Scotland vs Greece prediction, expected line-ups, how to watch and stats
There’s a place in Nations League A up for grabs as Scotland and Greece battle for the second time in four days on Sunday.
Steve Clarke’s men well and truly sh*t in the Baklava on Thursday night, marching into the home of Greece’s premier club side and snatching a 1-0 victory to take back to Hampden Park.
Scott McTominay’s first-half penalty settled matters after a near career-ending tackle from Lazaros Rota viciously assaulted the former Man United midfielder.
Having avoided a red card and possible jail time for having his foot stamped on, Rota was one of the main driving forces behind the Greeks piling the pressure on in search of an equaliser.
It never came despite producing 2.74xG on the night and fashioning three big chances inside the Scots’ six-yard box alone.
Credit where it’s due for Clarke’s side finding a way, and we’re thrilled they did, but there was enough evidence on the night to suggest the game at Hampden may follow a similar pattern.
There’s no need to venture needlessly outside of their defensive third with a 1-0 lead to protect, but we suspect there will be chances to strike on the break.
The hosts have been priced up as 6/4 favourites but it’s quite easy to poke holes in that price given the state of the tie, so there may be some value in finding a way to back the visitors.
Scotland team news
Clarke spoke about formation and team selection in a post-match interview, revealing he decided early in the week to leave Tierney out and play with four at the back.
Andy Robertson being one yellow card away from suspension convinced him to keep the Arsenal full-back fresh, which also suggests he’s open to five at the back on Sunday.
Craig Gordon will keep his place in goal while Grant Hanley and John Souttar did enough to retain their places in front of him.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it springs to mind when trying to guess Clarke’s formation for the second leg, so Billy Gilmour, John McGinn, Kenny McLean, Lewis Ferguson and McTominay may start again.
Che Adams was often isolated but put in hard work on both sides of the ball and did everything but score in Piraeus.
Scotland expected line-up
Gordon – Ralston, Souttar, Hanley, Robertson – Gilmour, McLean – McGinn, McTominay, Ferguson – Adams
Greece team news
Greece threw us some curveballs as Odysseas Vlachodimos was replaced by Konstantinos Tzolakis in goal on Thursday, so unless the plan is to rotate between the two, we assume the latter will retain his place.
The defence and midfield should also have a familiar look to it but we’re anticipating changes in forward areas.
Giorgos Masouras failed to make an impact from the right and was replaced by Konstantinos Karetsas at half-time.
Dimitris Pelkas, who was expected to start the first leg, made an appearance as a second-half substitute but offered very little.
The big surprise was the omission of Benfica’s top goalscorer, Vangelis Pavilidis. Greece need a goal at Hampden so he surely has to start on Sunday.
Greece expected line-up
Vlachodimos – Rota, Mavropanos, Koulierakis, Tsimikas – Mantalos, Siopis – Masouras, Pelkas, Tzolis – Pavlidis
Scotland vs Greece: How to watch and listen
Scotland vs Greece will be live on BBC Scotland and the iPlayer, with full match commentary on BBC Radio Scotland.+
Scotland vs Greece stats:
All three competitive meetings between these sides have finished 1-0.
Scotland have won their last three matches and are unbeaten in 10 of 11 Nations League fixtures.
Greece have lost just one of their previous seven away matches, winning each of the last four.
Greece have won seven of their previous eight Nations League fixtures.
Steve Clarke & Lewis Ferguson (Scotland) quotes
On Scotland’s defensive efforts:
“We knew they would come at us second half,” Clarke said.
“We didn’t quite manage to regain our rhythm so we had to show a different side to our game.
“Two of the defenders don’t play regularly at their clubs – Anthony Ralston and Grant Hanley. They go in there and do a great job.
“You defend as a team. We were under a lot of pressure. But it wasn’t like Craig was making save after save after save.”
“We knew we were going to have to weather the storm,” Ferguson added.
“We could have been calmer on the ball, but you need to show that side of the game if you’re going to get results away from home – the dirty side, the running, tackling, blocking, heading.”
Clarke on missed opportunities:
“First half we were really good, we could’ve been two in front.
“If I’m being greedy I could say three. This game is not dead yet. No way.”
On why Kieran Tierney didn’t start:
“I knew early in the week.
“I am quite good at setting my mind to something. Obviously, you wait to see how it would go in training but I was pretty clear in my mind how we would do it. I was conscious of the fact Andy Robertson was on a yellow card and if he got a yellow tonight he could not play Sunday.
“So if I started Kieran then suddenly back-to-back games for Kieran, who has not played very often for his club either, it could have been an issue for us. That was also in my mind.”
On the tie still being open:
“I was impressed by the Greeks and their away record is good. They went to Ireland and won comfortably. They went to Finland and won comfortably. They went to Wembley and won. So the game is still wide open.”
Scotland vs Greece referee stats:
Italian Davide Massa will have the whistle for Scotland’s second-leg clash with Greece on Sunday.
Primarily officiating in Italy’s Serie A, Massa has enjoyed eight runouts in this year’s Champions League, showing an average of just 2.38 cards and awarding one penalty.
He’s as conservative as referees come in an era when five cards per match is the new normal, though he did produce two reds when Inter faced Atalanta last weekend.
Massa has refereed Rangers three times in the past, but never Celtic, and took charge of Scotland’s Hampden meeting with England in September 2023.
Scotland vs Greece prediction:
Backing Scotland to score in the first half at 17/10 produced a tidy profit on Thursday, even if Greece did let us down by failing to win the second half.
We felt the Greeks stood a better chance of progressing before the tie and the result of the first leg has done little to change our minds, so we’ll look for a way to back the visitors.
It was backs to the wall for 45 minutes for Scotland and it was more by luck than judgement that they preserved their clean sheet.
It seems unlikely that a team as good as Greece won’t find a way through them in 180 minutes, particularly as their away record is extremely good.
