change things, but instead you chose money. Most did. So please, when you’re having those awful, painful conversations in the hot, hungry, thirsty future, remember that you defended this. But hey, maybe that unicorn will still be making you smile.

For all of those writing various financial equations for JN and waiting for your gotcha moments, why not spend the time writing to Saudi Arabian businesses begging them to hire you? It feels like it would be a better use of your time. Or just move into sex work. Everyone has a price, right? So get out there and sell sell sell.
thayden

…Firstly, a heartfelt thank you to Ian Hewison. Just when it looked as the interrogation of John Nicholson’s moral compass was over he’s kept it alive for another day of this dreadful preseason.

I won’t bother asking Ian which opportunities Henderson has been depriving his loved ones by working for a measly £6m a year before sponsorship, or how he can be sure that Jordan’s privileged and workshy children and grandchildren won’t become another generation of Tory scum. Unless the scouse republic have decreed that Hendo does indeed have socialist spunk.

But having a go at John’s lifestyle? Not having it.

There was a daft programme on the BBC last week following real estate agents in really tight suits flogging soulless glass boxes in Dubai. Obviously, this being the BBC it was voiced by Will Mellor and glorified the monies paid and made by all involved, but the one thing it didn’t establish was… What the f*ck are you supposed to do there?

They bought the horse racing apparently, so you can do that. And there’s loads of lineker’s pub type things for the expats… but seemingly after that you can just buy stuff?

And that’s Dubai! Gateway to the world etc and famously slightly less intolerant than Saudi Arabia. For whatever little time Henderson actually spends there you can almost guarantee he’ll be in a compound, protected from a world he can’t possibly adapt to. Like a hamster in a cage or Michael Owen in Madrid.

So, Ian’s question on whether he’d work in the office down the road for a pay rise needs to be include living in a box for 9 months a year without friends, family or anything to do other than count/spend your not so hard-earned blood money.
Simon MUFC

Shocked and stunned
So, the Glazers have paused the takeover. Aiyayayayai… I am absolutely shocked. Who could’ve seen this coming?
Money Magnet