Top 10 Premier League finishers defying their xG

We’re talking non-penalty G-xG, which is basically how many more (non-penalty) Premier League goals a player has scored over and above the xG of his chances. So in short, who is scoring more goals than he should? And no, Mo Salah is not even on the list. Statistics are taken from the brilliant FB.Ref.

10) Ruben Neves (Wolves)
Non-penalty goals: 4
Non-penalty xG: 1.1
Non-penalty G-xG: 2.9

Takes an awful lot of shots from outside the area – 35 of 38 this season were from distance. Some of them go in. That will keep down your xG. He might yet have a say in the title race.

9) Maxwell Cornet (Burnley)
Non-penalty goals: 7
Non-penalty xG: 4.1
Non-penalty G-xG: 2.9

And that’s why he is one player who will stay up in the Premier League even if Burnley go down.

8) Reece James (Chelsea)
Non-penalty goals: 5
Non-penalty xG: 2.0
Non-penalty G-xG: 3.0

Full-backs who score five goals are always likely to appear on such a list because their strikes are unlikely to be tap-ins. They missed him.

7) Conor Gallagher (Crystal Palace)
Non-penalty goals: 8
Non-penalty xG: 5.0
Non-penalty G-xG: 3.0

One of the revelations of the season and, on this evidence, the England international should more than hold his own for Chelsea if he returns there this summer.

6) Jack Harrison (Leeds United)
Non-penalty goals: 7
Non-penalty xG: 3.7
Non-penalty G-xG: 3.3

Three goals in his last three Leeds games have taken Harrison to within a strike of last season’s total despite a poor, poor campaign for the club. He may yet play for England.

5) Jamie Vardy (Leicester City)
Non-penalty goals: 10
Non-penalty xG: 6.6
Non-penalty G-xG: 3.4

Started only 16 Premier League games this season but still Leicester’s top scorer.

4) Emile Smith Rowe (Arsenal)
Non-penalty goals: 9
Non-penalty xG: 5.1
Non-penalty G-xG: 3.9

The magic has worn off; he has not scored on any of his last three starts as the Gunners have slumped to devastating back-to-back defeats.

3) Wilfried Zaha (Crystal Palace)
Non-penalty goals: 7
Non-penalty xG: 3.0
Non-penalty G-xG: 4.0

Five goals in his last six games as Palace have lost just once to Leicester City. He has already claimed his third double-figure Premier League scoring tally in four seasons.

2) Son Heung-Min (Tottemham)
Non-penalty goals: 17
Non-penalty xG: 12.1
Non-penalty G-xG: 4.9

Along with Vardy and Zaha, Son has scored with a remarkable 31% of his shots in the Premier League this season. And he is now breathing down the neck of Mo Salah for the Golden Boot.

1) Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City)
Non-penalty goals: 11
Non-penalty xG: 4.7
Non-penalty G-xG: 6.3

Just the best player in the Premier League.