Five England v Spain predictions based on past meetings, including Southgate’s final game and Trippier reducer

Gareth Southgate’s last game as England boss and a Kieran Trippier reducer on Lamine Yamal to set the tone against Spain will light up the Euro 2024 final.

England are preparing for their second consecutive European Championship final under Southgate, with Spain waiting in Berlin on Sunday.

The two countries have met 27 times, first in 1929 and most recently in 2018. England actually boast a winning record of 14 to 10, with three draws. And some of those previous clashes give us a clear idea of what to expect in the final.

Kieran Trippier’s hilariously unnecessary early reducer
It remains perhaps the greatest moment in English football history, if not the high point of mankind’s entire existence. After 11 minutes of a genuinely brilliant Nations League game back when that concept felt fresh and exciting and not just fancy, rebranded friendlies, Eric Dier suddenly realised that he was mortally offended by the mere notion of Sergio Ramos.

While laptop nerds may have seen a defensive midfielder embarking on a foolish, naive, thoughtless individual press high into the opposition penalty area, vacating vast swathes of space behind him and leaving his teammates thoroughly exposed if one simple pass was played through the lines, the rest of us witnessed something incredibly beautiful. One loose Ramos touch from an awkward Marcos Alonso ball was enough for Dier to rampage towards the centre-half and clatter into him, reducing him to a crumpled mess.

MORE ON ENGLAND AT EURO 2024 FROM F365
👉 Bellingham suffers sick burn in ‘brutal dig’ and England want Southgate to STAY after reaching second final
👉 Keane hits out at England ‘arrogance’ as ITV pundit claims ‘proper men’ would win Euro 2024
👉 England ‘weak link’ should be dropped for the Euro 2024 final

Had Dier taken Mo Salah’s demise in the Champions League final six months prior to heart? Was he entirely understandably pumped up after watching that England penalty shoot-out montage featuring his winning effort against Colombia at the World Cup earlier that year?

It might forever remain a mystery why Dier decided in that moment to take a booking which even in a best-case scenario would have just been a Spain goal kick, considering the ball was inevitably slammed into the advertising hoardings almost as soon as he got up and rose to his feet, forlornly appealing to referee Szymon Marciniak that he should not actually face any consequences for trying to end a man.

The Bayern Munich defender claimed at the time he wanted to “put our foot down, put a marker down, be aggressive and show that nothing is going to intimidate us”. Sam Allardyce obviously “loved it”. Mauricio Pochettino credited Tottenham for the moment and said Dier “touched the ball”, in the same way a reckless driver’s lawyer might point out one of the four wheels on their car was on the road at the time of impact.

It did set the tone for an impressive England win in Seville and the two sides have not met since, presumably having waited long enough for Dier to be firmly out of the international picture.

But it is a tactic worth exploring again, the only variable being who could play the Dier role almost six years on. Conor Gallagher feels like a perfect fit but that would require him to start and please god no not again. It would be too high up the pitch for Harry Kane, and beneath the composed brilliance of Kobbie Mainoo. Not sure Kieran Trippier brings quite the same chaotic energy but could absolutely see him nailing the pretend indignation at receiving a yellow card while Lamine Yamal’s foot hangs off in the background.

Gareth Southgate’s final game
The reports emerging on the eve of the Euro 2024 final are not particularly groundbreaking. Of course the FA would quite prefer to keep a manager who has reached two finals, a semi and a quarter in his four tournaments, thank you very much. As a results-focused organisation they are not afflicted by vague ideas like playing well for sustained periods and probably don’t even know what a clamour is. Southgate has objectively overachieved and his employers would be utterly insane for not wanting to prolong his reign for as long as he is happy to be routinely abused for a few months out of the year.

With that said, there have been various points during the last tournament cycle and certainly in this tournament itself when it has felt as though this wonderful relationship was reaching a natural conclusion. Southgate was surely 30 seconds from the end against Slovakia, the Underlying Numbers throughout this summer are not flattering and the desire for a new approach after eight years need not be perceived as an insult.

The last game of Southgate’s four-match interim reign post-Allardyce was against Spain in November 2016; he was appointed on a permanent basis two weeks later. What a way it would be to step down against the same opponent, with a European Championship winner’s medal in one hand and the middle finger of the other raised towards those critics who the manager and his players are using as fuel for this incredible charge towards history.

Jordan Pickford saves a penalty
No country has missed more penalties against England – not including shoot-outs – than Spain. Only one of their four spot kicks against the Three Lions have been converted, and Ray Clemence avenged that successful Dani effort in the 1980 European Championship group stages by saving from the same player six minutes later.

Nigel Martyn kept Spain debutant Javi Moreno out from 12 yards in Sven Goran Eriksson’s first game as England manager, a 3-0 win in February 2001. Paul Robinson saved from Raul three years later, although that was in a losing effort due to Asier del Horno’s first-half header.

Jordan Pickford, you know what to do.

Spain have a goal disallowed for offside
England coming off one of their greatest major tournament finals performances ever against the Netherlands and straight into a knockout meeting with Spain, is it? How very Euro ’96 of them.

Bukayo Saka quite selfishly circled off a perfect option here with his redemption penalty in the quarter-final shoot-out win over Switzerland, bearing the similarities it did with Stuart Pearce’s effort against Spain almost three decades prior. A real shame, that. Hope he’s happy.

Instead, let’s settle for some wonderful offside fun akin to Julio Salinas, played a good couple of yards onside by Tony Adams before finishing calmly past David Seaman at the old Wembley. VAR is the obvious sticking point here so for a modern twist we could get some of those incredibly dodgy lines erroneously suggesting Nico Williams had just strayed beyond Declan Rice.

Joey Barton enjoys 11 minutes of relevance
Without wishing to speculate quite how the edgelord might briefly return to international prominence again after his solitary England cap in February 2007 in a defeat to Spain, beyond calling someone woke, smashing his keyboard into a thousand tiny pieces because a commentator or pundit has dared to have breasts, or being successfully sued by a Vine brother, it would be good fun to roll back the years.

READ NEXT: Why Spain cannot hope to win Euro 2024 as England wisely stumble through their group