When the PL top six are most dangerous and most vulnerable…

Date published: Monday 18th March 2019 1:13

MANCHESTER CITY
Whatever Pep Guardiola says in the dressing room seems to work because City are most dangerous at the start of either half. The Blues have scored five more goals than anyone else in the opening 15 minutes of matches.

Perhaps understandably, City struggle to maintain that pace and intensity, with over half of their goals conceded coming towards the end of each half, though the champions are the only team in the Premier League not to have conceded in either period of added time. They have themselves netted six times after the fourth official has held his board aloft.

First-half goals scored: 41 – 52%
Second-half goals scored: 38 – 48%

First-half goals conceded: 12 – 48%
Second-half goals conceded: 13 – 52%

Most dangerous periods:
46-60 mins: 17 goals scored – 21%
1-15 mins: 15 goals scored – 19%
31-45+ mins: 14 goals scored – 18%
16-30 mins: 12 goals scored – 15%
76-90+ mins: 12 goals scored – 15%
61-75 mins: 9 goals scored – 11%

Most vulnerable periods:
31-45+ mins: 7 goals conceded – 28%
76-90+ mins: 6 goals conceded – 24%
61-75 mins: 4 goals conceded – 16%
16-30 mins: 3 goals conceded – 12%
46-60 mins: 3 goals conceded – 12%
1-15 mins: 2 goals conceded – 8%

 

LIVERPOOL
The Reds’ win at Fulham was typical of their season. Sadio Mane opened the scoring midway through the first half, before Jurgen Klopp’s men offered their opponents some encouragement and an equaliser in the middle part of the second period. Ryan Babel’s equaliser preceded a rousing finish, which Liverpool often enjoy.

No team in the Premier League has scored more goals in the last period before the final whistle, with Liverpool having scored five goals in added-time – a joint PL high with Man City and Bournemouth – in addition to the 13 netted between minutes 76 and 90. But that adventure appears to come at a cost, with Liverpool also most vulnerable to conceding at the time they are most dangerous.

Liverpool matches are much like NBA games: just tune in for the final quarter to see the real action.

First-half goals scored: 31 – 44%
Second-half goals scored: 40 – 56%

First half goals conceded: 9 – 40%
Second half goals conceded: 12 – 60%

Most dangerous periods:
76-90+ mins: 18 goals scored – 26%
16-30 mins: 14 goals scored – 20%
61-75 mins: 13 goals scored – 19%
46-60 mins: 9 goals scored – 13%
31-45+ mins: 9 goals scored – 13%
1-15 mins: 7 goals scored – 10%

Most vulnerable periods:
61-75 mins: 5 goals conceded – 25%
76-90+ mins: 5 goals conceded – 25%
31-45+ mins: 4 goals conceded – 20%
1-15 mins: 3 goals conceded – 15%
16-30 mins: 2 goals conceded – 10%
46-60 mins: 1 goal conceded – 5%

 

TOTTENHAM
The most startling figure here is the number of second-half strikes Spurs are conceding – almost three-quarters of their opponents’ goals are coming after half-time.

Spurs’ levels of fatigue are a recurring theme this season and they appear to struggle to maintain their defensive concentration as games creep towards the final whistle. The fact that almost 40% of the goals they have conceded have arrived in the final 15 minutes, with 10 goals between 76-90 minutes and another couple in added time, has to be a concern for Mauricio Pochettino.

In attack, Spurs have a relatively even distribution, though they appear strong during the middle phase of either half.

First-half goals scored: 28 – 49%
Second-half goals scored: 29 – 51%

First-half goals conceded: 8 – 26%
Second-half goals conceded: 23 – 74%

Most dangerous periods:
16-30 mins: 12 goals scored – 21%
61-75 mins: 10 goals scored – 18%
76-90+ mins: 10 goals scored – 18%
31-45+ mins: 10 goals scored – 18%
46-60 mins: 9 goals scored – 16%
1-15 mins: 6 goals scored – 11%

Most vulnerable periods:
76-90+ mins: 12 goals conceded – 39%
46-60 mins: 7 goals conceded – 23%
61-75 mins: 4 goals conceded – 13%
1-15 mins: 3 goals conceded – 10%
31-45+ mins: 3 goals conceded – 10%
16-30 mins: 2 goals conceded – 6%

 

ARSENAL
For the first part of the season, Arsenal were very much a second-half team. It took them until December 22 before they held a half-time lead. Their spread of goals scored marries with that label.

No team has a more uneven distribution of goals scored over either half, with none of the three first-half periods bettering any of the second-half spells. And you cannot blame Arsenal fans for nipping off early for their half-time cuppa – their attacking productivity in the period immediately before the break slumps quite dramatically.

It’s not a smart idea, though, to leave Arsenal games early to beat the traffic…

First-half goals scored: 25 – 40%
Second-half goals scored: 38 – 60%

First-half goals conceded: 23 – 55%
Second-half goals conceded: 19 – 45%

Most dangerous periods:
76-90+ mins: 15 goals scored – 24%
46-60 mins: 13 goals scored – 21%
61-75 mins: 10 goals scored – 16%
1-15 mins: 10 goals scored – 16%
16-30 mins: 10 goals scored – 16%
31-45+ mins: 5 goals scored – 8%

Most vulnerable periods:
61-75 mins: 11 goals conceded – 26%
31-45+ mins: 10 goals conceded – 24%
16-30 mins: 8 goals conceded – 19%
76-90+ mins: 7 goals conceded – 17%
1-15 mins: 5 goals conceded – 12%
46-60 mins: 1 goals conceded – 2%

 

MANCHESTER UNITED
United are slow starters in both halves, with the numbers backing up what many supporters will tell you about the tempo in opening periods of their matches. It has been a bugbear of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer of late, and it is not easy for any team to belatedly get going once they have started slowly.

In an attacking sense, United are more dangerous in the latest periods of both halves, but 42% of the goals David de Gea has conceded have come in the last half-hour. Home fans at Old Trafford should stay in their seats until the half-time whistle because that’s when United are most dangerous in attack and most secure at the back – they have scored 15 and conceded only three immediately before the break. Perhaps it was the thought of facing Jose Mourinho’s wrath at half-time that focused United minds…

First-half goals scored: 30 – 52%
Second-half goals scored: 28 – 48%

First-half goals conceded: 17 – 45%
Second-half goals conceded: 21 – 55%

Most dangerous periods:
31-45+ mins: 15 goals scored – 26%
76-90+ mins: 13 goals scored – 22%
16-30 mins: 9 goals scored – 16%
61-75 mins: 8 goals scored – 14%
46-60 mins: 7 goals scored – 12%
1-15 mins: 6 goals scored – 10%

Most vulnerable periods:
61-75 mins: 8 goals conceded – 21%
76-90+ mins: 8 goals conceded – 21%
1-15 mins: 7 goals conceded – 18%
16-30 mins: 7 goals conceded – 18%
46-60 mins: 5 goals conceded – 13%
31-45+ mins: 3 goals conceded – 8%

 

CHELSEA
Don’t worry if you’re running late for a Chelsea match. Chances are, there haven’t been many…

Chelsea’s opening quarter of an hour is the least productive phase of any 15-minute period played by anyone in the top six, and only Leicester and Crystal Palace have scored fewer early goals in the Premier League. But Maurizio Sarri’s men concede fewest in that period too.

It seems to be that the final period of each half when Chelsea come alive, especially in dying stages of matches. No team in the top six has scored a greater portion of their goals in final stages. Perhaps it is because, like at Everton, they are chasing games having emerged from the half-time break still half-asleep…

First-half goals scored: 22 – 44%
Second-half goals scored: 28 – 56%

First-half goals conceded: 14 – 40%
Second-half goals conceded: 21 – 60%

Most dangerous periods:
76-90+ mins: 16 goals scored – 32%
31-45+ mins: 10 goals scored – 20%
16-30 mins: 9 goals scored – 18%
46-60 mins: 6 goals scored – 12%
61-75 mins: 6 goals scored – 12%
1-15 mins: 3 goals scored – 6%

Most vulnerable periods:
46-60 mins: 9 goals conceded – 26%
61-75 mins: 6 goals conceded – 17%
76-90+ mins: 6 goals conceded – 17%
16-30 mins: 5 goals conceded – 14%
31-45+ mins: 5 goals conceded – 14%
1-15 mins: 4 goals conceded – 11%

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