Ten Hag was half right: Man United could have won or lost 14 more games and that is the point

Erik ten Hag has a new favourite excuse – aside from injuries – to explain why Man United are not very good. But it helps sum up his reign’s main problem.

Erik ten Hag was not necessarily wrong. His assertion that Man United could have 14 more wins from his 100-game reign is backed up by them losing precisely that many matches by a single goal, or the vaguely conceivable conversion of a dozen draws into victories through, say, a Bruno Fernandes penalty.

Some crude, rudimentary hypothetical mathematics are required to justify clear backward steps after millions spent over almost two years, but the equation is there if you squint long and hard enough to ultimately see what you want to see.

The problem is that Man United could just as easily have lost as many more. More than half (33) of their 61 wins under Ten Hag have come by a single goal and many others have been delivered as utterly unconvincingly as these three points against Everton.

Ten Hag pretended that “fine margins” settled the game against Manchester City, reiterating that embarrassingly dense point in his programme notes, but it is on these occasions – at home to a side battling relegation and without a win in almost three months – when that is most accurate. Man United should dominate such matches but their ability to turn apparent superiority into parity at best and inferiority at worst is unparalleled.

They play every game in a way which relies on those “fine margins” falling in their favour to produce a positive result. No matter the opponent or venue, Man United abandon any pretence of control to focus on counter-attacking with speed and defending with stupidity. It is a perfectly legitimate tactic, albeit wholly one-dimensional, unsustainable and rather uninspiring considering the sheer levels of investment. But it is an identifiable approach all the same. And thus not really a viable excuse for Ten Hag when it backfires.

But there is an element of consistency therein: Manchester United have now conceded at least 15 shots in 10 consecutive games, a run which includes a match against Newport. They have conceded at least 20 shots in 10 Premier League games this season, more than any other club.

The only club across Europe’s top five divisions to have faced more shots in the league this season are Sheffield United. It is a grave shame that their meeting, originally scheduled to take place next week, has been postponed for a reason as nonsensical as an FA Cup quarter-final against Liverpool at Old Trafford.

There will have to be some degree of sudden improvement ahead of that game, with particular work needed on their start. Casemiro spending at least the first ten minutes experimenting just how absurdly he can surrender possession in his own half felt slightly weird; Everton’s insistence on letting Alejandro Garnacho enter the area before tripping him up was only slightly less so.

The two penalties from Fernandes and Marcus Rashford were uniquely clinical shows of finishing in a game otherwise entirely bereft of such composure, skill and basic competence.

The moves which preceded Garnacho winning both spot kicks were, to be fair, delightfully fluid and crisp, but fundamentally disconnected from everything else. Everton failing to punish that due to their own ineptitude makes it no less damning.

Ten Hag’s post-match debrief will likely contain at least some imagining of Man United being the aggressors who exhibited complete command of the game and their opponent. They were better in the second half but only because the freakish game state allowed it, and still Everton had opportunities they really ought to have taken advantage of.

The truth is those “fine margins” that have become the Dutchman’s explanatory crutch simply accommodated them this time. Man United racked up another win which could easily have been a draw or defeat on the balance of play and probability. It doesn’t exactly scream ‘brave new era’.

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