Marcus Rashford fingered by the Mail as xG used to justify Ten Hag sack

The Mail have obvious reasons for their Marcus Rashford agenda but this latest bumfluff is risible. We also see the ‘data’ used for purposes of Ten Hag sack SEO.

Rash decision
There are very obvious reasons why the Daily Mail are not keen on Tory-baiting, child-feeding, rich, black footballer Marcus Rashford. Add that to his inherent click value as a Manchester United footballer having a poor and controversial season, and that is presumably how you arrive on Thursday morning at the MailOnline deciding that the actual biggest story in football is this:

Man United fans identify Marcus Rashford as one of TWO players – both still at the club – who Ole Gunnar Solskjaer suggests ‘put their hands up because they didn’t want to play’ before he got sacked

So the ‘news’ is not that Solskjaer has identified Rashford has somebody who refused to play – or actually, on closer inspection, suggested anybody at all refused to play – but that Manchester United fans have decided that Rashford was one of two (sorry, TWO) players who refused to play.

And that’s ‘news’. Largely because it’s Marcus Rashford. Oddly, the other footballer identified by those United fan detectives – Scott McTominay – is not mentioned in the headline or the URL. A curious oversight.

Let’s start with what Solksjaer actually said on the Stick to Football podcast:

“I knew the day before, absolutely 100 per cent against Watford, that was it. The team talk at half time was about whoever wants to play, can play, get your hand up if you don’t want to play.

“Made a few changes, couple of the lads actually in tears, they had a go, and after the game I knew.”

So, no indication at all that anybody ‘put their hands up because they didn’t want to play’, but rather that some players were too upset to play.

Here’s what the Mail say:

Looking back at the game, two substitutions were made at half time, which were Marcus Rashford and Scott McTominay making way for Donny van de Beek and Anthony Martial.

And Red Devils fans on social media have put two and two together, suggesting the two academy graduates didn’t want to play in the second half of the game.

Red Devils fans on social media might have put two and two together but you really should know better.

It makes far, far more sense that Rashford and McTominay – Academy graduates both – were too upset to play than that they ‘put their hands up because they didn’t want to play’.

Indeed, this is what Rashford said to Sky Sports about Solskjaer’s sacking the following week:

“Ole knows he’ll always be a legend of this club and the players here respect him 100 per cent. It’s unfortunate that it didn’t go our way as a group. The way it started, the position he brought us to, we were close a couple of times to winning big trophies and we always seemed to just fall short.

“If those moments go our way, we could end up with two or three trophies, maybe he’d have had more time. But it’s football, things happen, and you can only move on from it. Even though it’s difficult, you have to find a way to move on.”

Does that sound like a man who refused to play? Or does it sound like a man who might have been in tears at Solskjaer’s exit?

Mediawatch is not disappointed in some c*** on X with numbers in his name, but we are disgusted with the Mail for peddling this absolute shite to add to their agenda.

READ: Rashford’s Manchester United actions must speak far louder than his thousands of empty words

Data driven
A little knowledge is a dangerous thing. And Fraser Watson of the Express website has a little knowledge. But he’s using that little knowledge to create a headline with those keywords ‘Man Utd’, ‘Ratcliffe’, Ten Hag’ and crucially ‘sack’.

Man Utd chief Sir Jim Ratcliffe has clear reason to sack Erik ten Hag as data shows

‘Data’ is excellent because it suggests that we are about to be wowed by statistics, when we all know that Ratcliffe’s ‘clear reason’ to sack Ten Hag is that Manchester United are more than a bit shit.

If you must look at ‘data’, the Premier League table will do. Here it is:

As you can see, Manchester United are in sixth place, fully 19 points behind leaders Liverpool, and have scored fewer goals than every club above Bournemouth in 13th. Pretty compelling, right.

But that’s not enough for Watson, who has got hold of something special:

Erik ten Hag’s position as manager of Manchester United is under serious threat if the data is anything to go by.

It’s a ‘table’ really, but carry on…

A graph produced by Opta Analyst has outlined how United are performing below their xG – a new phenomenon in football analysis. A statistical measure of the quality of chances created and conceded, the Red Devils are below their expected amount of goals.

‘A new phenomenon’ is fantastic; it’s been used on Match of the Day since 2017.

Ten Hag’s men have scored 37 times in the Premier League this season, as opposed to their xG of 40.9. While that doesn’t represent a significant gap, what’s telling is United’s expected goal tally is less than the likes of Brentford and Chelsea.

Their literal goal tally is less than the likes of Brentford and Chelsea, fella.

And in a brutal indictment of where United are at in comparison to the top sides. Arsenal’s xG is 56.2, Liverpool’s is 60.8 while champions Manchester City have been given 56 – and all three teams have scored more than their expected number.

That really is a ‘brutal indictment’ and without this xG data we would have no idea that the teams 19, 18 and 17 points ahead of United are far superior.

The only consolation club fans may take from the analysis is that it’s Everton who are the furthest away from the xG. The Toffees have scored 29 times this season, when data suggests they should be up at around 41.6.

Yes, that will provide some real consolation to Manchester United fans. They will sleep better with the knowledge that Everton miss a shedload of chances. Phew.