Ronaldo leads worst 10 PL finishers owned by their xG

Oh Ronaldo…

We’re talking non-penalty G-xG, which is basically how many more or less (non-penalty) Premier League goals a player has scored above or below the xG of his chances. So in short, who is scoring more goals than he should and who is scoring less? 

We have the over-achievers here so it’s time to look at those who are not hitting the heights they should. We start with the best of the worst and end with the real wasters.

Statistics are taken from the brilliant FB.Ref.

10) Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton)
Non-penalty goals: 1
Non-penalty xG: 3.3
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.3

Not a great deal has gone right for Calvert-Lewin since he started this season with three goals in three games under Rafa Benitez. Then came the toe injury and the muted return under new boss Frank Lampard that has so far reaped exactly zero goals. Arsenal might not be quite so keen this summer unless he successfully locates the net again.

9) Timo Werner (Chelsea)
Non-penalty goals: 1
Non-penalty xG: 3.3
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.3

Just Chelsea’s Timo Werner there doing his usual Chelsea’s Timo Werner things. He has only played 575 minutes of Premier League football this season so he really has wasted some gilt-edged chances.

8) Jakub M0der (Brighton)
Non-penalty goals: 0
Non-penalty xG: 2.5
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.5

“You can see that in terms of hitting the box, he can affect the goal, the next thing is to finish things off,” said Graham Potter. That is quite some understatement; the Polish midfielder is yet to score in the Premier League and he joined in October 2020.

7) Joshua King (Watford)
Non-penalty goals: 4
Non-penalty xG: 6.7
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.7

He should have scored more goals than Emmanuel Dennis. He hasn’t.

6) Alexandre Lacazette (Arsenal)
Non-penalty goals: 2
Non-penalty xG: 4.7
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.7

While Emile Smith Rowe is the king of the chance-takers, Lacazette is the pauper. He works hard, drops deep, leads from the front, but misses chance after chance. Will it prove costly in the final reckoning?

5) Trincao (Wolves)
Non-penalty goals: 0
Non-penalty xG: 2.7
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.7

The good news is that he is hitting the target with 38% of his shots; the bad news is that they’re largely all straight at the keeper. He was particularly poor against West Ham last week.

4) Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
Non-penalty goals: 2
Non-penalty xG: 5.3
Non-penalty G-xG: -3.3

No Premier League goals since September for the perennially wasteful Jesus.

3) Harry Kane (Tottenham)
Non-penalty goals: 7
Non-penalty xG: 10.5
Non-penalty G-xG: -3.5

Seven goals in his last 11 games have made the numbers look a little less alarming for Kane, but this is still a level of underperformance nobody would have ever predicted from the England striker. Can he shift himself from this list by the end of the season?

2) Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford)
Non-penalty goals: 2
Non-penalty xG: 5.6
Non-penalty G-xG: -3.6

He has hit the woodwork seven times this season. SEVEN times.

1) Cristiano Ronaldo (Manchester United)
Non-penalty goals: 7
Non-penalty xG: 10.8
Non-penalty G-xG: -3.8

Only Liverpool players should be scoring more non-penalty goals than Ronaldo, but the truth is that he is scoring with only 16% of his shots. Frankly, he is having a ‘mare.