Nottingham Forest are running on empty – their Champions League dream is fading fast

We’re not saying Nottingham Forest have been found out, or that any luck has run out – but we’re not surprised to see their Champions League dream fading for one simple reason.

Forest are massively outperforming their expected goals in the Premier League this season – Chris Wood had accumulated 11.1 xG but scored 19 goals going into Thursday’s match against Brentford – and that is a huge reason why they’re fighting for a top-five finish.

But another statistic indicates why they’ll miss out, which looks likely after defeat to Brentford.

Nuno has only used 23 players in the Premier League in 2024/25 – unsurprisingly the lowest across the board. They are absolutely shattered, and it shows.

Brentford were the latest team to take advantage of that on Thursday night, four days after Forest were beaten by Manchester City in the semi-final of the FA Cup.

Nuno’s side hosted the Bees in their game in hand, knowing a win would take them up to third in the Premier League. They couldn’t make that happen and stay sixth on goal difference, with only four games remaining. Four finals against Crystal Palace, Leicester City, West Ham United and top-five rivals Chelsea are around the corner. Starting with Monday’s trip to Selhurst Park, Forest have to find a second wind if the Champions League dream is to become a reality.

Brentford were the better team on a feisty evening at the City Ground, with tempers flaring and tackles flying in – particularly in the first half.

Keane Lewis-Potter, Bryan Mbeumo, Christian Nørgaard, Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliot Anderson were all shown a yellow card in the opening 45 minutes. Neco Williams, Yehor Yarmolyuk and Kristoffer Ajer joined them in the book in the second period.

We know what you’re thinking – but yes, there were indeed five first-half bookings and another three in the second half without Ryan Yates being involved. Shocking, isn’t it?

Thomas Frank’s men took the lead 90 seconds before the break. Kevin Schade was played over the top superbly by Nathan Collins, and the German managed to poke the ball past Matz Sels after some calamitous defending from Ola Aina. It was a lovely assist but a scrappy finish.

Continuing his rich vein of form, Yoane Wissa put Brentford 2-0 up in the 70th minute, with Forest players looking dead on their feet. A lump up the pitch from goalkeeper Mark Flekken was dealt with embarrassingly by the Forest defence, and Wissa dinked it over Sels.

Even qualifying for the Europa Conference League would be one hell of an achievement for Nuno and his players, but they’ve spent virtually the entire season in the top three, so it will sting badly if they do end up bottling Champions League football.

The good news for Forest is that it’s extremely tight from Newcastle United in third down to themselves in sixth, while Aston Villa remain in contention but are three points behind in seventh – and will be very encouraged by what went down at the City Ground.

The bad news for me is that it’s so tight that the narrative can very easily change, and there will probably be egg on my face when everyone around them drops points and Forest beat Palace on Monday.

As things stand, that looks unlikely – unless Nuno’s lads find that second wind they so desperately need.

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