Champions League qualification: What each team needs for top five and how eighth place can still qualify for Europe
The season is nearly done. The title has been decided. Relegation has been decided. But the European places? Very much not decided, with everyone from third to seven still yet to discover which European competition they’ll be in next season as we head into the final day.
And it’s still possible that half the teams in the Premier League will be in Europe next season.
But how and what does each team involved need to do to achieve their dreams? That’s right, strap in everybody: it’s permutations time.
Let’s start with what we know for sure, and then get into the long grass of the club-by-club requirements.
The certainties are these:
* Liverpool and Arsenal will be in the Champions League.
* The current top seven will all finish in the top seven and will all be in European competition of some kind, but at this point any of them below the top two could wind up in the Champions League, Europa League or Conference.
* The final top five will all be in the Champions League.
* Crystal Palace will be in the Europa League for winning the FA Cup; they cannot impact anything further via their league position.
* Tottenham will be in the Champions League as Europa League holders; they most definitely cannot impact anything further via their league position.
This means the Premier League is guaranteed at least nine teams in Europe next season, six of them in the Champions League. It’s still possible for that total number to balloon to 10…we’ll get to that later. For now, the team-by-team final-day permutations for the all-important top-five finish…
Arsenal
Nice and easy. They are guaranteed Champions League football and are almost certain to finish second for the third season in a row.
Arsenal will finish second in the Premier League if:
They avoid defeat at Southampton.
OR
Manchester City fail to beat Fulham. And even if Arsenal lose and City win, it still also requires an eight-goal swing on goal difference. File this one under ‘unlikely’.
Manchester City
Victory over Bournemouth on Tuesday night has made City’s top-five task significantly easier, even if not really their top-two chances.
Man City will finish in the top five and secure Champions League football if:
They beat Fulham. And realistically, a draw will be enough given Aston Villa’s significantly inferior goal difference.
OR
They lose to Fulham and at least two of the following things happen
* Newcastle fail to beat Everton
* Aston Villa fail to beat Manchester United
* Chelsea fail to beat Nottingham Forest Forest can theoretically also catch City in this scenario by beating Chelsea but require an outlandish 14-goal swing to do so.
Newcastle United
It’s got slightly dicey for Newcastle after defeat at Arsenal on Sunday, but Champions League football remains effectively in their own hands.
Newcastle will finish in the top five and secure Champions League football if:
They beat Everton. It’s not mathematically quite that simple, but in reality it is entirely that simple. If Chelsea, Man City and Aston Villa also all win on the final day, Villa would need to beat Man United by 13 goals more than Newcastle beat Everton to knock them out of the top five. Even allowing for Man United being very silly indeed, this is not going to happen.
OR
They draw with Everton and one of the following things happen:
* Chelsea and Nottingham Forest draw
* Aston Villa fail to beat Manchester United
OR
They lose by three goals or less to Everton and Aston Villa lose to Manchester United. We’re again assuming no wildly unlikely goal-difference swings, but there is one caveat here that is unlikely but just about drifts into the realm of the feasible. If Newcastle lose by four goals to Everton and Chelsea lose by one goal to Nottingham Forest, both Chelsea and Forest would finish above Newcastle.
Chelsea
Chelsea are in a similar position to Newcastle, with the same number of points and a goal-difference deficit of just two, meaning that they can plausibly overhaul Newcastle even if both win (or even both lose, as outlined above) but more importantly means that they, like Newcastle, have what amounts in reality to an extra point compared to Aston Villa.
Chelsea will finish in the top five and secure Champions League football if:
They beat Nottingham Forest. It’s not mathematically quite that simple, but in reality it is entirely that simple. If Newcastle, Man City and Aston Villa also take maximum points from their remaining games, Villa would need to beat Man United by 11 goals more than Chelsea beat Forest to knock them out of the top five. Even allowing for Man United being very silly indeed, this is not going to happen.
OR
They draw with Nottingham Forest and at least one of the following things happens:
* Aston Villa fail to beat Manchester United
* Newcastle lose to Everton
OR
They lose to Nottingham Forest and both the following things happen
* Aston Villa lose to Manchester United
* Newcastle lose to Everton by three goals more than Chelsea lose to Forest
Aston Villa
Goal difference could prove Aston Villa’s undoing in such a tight battle here, because theirs is conspicuously worse than the teams around them. They need 11-goal and 13-goal swings to overhaul Chelsea and Newcastle respectively on goal difference and we have taken the decision to consider that impossible and thus ignore scenarios that require it. Which all means the Premier League’s first ever 14-0 win is now surely on the cards.
Aston Villa will finish in the top five and secure Champions League football if:
They beat Manchester United and at least one of the following happens:
* Man City lose to Fulham
* Newcastle fail to beat Everton
OR
They draw with Manchester United and Newcastle lose to Everton
Nottingham Forest
The outsiders of the bunch despite Sunday’s win at West Ham keeping them in the hunt. It is still so tight that anything can happen, and the fact Forest face a direct rival in Chelsea does at least leave them relying on less assistance from elsewhere to make the leap from seventh to fifth on the final day.
Nottingham Forest will finish in the top five and secure Champions League football if:
They beat Chelsea and at least one of the following happens
* Newcastle fail to beat Everton
* Aston Villa fail to beat Manchester United
Forest can mathematically finish in the top five with a draw, but only if Newcastle and Chelsea lose by 10 and eight goals respectively.
How eighth place could still deliver European football for Brighton or Brentford
Chelsea are the key to this. We won’t get too bogged down in the specifics of why (SPOILER ALERT: we will), but it all comes down to the fact that the extra Champions League place awarded for topping the coefficient charts this year is the last thing that will be factored in by UEFA after they’ve sorted out all the spots for assorted competition winners and the like, and that this bonus spot is always a +1 to a country’s total number of qualifiers.
You don’t need to understand this, we’re not really sure we do, what you need to know is that this means a tenth European spot opens up for English clubs if a couple of specific conditions are met.
First and crucially, Chelsea have to win the Europa Conference League and thus the Europa League spot that goes with it. And they need to finish outside the Premier League’s European spots before the fifth Champions League place has been added. Keeping up? Good.
There are two ways this can happen. If Chelsea finish seventh, they are immediately outside the European places before the coefficient place is factored in.
This is easy enough. Top four are Champions League, fifth is Europa League, and sixth is either someone taking a top-five Newcastle’s Conference League spot from the Carabao, or Newcastle themselves and thus materially irrelevant to where everyone ends up. Okay?
The other way is for Chelsea to finish sixth and Newcastle seventh. This is less likely because it requires goal-difference swings as well as results to fall into place. Again, though, it would place Chelsea outside the original European qualifying places before the bonus place gets involved: top four Champions League, fifth place Europa League, Newcastle in Conference League as Carabao winners, Palace in Europa League as FA Cup winners.
That would mean that when all the machinations have concluded, that seventh-placed Newcastle would be promoted to the Europa League and the Conference League spot moves to eighth.
If Chelsea finish in the top five, there will be no further change to England’s allocation.
If Chelsea finish sixth with anyone other than Newcastle seventh, England will end up with six teams in the Champions League, three in the Europa League and none in the Conference.
Again, there is no great need to understand this, just to accept it. So in a nutshell:
Eighth place in the Premier League will qualify for the Conference League if:
Chelsea win the Conference League AND Chelsea finish seventh or Chelsea finish sixth and Newcastle finish seventh.
And that would mean the top eight in the Premier League as well as FA Cup winners Crystal Palace and either Spurs or Man United as Europa League winners would all be in Europe next season, giving England 10 competitors in total.
As to who will finish eighth, that is at least now mercifully simple.
* Brighton will finish eighth if they avoid defeat at Tottenham or Brentford fail to beat Wolves.
* Brentford will finish eighth if they beat Wolves and Brighton lose to Tottenham.