PL fairness ratings: Arsenal and Man United were lucky

Date published: Tuesday 25th September 2018 11:55

Another weekend of Premier League action came to an end with Arsenal’s win over Everton, though they were very fortunate to get the three points in what was the most unfair result of the weekend. Using expected goals (xG), Infogol’s Analyst reviews the weekend’s results, assessing the fairness of each match.

Unai Emery’s side registered their fourth straight league win at the weekend, beating Everton 2-0, though according to expected goals they were very fortunate to do so.

Alexandre Lacazette’s brilliant strike opened the scoring, a shot he had just a 4% chance of converting, before Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s goal was given, even with him in an offside position.

Marco Silva’s Everton side were deserving of more in this game, having created the better of the chances (xG: ARS 0.81 – 1.04 EVE), in what was a good display from the Toffees.

Chelsea lost their 100% record against West Ham, as they were held to a goalless draw at the London Stadium.

The Blues did create the better of the chances (xG: WHU 1.01 – 2.27 CHE), with Alvaro Morata having the best chance of the match (65% chance of scoring), which was saved by Łukasz Fabiański’s head.

Burnley got their first win of the season against Bournemouth, and rightly so, having created the better chances (xG: BUR 2.27 – 1.03 BOU), mainly thanks to some kind ricochets off low-probability chances resulting in high-probability chances.

Interestingly, both games have similar xG totals, with one finishing 0-0 and the other 4-0.

Liverpool won again, beating Southampton 3-0 to maintain their 100% start to the season in what was another good performance (xG: LIV 2.17 – 0.70 SOU).

In contrast, Manchester United were held at home by Wolves, and based on expected goals, José Mourinho’s side were fortunate to get a point.

It was the newly-promoted side who created the better of the chances in front of the Old Trafford crowd (xG: MUN 0.67 – 1.38 WOL), as United once again struggled to generate good scoring opportunities.

“We are at home and we should play much better against Wolves. When we are at home we should attack, attack, attack. That’s Old Trafford. We are here to attack.” Paul Pogba’s latest comments should be taken on board by his manager after another poor home performance.

Leicester were deserved winners against a struggling Huddersfield side, coming from 1-0 down to win 3-1 and deservedly register their third win of the season.

Tottenham ended a three-match losing streak with a well-deserved win away at Brighton, as they created the better of the chances according to expected goals (xG: BHA 0.85 – 2.05 TOT).

Manchester City just keep on hammering teams, and Cardiff were on the end of a thumping at the weekend, as Pep Guardiola’s side won 5-0, racking up the xG again while conceding just two shots (xG: CAR 0.12 – 3.19 MCI).

Crystal Palace were held to a goalless draw by Newcastle, though they edged proceedings according to expected goals (xG: CRY 1.14 – 0.32 NEW).

Mamadou Sakho came in for some criticism for what many people were calling ‘miss of the season’, but the Frenchman only had a 27% chance of scoring his header.

Fulham and Watford rightly shared the spoils at Craven Cottage in what was the fairest result of the weekend according to expected goals.


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