Ronaldo could bring on Guardiola ‘crisis’ at Old Trafford

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s recent switch to a more solid base should give them a fighting chance against Manchester City and Pep Guardiola.

This is the most maddening and chaotic time in the Premier League season. The run-up to the gruelling winter fixture list makes fans and chairmen anxious but worse than that, the league table plays tricks on us: it has settled to an extent, but only to give the illusion of structure when in reality things remain ultra-compressed. A couple of defeats and you’re mid-table, mired in crisis. A couple of wins and you’re right back in top-four contention.

It might be a tad sensationalist to draw conclusions, then, but it’s fun. In Manchester United’s case the present state of the table doesn’t have much bearing, and in fact we are so used to the boom-bust model that critics have stopped paying attention to the results themselves.

But Manchester City are definitely caught up in the chaos, becoming the latest club to raise alarm bells. A record of 20 points from ten games is pretty poor and there is good reason for mild concern regarding their attacking numbers. There is certainly a case to be made that Manchester United will know exactly how to repeat Crystal Palace’s trick. Defeat at Old Trafford would most likely see the words ‘Guardiola’ and ‘crisis’ dominate the news cycle next week.

United’s cautious setup should work well
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer needed to show a bit of humility after the 5-0 defeat to Liverpool. He has spent the last 12 months or so arguing that it is time to play the ‘United Way’ even in big matches, deploying expressive and adventurous football – a front-foot approach that is as buzzwordy and vapid as it sounds. The way United pressed hopelessly in ones and two against Liverpool, the way they… well, you’ve heard it all before. In short, they do not receive the detailed tactical coaching required to play like that.

Credit to Solskjaer for responding by reverting to a tried-and-tested method that keeps things a lot simpler: sit back, don’t leave your base positions, shuffle across, don’t leave your base positions, keep it tight, seriously don’t move, and wait for Cristiano Ronaldo to do something. That’s a bit harsh, of course; Solskjaer is adept at organising a compact midblock that limits space in behind and squeezes the middle of the pitch. But still.

It is exactly the right way to play City, as Palace and Southampton have shown this season. Guardiola’s team don’t press as hard as they did a few years ago and play at a slower tempo, which means they find it difficult to progress the ball through the lines when faced with a sturdy shape like United’s. They will likely be forced into awkward U-shaped patterns for long periods, while their high defensive line just might be open for Edinson Cavani and Ronaldo.

But City don’t actually get caught on the break very often. They have only conceded six goals in the league. A boring 0-0 is the most likely result.

Confrontational opponents causing City’s creativity problems
Watching Man City and Liverpool this season, they look as good as they did in those peak years of 100, 98, and 97 points, yet between them they have dropped 18 points from 20 games so far. That’s because the Premier League’s middle-class has improved significantly over the last couple of seasons.

The upshot of this is more confrontational matches in which opponents press City more effectively, and that is perhaps why they need a ruthless goalscorer more than ever. No longer can they pass cleanly through the middle of the park and create chances in a variety of ways – not against mid-table clubs and most definitely not against United.

Consequently a lot of responsibility rests on Jack Grealish, whom City are relying on far too often during the construction of attacks. The former Aston Villa winger is still adapting to life at the Etihad and does appear to be playing within himself, moving and passing a little predictably despite topping the Premier League charts for chances created (11) and sitting sixth for expected assists (2.39).

De Bruyne and Grealish can attack Fernandes
One would expect Aaron Wan-Bissaka, deployed rigidly deep in a back five, to win his one-on-one with Grealish and help crowd him out, especially with Grealish unlikely to receive a lot of support. Throughout the campaign Guardiola has been deploying his full-backs almost as central midfielders, sucking things into that congested middle even more. It will be a claustrophobic game in which the Man City playmakers are often isolated.

But Kevin de Bruyne’s return from injury may help shake things a bit loose, especially if he can combine with Grealish in the left-centre area where Bruno Fernandes will sit. This threatens to be the key battleground should Solskjaer again go with a 5-3-2 that puts the Portuguese in an unusual right-centre midfield position. Grealish and De Bruyne can find gaps here if they look hard enough.

As for Man Utd’s attacking potential, an injury to Kyle Walker is cause for optimism. His speed and acceleration is vital on the cover, preventing opponents from getting behind that daring high line, and in his absence Ronaldo will undoubtedly peel off to the left. Solskjaer needs to give clear instructions to play longer passes early, setting Ronaldo off to do his thing.