Who misses the most Big Chances? It’s not Salah…

Date published: Wednesday 14th November 2018 8:27

With all the fuss about Mohamed Salah, Alvaro Morata and Romelu Lukaku struggling in front of goal, we thought we would look at the players who have missed the most ‘Big Chances’, as defined by Opta as ‘a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score’. These players have all missed seven or more such chances…


JAMIE VARDY (Leicester City)
Goals: 3
Shots: 24
Conversion rate: 12.5%
Big Chances missed: 7

From a 28% conversion rate down to 12.5% is quite the fall from grace. Are we seeing the beginning of the end of the 31-year-old? He has not scored since September.


Goals: 6
Shots: 48
Conversion rate: 12.5%
Big Chances missed: 7

And there’s another man having a poor season – but the volume of chances means that he has still managed to score six Premier League goals. Against Fulham on Saturday, he had four shots from within the penalty area; only one was scored. That’s pretty much ‘doing a Salah’ these days.


Goals: 3
Shots: 35
Conversion rate: 8.57%
Big Chances missed: 7

Already beloved of Wolves fans for his hold-up play and selfless running, but it is becoming very clear why the Mexican has never scored more than seven league goals in a season in Europe. As Ian Wright said: “He reminds me so much of Olivier Giroud. He might get less than 10 goals in a season but he’ll get around 15 assists.”


Goals: 5
Shots: 27
Conversion rate: 18.52%
Big Chances missed: 8

Some days he looks like he is back, and then other days he looks like a lumbering fool. As Daniel Storey wrote in Winners and Losers: ‘Morata’s problem – similarly to Lukaku’s, actually – is that when he is playing badly it is very obvious very quickly. While Eden Hazard and Willian try to zip around him, Morata looks sluggish and sulky.’ The one Big Chance he got against Everton on Sunday was saved by Jordan Pickford; he never really recovered.


GABRIEL JESUS (Manchester City)
Goals: 1
Shots: 14
Conversion rate: 7.14%
Big Chances missed: 8

It’s pretty damning when you have played just 296 minutes of Premier League football and still managed to miss eight Big Chances. Jesus is still only 21 so there are mitigating factors, but we had expected him to be closer – not further away – to usurping Sergio Aguero after almost two years in England. How can you take 14 shots and miss eight Big Chances?


CALLUM WILSON (Bournemouth)
Goals: 6
Shots: 31
Conversion rate: 19.35%
Big Chances missed: 10

Four goals in his last five games have hauled Callum Wilson into Gareth Southgate’s England squad for the first time. But the numbers suggest that he could have been up there alongside Sergio Aguero as the Premier League’s top scorer. Would he really be an upgrade on Alvaro Morata for Chelsea?

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