Who will win the 2026 Ballon d’Or? Lionel Messi now the favourite

Sarah Winterburn 16 Jul 2026 7:20 AM

Harry Kane and Lionel Messi

As soon as Ousmane Dembele was awarded the 2025 Ballon d’Or, the speculation began about the 2026 iteration.

But we know that realistically, the Ballon will go to the World Cup winner. And that means the odds are changing all the time

Who are the favourites to win the 2026 Ballon d’Or?

10) Declan Rice (Arsenal/England)

Looked broken at the World Cup after a phenomenal season for Arsenal which absolutely rules him out of the Ballon d’Or running.

9) Erling Haaland (Man City/Norway)

Let’s face it, if he had somehow dragged Norway to an unlikely World Cup win, he would have absolutely deserved it.

8) Michael Olise (Bayern Munich/France)

We thought it was a left-field choice in December but he ended the season brilliantly with Bayern Munich. This looked really quite likely until France were dumped out of the World Cup by Spain.

7) Ousmane Dembele (PSG/France)

The 2025 Ballon winner had a season punctuated by injury but he somehow still scored 20 goals for PSG, including seven in the knockout stages of the Champions League and one in the final. But he probably needed France to win the World Cup and that did not happen.

6) Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid/England)

Won nothing for Real Madrid in 2026 and then won nothing for England in 2026, with his World Cup ending with a whimper against Argentina.

5) Rodri (Man City/Spain)

A former winner the last time Spain won a major tournament and they could absolutely do it again. They will need Rodri to be brilliant in the World Cup final to make it happen.

4) Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid/France)

He presumably thought that he would dominate the post-Messi/Ronaldo era, but he is yet to claim his first Ballon d’Or. Two years after arriving at Real Madrid, he is also yet to claim a proper trophy in Madrid colours. It looked like he might dominate the World Cup enough to take home this gong too, but he was poor with the rest of the France side v Spain.

3) Lamine Yamal (Barcelona/Spain)

“Lamine Yamal is the best player in the world by far. It’s not just because he’s my son, but because he’s the best player in the world.”

That might be so, Lamine Yamal’s dad, but that’s not exactly how this works. He needs to go and win more trophies in 2026, preferably including the World Cup. He has claimed La Liga but that won’t be enough. If his Spain beat Argentina in the World Cup final, there’s definitely a chance.

2) Harry Kane (Bayern Munich/England)

Can lay claim to being the most consistent goalscorer in world football over the last decade and yet he has never ranked higher than 10th in the Ballon d’Or. Does pure goalscoring butter no parsnips? He’s the top scorer of 2026 so far by an absolute mile, did he need a World Cup win to cement his case? The bookies seem to think not, with France’s exit perhaps working in his favour even after England’s semi-final exit.