Who SHOULD have scored the most goals this season?

Date published: Tuesday 8th October 2019 8:07

Mohamed Salah Liverpool

We look at the xG numbers – thanks to understat – to find out who should be the Premier League’s top scorers judging by the quality of the chances they have enjoyed. You will not find Teemu Pukki and Jamie Vardy on this list because they are feeding off scraps and thriving…


10) Harry Kane (Tottenham)
Expected goals: 3.68
Actual goals: 5

Harry Kane has consistently outscored his xG throughout his Premier League career but it’s worth noting that his xG per 90 has never been so low as this season within this broken Tottenham side.


9) Sebastien Haller (West Ham)
Expected goals: 4.24
Actual goals: 4

It’s interesting (to us, anyway) that West Ham are basically creating a very similar standard of chance for the Frenchman as Eintracht Frankfurt last season. So expect him to score 20 goals if he stays fit for the majority of the Premier League season.


8) Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Arsenal)
Expected goals: 4.35
Actual goals: 7

He is basically keeping Arsenal in a Champions League place with some supreme finishing. The quality of his chances have decreased from last season but he is actually scoring more goals. With Alexandre Lacazette missing, he basically has no choice.


7) Marcus Rashford (Manchester United)
Expected goals: 4.39
Actual goals: 3

A missed penalty does a fair bit of damage to these statistics but one goal from open play from a player who has taken 18 non-penalty shots is pretty damning. Jose Mourinho was right; he is not a striker.


6) Callum Wilson (Bournemouth)
Expected goals: 4.44
Actual goals: 5

Getting exactly the same standard of service this season (0.57xG per 90) as last at Bournemouth but is outscoring those expectations this season so could well beat last season’s total of 14 goals. It’s little wonder that he is being touted as a replacement for Rashford at Manchester United.


5) Wesley (Aston Villa)
Expected goals: 4.59
Actual goals: 4

Had Wesley not missed (or not taken) Saturday’s penalty against Norwich, the big man would be just about bang on his xG for the season, despite a glaring miss against West Ham last month. Some Aston Villa fans had been campaigning for his demotion but others knew that a two-goal salvo was coming.


4) Tammy Abraham (Chelsea)
Expected goals: 4.68
Actual goals: 8

Simply ridiculous numbers.


3) Raheem Sterling (Manchester City)
Expected goals: 4.8
Actual goals: 6

Last season was the first in which Sterling scored more goals than he should, and he is heading the same way this season. He could conceivably have already been in double figures if Pep Guardiola had let him off the bench against Watford.


2) Mo Salah (Liverpool)
Expected goals: 5.06
Actual goals: 4

A general decline? After scoring 32 goals from an xG of barely 25 in 2017/18 and then 22 goals from 21.79 in 2018/19 comes a wasteful start to the season which has seen him score just four goals from 26 shots. For comparison, Tammy Abraham has scored twice as many goals from the same number of total shots and – as we saw above – the Chelsea striker’s chances have not been nearly as clear-cut. Thankfully, Sadio Mane is out-performing his own xG by some margin.


1) Sergio Aguero (Manchester City)
Expected goals: 6.79
Actual goals: 8

He has literally never been presented by such quality of chances in a Manchester City shirt; he has an xG of 1.1 per 90 minutes this season; which is mental. And he probably should be in double figures already as he actually missed a raft of chances in the 8-0 win over Watford.

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