Man Utd v Arsenal: One big game, five big questions

Sarah Winterburn

Arsenal’s 4-2 victory over Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday was compelling evidence that Unai Emery is one of the game’s most intelligent and flexible tacticians, which gives us an awful lot to analyse ahead of their trip to Old Trafford on Wednesday night. The Gunners are brilliantly unpredictable – cohesive whatever the formation and difficult to prepare for – which is the polar opposite of their next opponents Manchester United.

The slog at Southampton last weekend could scarcely have been more different to the high-octane tactical battle at the Emirates. Jose Mourinho is getting more defensive as the season goes on, his players becoming increasingly rigid in their movements, and so it is difficult to see how such a low-energy team can keep at bay one firing on all cylinders.

There are a lot of formations to discuss this week (so bear with us), but the upshot is this: no matter how the counters fall on the tactics board, Arsenal look faster, hungrier, and better coached.

 

1) Ramsey or Iwobi: which of his two new formations will Emery go with?
Arsenal seem likely to remain in a back three for the time being, but there are two distinct formations for Unai Emery to choose between; a 3-4-2-1 with Alex Iwobi and Henrikh Mkhitaryan as inside forwards, or a 3-4-1-2 with Aaron Ramsey in a number ten role behind two strikers Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Both were used against Tottenham. Both have unique advantages.

The best aspect of the 3-4-2-1 is Iwobi’s partnership with Sead Kolasinac, which led to both goals in the 2-1 at Bournemouth and put Spurs on the back foot for much of the first half of a complex tactical chess match at the Emirates. When Iwobi tucks inside from the left he drags the opposition inwards, which in turn creates space for Kolasinac on the overlap.

But as Spurs’ midfield grew into the game Emery changed things up, switching to a 3-4-1-2 that has the potential to pummel teams, with three players making runs in behind the defensive line. Ramsey’s movement beyond the Tottenham midfield led to two second-half assists for the Welshman as the narrow front three exploited Mauricio Pochettino’s poor decision to move to a back three.

It is difficult to predict which way Emery will go for the trip to Old Trafford, and whichever formation they start is unlikely to remain for the 90 minutes anyway (he ended the Spurs match in a diamond 4-4-2). But any of the three systems should – in different ways – be capable of breaking down Man Utd…

 

2) Will an energetic Arsenal blitz Man Utd in the second half?
United appear to be getting more negative with each passing week. Mourinho picked seven defensive players for the trip to Southampton, needlessly fielding two conservative midfielders (Ander Herrera and Marouane Fellaini) to support a back five. Unsurprisingly Paul Pogba was left frustrated whenever he got the ball, unable to find a front two that was woefully disconnected from the rest of the team.

The home side’s tentativeness, characterised by risk-averse football and an unwillingness to apply pressure outside their own third, hands the advantage to any opponent with the hunger to snap into challenges and move with speed. Arsenal, fresh from that ferocious second half at Wembley, should be able to swarm and overwhelm the hosts.

If it’s a 3-4-2-1, then Iwobi’s movement will free Kolasinac to break beyond the inexperienced Diogo Dalot (Ashley Young is suspended) and if it’s a 3-4-1-2, Ramsey should make successful runs off the back of the labouring Nemanja Matic.

Arsenal are so good in the second half of matches for two main reasons. First, their quick vertical passing – with multiple runners looking for the through ball – is inevitably more effective when defensive legs begin to tire. Second, Emery is arguably one of the best reactive tacticians in Premier League history. Whatever Mourinho does to stifle the Gunners, Emery will find a way to counteract it in the final 20 minutes. The form guide, not to mention tactical mismatches in the centre and on Arsenal’s left, suggest the visitors can blitz their jaded hosts.

 

3) Or can Lukaku and Rashford pounce early to hit Arsenal on the break?
Unless Mourinho can raise the tempo for the opening 20 minutes, that is. Arsenal’s typical slow starts means Man Utd have the chance to race into an early lead should they press from kick-off and look to counter-attack via Romelu Lukaku and Marcus Rashford. We know they’re capable of rising to the occasion of a big match (remember Rashford’s early double against Liverpool in March?), primarily because this under-coached team are emotional and individualistic. If they fancy it, United can raise the tempo for short bursts.

Arsenal’s back three is not without its flaws, particularly in the opening stages. Bournemouth’s Harry Wilson and Joshua King received the ball to feet far too easily at Dean Court (until Arsenal got a grip of the game), while Heung-Min Son and Dele Alli also found it easy to turn in possession for the first 45 minutes last weekend.

The new shape has clearly led to confusion in moments, which potentially hands an opportunity to Rashford, orchestrator of both United goals against Southampton on Saturday. Should Pogba turn up, he can release Rashford and Lukaku through the middle and expose Arsenal’s problems coping with transitions – a part of their game likely to re-emerge thanks to Granit Xhaka’s suspension.

 

4) Who will win the potentially match-defining battle between Torreira and Pogba?
Granit Xhaka has been one of Arsenal’s best players over the last month, but his fifth yellow card of the season at Spurs means Emery will be forced to play Matteo Guendouzi alongside Lucas Torreira. The young Frenchman is a strong tackler but a little rash positionally, piling extra pressure on Torreira to mop up the loose balls and shut down Pogba – the one man capable of launching a United counter.

The Uruguay international is sharp to the second ball, aggressive in the tackle, and quick to play a forward pass, setting a tempo that even Xhaka has been able to follow. Xhaka has learnt to step up when Torreira does and to release the ball as quickly, together creating a solid screen that has seemingly ended Arsenal’s early season struggle to prevent opposition counter-attacks.

Pogba has an excellent sense of where the space is, slowly feeling out a game in the first ten minutes before striding into gaps around the weakest opponent. Consequently Xhaka’s absence could see the France international leave Torreira scurrying across to cover for Guendouzi, in turn opening up a hole in the middle for Rashford and Lukaku.

 

5) Will Mourinho deploy Martial to exploit the gaps behind Arsenal’s wing-backs?
One reason Emery switched to a back three was to support Kolasinac and Hector Bellerin defensively, both of whom are guilty of committing too far forward. Whatever formation Arsenal go with, United can – if Mourinho selects the right wingers – find some joy down the flanks.

Anthony Martial has been superb so far this season, scoring six goals in 11 Premier League games, and is surely due a start after missing out at Southampton. Martial is excelling because he offers a directness from the left that requires very little support from midfielders or an overlapping full-back; his dribbling is successful even in a team severely lacking cohesion.

There will be space for him behind Bellerin, which means (should United manage to work the ball out to the left) Martial can isolate Shokdran Mustafi – arguably Arsenal’s weakest centre-back for one-on-ones.

 

Alex Keble

Arsenal Five Big Questions