The home stretch: How ten of Europe’s top leagues look

Spanish La Liga

How many games are left?
One.

Who’s winning the title?
It’s a p*ssed off Barcelona’s.

Are the European spots sorted?
Almost. Barca will be joined in the Champions League group stages by Atletico Madrid (2nd) and Real Madrid (3rd), neither of whom can move up or down in their final games.

The last spot is between three teams. Valencia (4th) can guarantee it as theirs if they beat Real Valladolid (16th) on Saturday afternoon. Getafe (5th) are level on points with Valencia but must better their result when they face Villarreal (14th) due to an inferior head-to-head record.

In the unlikely event that both teams lose, the door will be opened for Sevilla (6th) to close the two-point gap to 4th. With that said, they host Athletic Bilbao (7th), who are three points behind them with a superior head-to-head record. As 6th qualifies for the Europa League group stage and 7th starts next season in July’s second qualifying round, that seems a more pressing matter.

And relegation?
Rayo Vallecano (19th) and Huesca (20th) have both folded like cheap [REDACTED. THIS IS 2019]. Girona (18th) will almost certainly join them in the Segunda División unless they can do the unthinkable. They are three points behind Celta Vigo (17th) with a matching head-to-head record, meaning they must beat Alavés (11th) without top scorer Cristhian Stuani, hope that Iago Aspas’s Celta lose at home to relegated Rayo, and then pray for a seven-goal swing to overturn the goal difference gap.

Don’t put your money on it.

Italian Serie A

How many games are left?
Two.

Who’s winning the title?
Juventus, as ever.

Are the European spots sorted?
Napoli (2nd) will definitely escort The Old Lady into next season’s Champions League group stage. Inter Milan (3rd) and Atalanta (4th) have a four and three-point lead over both Milan (5th) and Roma (6th) respectively. Torino (7th) can dream, but need a miracle to reach anything other than the Europa League spots.

Inter need a maximum of three points against Napoli and Empoli (18th) in their final two games to secure a Champions League place. Atalanta require four points against Juventus and Sassuolo (10th) to guarantee theirs. Milan take on Frosinone (19th) and SPAL (11th), while Roma face Sassuolo and Parma (15th). If Milan can close the three-point gap to Atalanta, their superior head-to-head record would come into play.

Coppa Italia winners Lazio are in the Europa League group stage along with 5th, while 6th will start in the second qualifying round.

And relegation?
Frosinone and Chievo (20th) will be in Serie B next season. Empoli could still theoretically catch any team up to Cagliari in 12th, but Parma, Udinese (16th) and Genoa (17th) are in the most imminent danger. That trio is within three points of Empoli, who face Torino and Inter in their final two games.

Genoa are one point clear of the dropzone and have Cagliari and Fiorentina (14th) to come. Udinese are a further point ahead and take on SPAL and Cagliari. Parma, another point better off, play Fiorentina and Roma.

To conclude: Empoli are doomed.

German Bundesliga

How many games are left?
One.

Who’s winning the title?
Bayern Munich or Borussia Dortmund.

What’s the state of play?
Bayern (1st) will win a seventh straight Bundesliga title if they beat Eintracht Frankfurt (6th) at home on Saturday afternoon. Even a draw would likely be enough as they have a two-point, +17 goal difference advantage over Dortmund (2nd), who travel to Monchengladbach (4th) for the famous Borussia derby.

Are the European spots sorted?
Bayern, Dortmund and RB Leipzig are certain of a Champions League group stage place. Gladbach are primed for the final spot, but are level on points with Leverkusen (5th), who have the easier game against Hertha (10th).

Eintracht are one point behind both but might be more interested in sealing the one point that secures Europa League group stage qualification. Hoffenheim (8th) are three points behind but have a much better goal difference, and face Mainz (12th) instead of the current league leaders.

Wolfsburg (7th) are currently in the final Europa League qualification spot. They can secure it by beating Augsburg (14th). Werder Bremen (9th) are two points behind, but host high-flying Leipzig.

And relegation?
Hannover (17th) and FC Nürnberg (18th) had their respective fates sealed long ago. Stuttgart (16th) will partake in the two-legged relegation play-off against the side that finishes third in the 2. Bundesliga, which will likely be either Paderborn or Union Berlin.

French Ligue Un

How many games are left?
Two.

Who’s winning the title?
Silly question, really.

Are the European spots sorted?
PSG (1st) and Lille (2nd) are definitely in the Champions League. Lille need one more point to confirm their place alongside them in the group stage. Lyon (3rd) are unlikely to catch them, but need no more than three points to secure the final Champions League place. They face Caen (18th) and Nîmes (8th).

Saint-Étienne (4th) are four points behind Lyon, but also four ahead of Montpellier in the race for the Europa League group stage spot. Three points from Nice (7th) and Angers (13th) will seal their place.

Rennes are in the Europa League group stage after winning the Coupe de France. Strasbourg will start in the second qualifying round for winning the Coupe de la Ligue.

And relegation?
Guingamp (20th) are the only side definitely headed for Ligue 2. Dijon (19th) are currently in the last automatic relegation place, with Caen (18th) and Monaco (17th) two points ahead, and Amiens (16th) four points clear.

Dijon must beat at least one of PSG or Toulouse (15th) to stand any chance of survival. Caen face Lyon and Bordeaux (14th), while Monaco host Amiens and visit Nice.

The side that finishes 18th in Ligue Un will face the third-placed team from Ligue 2 – Troyes – in a two-legged relegation play-off.

Russian Premier League

How many games are left?
Two.

Who’s winning the title?
Zenit St Petersburg, for the first time since 2015.

Are the European spots sorted?
Zenit are in the Champions League group stages. The final spot is likely to go to Lokomovic Moscow (2nd) who are two points ahead of Krasnodar (3rd), the team set for the third qualifying round. Spartak Moscow (4th), CSKA Moscow (5th) and Arsenal Tula (6th) are separated by a single point, with only two Europa League qualifying round places to hand out between the three of them.

Spartak have an inferior head-to-head record against both CSKA and the best Arsenal in the world, so will have to maintain their one-point advantage in games against Krylia Sovetov (13th) and Orenburg (9th). CSKA are ahead of Arsenal on head-to-head, and face Akhmat Grozny (7th) and Krylia Sovetov. Arsenal need to better their results against Krasnodar and Dynamo Moscow (12th).

And relegation?
Yenisey Krasnoyarsk (16th) and the formerly powerful Anzhi Makhachkala (15th) are down. But this is Russia, so one relegation play-off place is simply not enough. Which means the teams in 13th and 14th – currently Krylia Sovetov and Ufa respectively – will face their third and fourth-placed Russian Football National League counterparts for a place in next season’s Premier League. Tom Tomsk and Nizhny Novgorod fill those positions with two games remaining.

Portuguese Primeira Liga

How many games are left?
One.

Who’s winning the title?
Benfica or Porto.

What’s the state of play?
Benfica (1st) face Santa Clara (8th) on Friday evening needing just a draw to guarantee their fifth league title in six years. Porto (2nd) must beat Sporting Lisbon (3rd) at home and hope Benfica lose for the first time since January 2. The gap between the two clubs is just two points, but Benfica have the superior head-to-head record.

Are the European spots sorted?
Yep. Benfica and Porto are in the Champions League group stage and third qualifying round respectively as it stands. Sporting are in the Europa League group stage, with Braga (4th) in the third qualifying round. Moreirense cannot be caught in fifth place and the final Europa League qualification spot – courtesy of Porto and Sporting reaching the Taça de Portugal final – but did not apply for a UEFA licence in December due to the cost and the expectation that they would not qualify. The place therefore trickles down to Vitória de Guimarães in sixth.

And relegation?
With Nacional (17th) and Feirense (18th) already gone, fate has rather beautifully transpired to produce what is effectively a relegation play-off between Tondela (15th) and GD Chaves (16th) on Sunday evening. Chaves won 2-1 in January, meaning Tondela have to win to survive.

Belgian First Division A

How many games are left?
Loads, weirdly.

Who’s winning the title?
The lads over at Genk.

Are the European spots sorted?
Far from it. Genk are in the Champions League group stage and Club Brugge are in the third qualifying round, but nothing else is certain. Standard Liège (3rd) are currently residing in the Europa League third qualifying round spot, but are level on points with Antwerp (4th). They face Genk and Club Brugge respectively on Sunday.

Whichever side finishes 4th will have another chance to qualify for Europe. Belgium have this batsh*t Europa League play-off which consists of two six-team groups comprised of the teams that finished from 7th to 15th in Belgian First Division A, then three sides from Belgian First Division B. The winners of the two groups – Charleroi and Kortrijk as it stands – contest the play-off semi-final, with the team that finishes 4th in the post-season Championship play-offs awaiting in the final. Again, that place is currently taken by Antwerp.

The reward for all that is a place in the Europa League second qualifying round. Sake.

And relegation?
After all that Belgian waffle, relegation is as straightforward as the bottom team, Lokeren, dropping to First Division B. No play-off, no pistols at dawn, no dance-off. Nothing. Just a plain old, boring relegation.

Turkish Super Lig

How many games are left?
Two.

Who’s winning the title?
Galatasaray or Istanbul Başakşehir.

What’s the state of play?
It’s bloody brilliant; that’s what. This is the penultimate weekend of Turkish Super Lig action but it might as well be the last, as leaders Galatasaray host second-placed Istanbul Başakşehir on Sunday evening in a title play-off of sorts. They drew 1-1 in December, meaning even a 0-0 draw keeps Gala ahead on head-to-head away goals scored.

Gala face Sivasspor (12th) and Başakşehir host Alanyaspor (7th) next weekend, so whoever heads into that final set of games is likely to be crowned champions. Başakşehir have never been Turkish league champions, while Gala have won it 22 times.

Are the European spots sorted?
The top two will almost certainly be in the Champions League next season. Beşiktaş (3rd) can catch them both but must overhaul four-point gaps in two games, and face Trabzonspor (4th) on Friday evening. The former will likely be in the Europa League group stage with the latter in the qualifying rounds. Yeni Malatyaspor (5th) need two points to join them.

And relegation?
Akhisarspor (18th) are down. Any two teams from Sivasspor (12th) to Erzurum BB (17th) could join them. Erzurum BB are two points from safety, with Bursaspor (16th) just one point behind Göztepe (15th). Kasımpaşa (13th) and Ankaragücü (14th) are not certain of survival just yet.

Dutch Eredivisie

How many games are left?
Just the play-offs.

Who’s winning the title?
Those beautiful, blonde Ajax boys.

Are the European spots sorted?
Most of them. Ajax are in the Champions League third qualifying round, with PSV (2nd) in the second. Feyenoord (3rd) are in the Europa League third qualifying round, and AZ Alkmaar (4th) are in the second.

Then come the European play-offs. The semi-finals sees 5th face 8th and 6th take on 7th for a place in the final, with a Europa League second qualifying round place the reward. So Heracles are playing Utrecht and Groningen are against Vitesse. It’s great fun.

And relegation?
NAC Breda (18th) are relegated. Excelsior (16th) and De Graafschap (17th) will now take part in a relegation play-offs format that involves ten different teams and three rounds. Two spots in next season’s Eredivisie are on the line.

Scottish Premiership

How many games are left?
It varies.

How do you mean?
Well there’s the second leg of the Premiership play-off semi-final between Championship pair Dundee United (1) and Inverness (0) on Friday evening. The winner of that game faces whomever finishes 11th in the Premiership in a two-legged final for a place in next season’s top flight.

St Mirren are currently on course to finish in that fabled 11th place. They visit relegated Dundee (12th) on Saturday knowing that they need to better Hamilton’s (10th) result against St Johnstone (9th) to avoid the relegation play-off. Hamilton are one point clear of The Saints with a worse goal difference.

And that’s just the relegation and promotion stuff.

Who’s winning the title?
Celtic. Good old Neil Lennon.

Are the European spots sorted?
Celtic are in the Champions League first qualifying round and Rangers (2nd) are guaranteed a Europa League first qualifying round place.

Kilmarnock (3rd) are primed to secure that last guaranteed Europa League qualification spot. They lead Aberdeen (4th) on goal difference, with the latter needing to better Kilmarnock’s result against Rangers when they visit Hibernian (5th).

But both Kilmarnock and Aberdeen could yet take their places in the Europa League first qualifying round if Celtic complete the Treble Treble. They face Hearts in the final of the Scottish Cup in a fortnight and, save for a huge Jam Tarts surprise win, fourth place will take Scotland’s last Europa spot.

And relegation?
Dundee are down and out. Either St Mirren or Hamilton will join them if Dundee United or Inverness win the play-off final.

Matt Stead