Premier League winners and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer…
Winners
Arsenal and the end of the hoodoo
One of the longest and most debilitating streaks in Premier League history is over at last. After 29 matches away at Big Six opposition, Arsenal finally have their victory. It is too much to say that this is the break-out result of Mikel Arteta’s time in charge, because he produced excellent victories against better opposition in the Premier League and FA Cup last season. But in terms of laying statistical ghosts to rest, victory at Old Trafford is clearly hugely significant.
During that dismal run, Arsenal were repeatedly undone by defensive calamity. They kept only one clean sheet during those 29 matches, a 0 0 draw at Stamford Bridge in 2017. The key to improvement under Arteta is a switch to possession football at the back that quickly flicks into attacking speed, but it is founded upon defensive resilience. Arsenal now have the meanest defence in the Premier League this season.
Rob Holding and Gabriel, an unlikely central defensive combination in August, were superb even if Gabriel was probably fortunate not to receive a second yellow card. Ahead of them, Mohamed Elneny was arguably the game’s best player, vindicating the surprise selection that had plenty of Arsenal supporters scratching their heads.
More on this later from a Manchester United perspective, but one team at Old Trafford arrived with a logical tactical plan while the other just turned up and hoped to play well. Arsenal took advantage of United’s diamond by hounding the midfielder in possession who was left isolated by the team’s shape. While Elneny did the dirty work, Thomas Partey played the penetrative forward passes that linked midfield to attack in the absence of a pure chance creator.
But more important than having a plan is having a manager who is able to communicate it and inspire the players of the process. Like his mentor Pep Guardiola, Arteta is a process manager. That is always king. Listen to me, do what I say, trust in me, and this will work. Those managers need milestones along the road, pointers to the players that this all makes sense.
On Sunday, Arteta earned one of those pointers. This squad is not deep enough to avoid missteps and stumbles, but they are now capable of matching Big Six opponents and have a manager who will study tirelessly to create a sensible strategy to do so.
Now go and read 16 Conclusions.
Chelsea’s defending
Edouard Mendy has five successive clean sheets. He is the first Chelsea goalkeeper since Petr Cech during Jose Mourinho’s first season to start his Premier League career with three on the spin. Mendy does bestow confidence on his defence in the same way Kepa Arrizabalage removed it, even if he could have conceded a penalty for a rash challenge on Ashley Barnes at 0-0.
But this is not all on Mendy; he isn’t even the predominant reason for Chelsea’s upturn in defensive solidity. For all the compliments Chelsea’s new goalkeeper has received, and as handy as that first statistic is, Mendy didn’t even face a shot on target against Crystal Palace or Burnley, having done so twice in the Premier League in the 20 months previously.
That frames this improvement as down to Thiago Silva, not Mendy. In his last four starts, Chelsea have conceded no goals and allowed shots on target at a rate of only two per game. It is Silva’s leadership of Chelsea’s defence and his relationship with the excellent N’Golo Kante in front of him that offers evidence that Chelsea can iron out their sloppiness against non-elite opposition.
Diogo Jota vs Roberto Firmino
Firmino has three goals in his last 23 league games; Jota has three in five. Jota has been able to get far more involved around the penalty area, albeit often against tiring defences. He has had ten shots in 215 league minutes this season, Firmino one more in 353 extra minutes. We know that Firmino will only score goals regularly if he is given ample opportunity to take shots, but Jota has scored his three league goals from just 10 shots.
That is the caveat to the assumption that Firmino’s place is sacrosanct in Jurgen Klopp’s starting XI. We know that Klopp adores the hard work Firmino puts in, and it’s certainly true that he has created chances at a faster rate than Jota this season. But it is worth wondering whether Firmino’s profligacy (10 goals from his last 120 shots in the league) makes a case for Liverpool to tweak their front three to play Mohamed Salah or Sadio Mane centrally and Jota wide left.
Wolves’ supporting cast
Change is afoot at Molineux, albeit happening slightly under the radar. The starting XI against Crystal Palace on Friday evening included two new signings (Rayan Ait-Nouri and Nelson Semedo) and three players who started a combined 14 league games last season (Max Kilman, Daniel Podence and Pedro Neto). Diogo Jota and Matt Doherty have been sold, while Joao Moutinho finds himself on the bench.
If Nuno reasoned that Wolves’ team needed freshness after two seasons with roughly the same cast, it has worked. Following the shambolic 4-0 defeat at West Ham, Wolves have won three league games and should have won the other (1-1 vs Newcastle). If goalscoring remains a slight concern (Wolves have only scored eight times in seven league games), they are again suggesting that they have a chance to challenge the established Big Six. The lack of European football will surely be a blessing.
Southampton, sharing out the goals
It’s not that Danny Ings is out of form – he has five goals in seven games and only five players in the division can beat that. But last season Southampton were overly dependent on Ings’ goals. He scored 43% of their 51 league goals, a higher percentage than any other player in the division.
Now suddenly Southampton are easing the burden on Ings to score, potentially helpful pending news of his latest injury. Four Saints have already managed two league goals (Ings, Che Adams, Jannik Vestergaard and James Ward-Prowse) in seven league matches, whereas last season Ings was the only one to manage more than five. Between Ings’ winner against Burnley and the fourth goal against Aston Villa on Sunday, he only scored one of Southampton’s nine.
That matters, because it persuades that Southampton are a highly-functioning team under Ralph Hasenhuttl rather than the semi-successful result of a striker enjoying a period of extreme production.
Since their 2-1 home defeat to Everton in November 2019, only Liverpool and Manchester City have won more Premier League games than Southampton. No non-Big Six team have scored more goals or had more shots on target and only four ever-present teams have faced fewer shots.
With fewer resources than other clubs around them, Hasenhuttl has made Southampton the real deal – we’ll put the late collapse at Villa Park down to coasting and complacency. It’s astonishing that bigger, richer clubs across Europe aren’t falling over themselves to poach him.
James Ward-Prowse
He’s scored 13% of all direct free-kick goals in the Premier League since the start of last season. And he should start for England in place of Harry Winks next month.
Callum Wilson
Newcastle United’s joint-highest goalscorer since the start of last season. He’s played 622 minutes in the black and white.
Gareth Bale
A first Tottenham goal since the 1-0 win over Sunderland in May 2013 and an important one too. If there are reasonable doubts about Bale’s ability to start two matches in a week after going so long without regular football and given that he possesses those pesky hamstrings, the most use he can be to Jose Mourinho during his early weeks is as a super-sub to change games that are drifting out of reach. Like that.
Losers
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and ‘roll the dice’ Manchester United
Manchester United do not always play badly. To suggest as much misses the open goal of criticism. Solskjaer has a collection of excellent and expensive players. The starting XI against Arsenal cost £410m to sign and three of those were academy graduates who didn’t cost a penny. With those resources, there is a natural floor to Manchester United’s level. Pick those players enough times, face the right opponents, and occasionally they will click and produce something brilliant. Wednesday evening was evidence of that.
But that’s exactly the point: The quality of Manchester United’s players guarantees a natural floor and their manager guarantees a natural ceiling. Solskjaer has proven his ability to switch formations and personnel and surprise an opposition manager, particularly in big games. But for the most part United are a ‘roll the dice’ football team. Pick the players, tell them to go out and play, hope the individuals click often enough with each other that it results in brilliance – roll the dice. When it works, fine. When it doesn’t, we can ask questions of the manager. After six matches of their league season, it has worked for 10 minutes against Newcastle United and that’s it.
One team on Sunday looked to have a philosophy, a singular goal (that led to the single goal), an evident structure in which everyone knew their role and had been given specific instructions on how to carry it out. The other looked as if it had been told to ‘do what you did last game’. If that’s not true, and Manchester United’s players were given exacting advice on how to career out their role within the team and what they should expect from every opposition player, that’s equally damning because they clearly weren’t listening.
And this is the problem. For all the ‘I wonder what the Solskjaer critics think about this’ tweets of Wednesday night, we are allowed to expect better. Dominant home performances shouldn’t be the clanging exception that his defenders cling to. This is Manchester bloody United and they have seven points from six matches and are suffering their worst home run since 1972.
Solskjaer’s supporters must also beware revisionism here. He was appointed as interim manager because Mourinho was sacked for failing to produce a title challenge. His United team were sixth at the time of his departure, albeit 11 points off the top four after 17 matches. If expectations have been reduced since then, that is down to Solskjaer as well as the club.
Over the period of Solskajer’s permanent tenure, Manchester United sit seventh in the Premier League. Over that period they have taken two more points than Arsenal (who sacked a manager) and behind Chelsea (who sacked a manager) and Tottenham (who sacked a manager). They are two points closer to Liverpool than they are Norwich, but Norwich have played 12 fewer Premier League matches. At what point, two years after Solskjaer joined as the interim option, can we conclude that we’re just not that into him?
One typical reaction to defeats such as these is to blame the club’s hierarchy, and not without reason. Ed Woodward is unfit for purpose in a football specialist role. The Glazer family have turned a great club into a shell of its former magnitude, bleeding it dry and thus imposing unhelpful limitations on its on-field performance. But we are still allowed to expect better than this.
And Solskjaer is hardly fighting the good fight against the decay. “I noticed [the anti-Glazer chants],” as he said in January. “As a club we’ve got to stick together, we’ve got to be united, we are a family. I can only say from when I’ve been here I’ve been backed by the owners, I’ve been backed by Ed and they’re supporting me.”
It’s been said here before, but Solskjaer will never rail against United’s off-field mess because he is lucky to be here at all. If United were a smooth, purring machine he would not be the manager. He is at the best club for him, and his history does count for something. But he is emphatically not the best manager for his position. If the criticism sometimes feels a bit harsh, see back to a previous point: This is Manchester bloody United. You don’t get to win one game handsomely and then lose the next and cry foul because the focus is on the defeat – not here.
This is not a poor squad. It is not a starting XI with huge holes. It is imperfect, but then so is Wolves’ squad and Southampton’s squad and their managers have proven themselves capable of creating something greater and longer-lasting than the sum of those parts. Instead it is a team that looks undermanaged and is too easily undone by opponents who have a tactical plan to dismantle United’s laissez-faire approach to being successful. Another manager could do better than this. After two years in charge, another manager should be given the chance.
Burnley, slipping away
This was not a good summer for Burnley. Sean Dyche understood that funds were tight with the club potentially up for sale and Covid-19 persuading the boardroom to be risk-averse, but there comes a point when it’s less safe to not spend money. If Burnley get relegated in this season of all seasons, it will badly damage their long-term plan.
The club’s only summer business was to sign a replacement third-choice goalkeeper and Dale Stephens to replace Jeff Hendrick. The domestic window remaining open created the possibility of recruiting from the EFL, but nothing came. This squad is weaker than a year ago and looks far easier to dismantle.
Burnley used to have a knack of bruising the noses of the Premier League’s elite. In 2017/18, when they finished seventh, Burnley won at Stamford Bridge and took points off Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham. That has evaporated. They have now taken two points from their last 30 available against the Big Six since a 2-1 home win over Tottenham in February 2019. Chelsea swatted them aside on Saturday without Burnley mustering a shot on target.
There’s no great shame in Burnley being beaten by teams with far higher budgets, but they are also struggling against the rest. In four games against Leicester, Newcastle, Southampton and West Brom this season, Burnley have taken a single point, scored three goals and conceded eight. They have never been expansive in the final third, but Dyche now seems incapable of making his defence miserly.
This week brought rumours of a takeover that may well be completed soon. But even that comes with caveats. Dyche has regularly spoken about the benefits of having a little more money to spend, but Burnley will be a hard sell to potential signings in January if they remain haunted by relegation. One of the two bids is fronted by sports lawyer Chris Farnell. Mention his name to Bury, Bolton and Charlton supporters and then sit back as they rant.
It’s all a bit grim. Upcoming fixtures against Brighton and Crystal Palace do provide opportunity for part-salvation, but after that Burnley face Manchester City, Everton, Arsenal, Wolves and Leeds in the space of four weeks. More importantly, would Dyche not be foolish to work out an escape plan in case his reputation becomes tarnished by a troubling season?
Manchester City’s cutting edge
A win’s a win, and it came with some reason for Pep Guardiola cheer. In the three games that Ruben Dias and Aymeric Laporte have started together, Manchester City have conceded a single goal. Against Marseille in midweek, City allowed their joint-fewest shots in any Champions League game. Against Sheffield United, they allowed half the number of shots as they have in any other league game this season.
But if the defence looks much better, there are still obvious problems in the final third. That’s probably to be expected without Sergio Aguero or Gabriel Jesus (although Jesus has been unreliable of late). But City’s inability to turn dominance of possession and territory into goals is a significant frustration.
City have scored four goals from 66 shots over their last four league games. On Saturday, their failure was in the final ball that wasted a succession of counter-attacks and overlaps. Unusually. Kevin de Bruyne was probably most to blame although Bernardo Silva and Riyad Mahrez share that guilt.
Both must improve ahead of a massive league fixture at home to Liverpool next week. Win that and suddenly life looks a lot rosier as we head into the second international break of the season.
Sebastien Haller
The injury to Michail Antonio afforded a chance to Haller to re-establish himself as a go-to option for David Moyes, but early signs are not good. Haller might as well not have played at all against Liverpool. He had no shots, created no chances, completed only five passes and had 17 touches of the ball before being substituted.
Haller can make the case that he relies upon service, but then that only reflects badly on him. Antonio’s greatest asset is not his finishing but his intent. He harries opponents and repeatedly drops deep to provide an option for midfielders. He chases down lost causes to create moments of danger where none should exist.
The reality for West Ham is that Haller offers precious little if he isn’t scoring. He has 12 shots in his last 18 league appearances and has created one chance in his last 10. If those behind him are indeed partly responsible for failing to provide adequate service, Moyes will be desperate for Antonio to return to address the problem.
Everton’s creativity
An issue that was painfully obvious from minute one to 91, when Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored a consolation goal. Everton have created 68 chances in the Premier League this season. Forty-two of those 68 chances were created by players who weren’t in the starting XI this weekend.
Liverpool’s slow starts
Of course it doesn’t matter much if you keep coming back to win matches – few teams in Europe are better at responding to adversity than Liverpool. But Klopp will be irked by Liverpool’s new habit: They have conceded first in four of their last five league games, three of which came in the game’s first 15 minutes. Before that, they had conceded first in four of their 29 in the league.
England’s goalkeepers
Jordan Pickford was dropped for the excellent – and non-calamitous – Robin Olsen. Nick Pope’s save percentage has dropped to 61.3% this season and Burnley are bottom of the league. Dean Henderson is now emphatically Manchester United’s No. 2 goalkeeper. Good luck, Gareth.
Daniel Storey
