When Guardiola leaves City there are only three possible destinations

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Pep Guardiola to Juve?
As a Juventus supporter, I was sceptical about the Guardiola rumours even as a corner of my heart dreamt of seeing him as our coach. On the other hand I was just as skeptical about the Ronaldo transfer, and see how that turned out. With Guardiola, there are a few indicators pointing to his rocking up at Juve – the restlessness he has showed with other clubs, his history in Serie A as a player, his chance to win titles in a fourth country and the unlikelihood that he would join a different club in Spain, Germany or England. That’s before even considering the potetntial FFP Champions’ League ban for City. I think that once Guardiola does leave City, there’s only 3 possible destinations – PSG, Juve or a return to Barcelona.

But here is why I really didn’t believe the rumour when it surfaced yesterday – Guardiola still has unfinished Champions League business at City, and it has taken him 3 years to build this team to arrive at this point. City will fight a Champions’ League ban tooth and nail and even if it comes into effect it most likely would be the following season not the next one. Pep to Juve isn’t exactly ‘codswallop’, but it won’t happen this summer, and probably not the next one either. I see him staying one more season (if he wins the Champions League next season) or two more seasons (after which I think he’d move on regardless of Champions league success).

For Juve I would be happy to see Sarri join. He’s a great coach, certainly underappreciated in England, and who has done excellent work at Napoli both in Serie A and in the Champion’s League. He has gotten the best out of Higuain before and could do it again, especially when reunited with his old partner-in-crime Ronaldo. And there is a spine of a ‘Sarri’ team already in place – keeper comfortable on the ball (Szczeny), attacking full-backs (Cancelo, Alex Sandro, Spinazzola), world-class centre-backs (Chiellini, Bonucci, Rugani who also had a breakthrough season with Sarri at Empoli), midfield passer (Pjanic) and runner (Ramsey), and the aforementioned Ronaldo and Higuain (if he returns after Chelsea loan).
James, Switzerland

I completely understand where Greg is coming from in the morning mailbox, about Guardiola challenging himself at a smaller club with low financial clout. But simply put, why would he? He’s had tremendous success with every club he’s managed, and why would he want to risk tarnishing his legacy by joining a “small” club and not doing especially well? In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if he completed the circuit with Juve, and maybe Spain before calling it a day.

When you’re looking for a new job, you look for the kind of setup that’ll play to your strengths and allow you to do your best work. Why would anyone settle for less? I get that football management is different, but I reckon the same logic would apply. If you’ve been fortunate enough to have that ideal work environment throughout your career, and are being constantly courted by the biggest and best employers in your field, why would you want to change that?

This has been repeated ad nauseam, but it’s not just enough to have the money, it’s about spending it wisely (as my club, United, have made painfully clear). I don’t think we’ll ever know how Guardiola will do at a lesser club, because it simply won’t happen. He’ll never be targeted by anyone but the biggest and best, and nor would he want to pass up any of those opportunities. And I honestly don’t think his legacy will be diminished in any way as a result of that. He will go down as one of the greatest coaches football has ever seen, because of all he’s achieved at every club he’s managed. Just as Messi won’t ever be considered anything less than one of the greatest players of all time, just because we never got to see if he could do it on a cold, wet night in Stoke.
DJ, MUFC India

Pandora’s Box…
MC,

I confess to feeling almost guilty; I suspect I may have been responsible for a decent proportion of your readership requiring hospital treatment for blood pressure related illnesses…

Since it would appear clarification is required: I am not realistically suggesting that all clubs should have a transfer committee made up of ex-players. Yes, time, technology and data have moved on to such a point that other ways of assessing new players are undoubtedly more effective.

The point, however, was that a) United appear to be basing their future planning on the opinion of generally unqualified ex pros (unless Nicky Butt has got a qualification in data interrogation I don’t know about), and b) running with the theme, I thought it would be an amusing concept and was genuinely interested in the thoughts of supporters of other teams.

Points go to Jason, Amro and Paul for not losing their sh*t over a hypothetical concept to while away 10 minutes on a sunny afternoon!

Now, roll on the play-off final…
Ed the Grouch (parenthesis)

Hi,

The criticisms of the idea of a Cantona/Rio/Scholes transfer committee are all spot on but I think they can be taken further. The idea that being a good player will automatically mean you are effective in another role is obviously total crap. I think the reason for this explained really well by the NFL pundit Mike Carlson.

If I remember correctly he was discussing Mike Singletary’s performance as a head coach. For those of you who don’t know, Singletary was one of the greatest linebackers to play the game but didn’t have much of a coaching career. Carlson made the point that if you a world class player it can be hard for you to understand why the players you are coaching (or scouting) can’t do the things you used to be able to.

In footballing terms, someone like Alan Shearer might struggle to understand why a striker he is watching doesn’t just ‘get his/her head on it.’ Similarly, Paolo Maldini could find it baffling that the defender he is coaching doesn’t see the pass that the midfielder is about to make.

This doesn’t mean you can’t be both a great player and a great coach. plenty of folks have managed to do it. It just means that you need to understand the limitations of players if you want to make the jump. Cantona/Rio/Scholes might be able to do this when they are looking at potential transfer targets (thinking what they can do in a particular system rather than want they can’t do) but I don’t know they have demonstrated the ability to do this so far.
NorthernSoul NUFC

In response to Ed the Grouch and his theory that Darren Sodding Fletcher does not have “the pedigree to pass comment on the capability of other players”.

Since only world-class players make world-class scouts and transfer negotiators, I am going to replace all the scouts on my Ajax save on Football Manager 2019 with Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (once he retires), van der Sar, Frank de Boer, and a few of the other usual suspects.

But let me take up his challenge anyway. If I had to pick 3 ex-players (forward, midfield, defence) to curate transfers for Liverpool, and ultimately decide who is good enough in the relevant positions, I would pick:

Defence: Carragher seems an obvious choice. But I would take Sami Hyypiä instead. Unlike Carra, Sami has coached at the top level. And while he hasn’t been wildly successful as a coach, he sort of knows what it takes to be a good player.

Midfield: Xabi Alonso – “I don’t think tackling is a quality. Tackling is a last resort, and you will need it, but it isn’t a quality to aspire to.”

If he can’t identify capable midfielders, very few (ex-players) can.

Forwards: Dirk Kuyt. I can imagine Kuyt the scout being as hard-working as Kuyt the player-going through pages of data, analyst reports, and hours of videos before arriving at a conclusion.

The full-back cometh.
Siddharth

Sir Alex Ferguson as a player
I’m neither a Manchester United fan, nor a fan of any of the clubs he played for, so I’m not sure why it grinds my gears so, but I really think we need to have an instant moratorium on the idea that Sir Alex Ferguson was a mediocre footballer. While at Dunfermline, his goals led them to almost win the Scottish league in 1965, and he was the joint-leading scorer in the Scottish League that season. In the summer of that year, he signed for Rangers for a then-Scottish record fee, and he performed well in both domestic and European football, before making a high-profile mistake in the 1969 Scottish Cup Final, where his slack marking allowed Billy McNeill to score.

It’s true to say that he was never capped internationally, but this was the 1960s, when there were very very good players playing for Scotland. The likes of Denis Law, Colin Stein and Ian St John were keeping him out of the team. (Stevie Chalmers, one of Celtic’s greatest ever players only got five caps over the same period.) And over the period when he was playing and scoring a lot of goals in the Scottish League, Scottish teams were at their most competitive in Europe.

In summary, while Alex Ferguson was maybe not a Hall-of-Famer, he was a very very good player.
Dara O’Reilly, London

Two-leg European finals?
Dear Editor,

Just a quick thought, not sure if this has already been discussed as not read much of the mailbox lately (apologies), but in light of the issues around the Baku final, and indeed the issue of Liverpool and Spurs fans trying to get to Madrid. I was wondering about the pros and cons of two-legged finals?

For UEFA it’s probably a big negative, as they love a bidding war and a ceremony to announce the winner. But for fans in particular there might be something in it? You could do a draw for who plays first at home. You can give greater allocations of tickets to the fans, and (as would please UEFA) probably have more overall hospitality tickets.

Moreover, whilst admittedly some fans might still find themselves travelling a huge distance, it would mean some people, for example season ticket holders, are able to attend the game.

And then there’s the drama. Look at those Semi-finals. Comebacks in European finals are rare (Istanbul the obvious exception), but two legs?…

Realise this will never happen, and don’t get me wrong, I love the one-off final, but it just seems a little silly to have four sets of fans travelling to Madrid and Baku, when that could be reduced to a cross city jaunt, or a drive up the M6.

One final thing, if it’s all about revenue, think of it this way…

Anfield + The Totteham Stadium capacity 116,000 vs 69,000 at the Wanda Metropolitano
Stamford Bridge + The Emirates capacity 101,000 vs 69,000 at the Baku Olympic stadium

Just a thought!
Marc, London

St Totteringhams Day…
It’s just suddenly occurred to me that I seem to have missed St Totteringham’s Day this year? What gives Arsenal fans? Eh?

If you could let me know when it was that’d be grand.

Ta muchly!
Gregory Whitehead, LFC

Baku
A month ago, about all I knew about Baku and Azerbaijan was where there were on the map. The I met someone from the country and got the inside track on some of it’s history. The war with Armenia is not technically over but the worst of the trouble was in the early nineties, there remains a disputed region. I’m sure there is a lot I still don’t know about the situation but hearing of the men returning home (those who did) after the bigger conflicts with PTSD and all the scars of war, I can see sometimes there are more important things than football. I can understand where it comes from, the Armenians suffered atrocities at the hands of Turkey which the Turks still refuse to admit to, let alone apologise for. Azerbaijan is a Turkic country, had numerous squabbles with Armenia and bars entry to any one of Armenian descent, not just passport holders. However the authorities in Baku understood the situation with Mhiki and were willing to make an exception and guarantee his safety. I’m not surprised he said no, it’s a big deal but could the authorities in Baku do any more?

As a member of UEFA, the football grounds of Azerbaijan like Baku are entitled to apply to host a European final just like anyone else. UEFA is not political and does not consider politics when it awards a finals to a country. Unfortunately there are still frictions between UEFA members and there always will be. Currently we have Gibraltar/ Spain, Russia/ Ukraine and Serbia/ Kosovo all with their own peculiar issues and others tend to come and go. Many of these have been going on for years and they have to be considered as imperfections in any system but what were the chances of an Armenian in the Europa League final? You’d have got better odds on Elvis being found alive at the start of the season. I don’t remember any Arsenal European games being brought closer to home because Dennis Bergkamp would not get on  a plane. I know this is a bit different but my point is that UEFA can’t legislate for everything.

As for boycotts and protests, this isn’t really UEFA’s fault, Baku provided a compliant bid and won, there may be corruption involved but no more than at any other awarded ground. Baku did what they could to facilitate Mhiki playing and should be applauded for that. This won’t be the last time this sort of thing happens. People need to get some perspective, to this day there has been no official peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Rob, Gravesend

If the final had been Valencia v Eintracht Frankfurt, would anyone even care about the venue? How long ago was the venue announced? Where has the outrage been? It all looks to me like an opportune time to demonstrate what fine morals we all have.

And the cynic in me thinks that if it was Spurs fans complaining at this stage, we’d be told this is what we deserve for playing in the tin pot instead of champions league.
Matt Carr. Spurs, Wilmington, NC

Premier League winners
The snippet at the end of your piece about Juve and Pep, about becoming the 2nd manager to win the English championship three times on the bounce, caught my eye. I figured you meant the Premier League and was in full “football was invented before 1992” mode, assuming that Paisley or Busby must have done it in their respective times of dominance. Turns out they haven’t and I was getting risible for nothing; however, it did shine a light on a lovely lit titbit that I was unaware of.

Since football was invented in 1992, no English manage has ever won the championship. Scots, unsurprisingly, top the list then the Italians, with Portugal a close 3rd.

I can’t think of many other than Kevin Keegan who’ve even been in with a shout. Will an Englishman ever win the English league again….?
Alex, (and, by the way, Amro, Alex Ferguson was a cracking player: United stalwart!), Ayr

James Rodriguez criticism
It seems over the years, every time his name comes up in the Gossip column he gets knocked for bad form, or being a flop since signing for Real after the Brazil World Cup, or nebulous criticism about attitude or work rate. I notice because he is one of my favorite players to watch, and it strikes me as a blind spot on an otherwise well-researched site.

The truth is a little more complicated — he is adored by both Munich and Madrid supporters with many clamoring to keep him or bring him back. And his first, injury-free season at Madrid was an unqualified success with huge assist and goal tallies under Ancelotti. His relationship with Ronaldo was particularly fruitful, thus the Juventus rumors.

His big problem is a real one, but it’s certainly not quality, work rate or form; it’s injuries. He has rarely been able to string more than 5-7 games in a row over the last few seasons, making him unreliable to his various coaches. This is particularly troublesome for a player who at his best dictates the rhythm of the game. You saw the two Colombias at the World Cup — the one with him (inventive, positive, goal scoring) and the one without him (negative, cynical, limited). When a player is that influential to how a team plays, and has a bad injury record, the issue is fairly clear.

So, in sum: his injury record probably doesn’t warrant a move to one of those big clubs. But it’s not really form— when he’s played he has largely been very good. It’s not lack of work rate— see Liverpool Champions League match at Anfield playing in what was essentially a holding midfielder role. And it’s not difficulty adapting to the top level either— he has been the best player on the pitch more often than not when he is actually on the pitch, for Bayern. And was in that first season often, for Real too, which is saying something.

No doubt one of those big clubs — Juve or PSG would be my pick with the slightly slower pace of play more forgiving to an injury-prone player — will fancy a gamble on getting him fit and firing for the peak years of his career.

Or he’ll end up at Wolves, and predictably be injured most of the time in the physically demanding Premier League.
Ned