FFP and other reasons why January 2024 transfer window has been deathly quiet
We don’t need the numbers to know that his January has been quiet for transfers. The Premier League hasn’t spent even 10% of what they did a year ago. Here are a few reasons why…
In truth, the January transfer window has been quiet. Actually, if we’re being really honest, it’s been absolutely crap.
So far, Premier League clubs have spent less than £50million this month – around 5% of the total spend during the January 2023 window.
But why did the Premier League suddenly got stingy?
FINANCIAL FAIR PLAY
The obvious reason for so few clubs being prepared to spend is because many are walking an FFP tightrope. And if any chairmen were thinking of flouting the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability Rules, they have all just watched Forest and Everton get their arses kicked. Twice in the Toffees case.
“The reality is the Everton judgment showed that there were teeth to the PSR regime,” said Newcastle CEO Darren Eales when his club posted a £73.4million annual loss last week. “I think that’s something that’s probably focused a lot of minds within the Premier League that this is something that’s real.”
Forest and Everton both have excuses but none washed with the Premier League. So, for any club on the edge of the PSR limit, the sensible ones will have retreated back from the line, which inevitably effects what January recruitment plans they may have had.
Is that a bad thing? Of course not. The rules are doing exactly what they were put in place for: to make clubs spend within their means. And if, in some cases like Newcastle, that means below their means, then that is better than the alternative of chasing the dream Leeds style.
Todd Boehly was 2023’s Peter Ridsdale but even Chelsea have clammed up. After spending a billion-plus in a year, they know they have to rein it in. Mauricio Pochettino would love a forward but unless the Blues sell, he, like most other managers, will have to make do. It could be that they are forced to sell academy graduates Conor Gallagher or Armando Broja, but if they expect anyone to pay £50million in the coming week for a striker with three Chelsea goals, perhaps sanity has not yet prevailed at Stamford Bridge.
THRIFTINESS NOT LIMITED TO ENGLAND
The lack of business is not limited to the Premier League. Across Europe, it’s deathly quiet. Won’t someone think of the poor agents?
One of the primary reasons that it is quiet on the continent is because of the Premier League’s new-found restraint. To European clubs, the Premier League is what the Saudi Pro League is here. And even in Saudi, there appears to have been a cooling of the jets after a bats**t summer, perhaps before another big push during the next off-season. Still, even then, no one is likely to be daft enough to pay £50million for Manchester United’s cast-offs.
Many of those European clubs’ business models rely on the Prem pound. So if English clubs are keeping their cash in their pocket, inevitably so too are European sides. Even the traditional big hitters.
Barcelona are looking for a midfielder but only on loan. Juventus are in a similar predicament, while Bayern Munich are shopping for cheap veterans. No one, even PSG, is immune from the pinch.
AFCON, ASIAN CUP SCHEDULING
The mid-season international tournaments haven’t helped. If some managers were considering cutting loose some of their fringe players, many have been needed to cover for AFCON and Asian Cup absences.
And the players currently on international duty are not as attractive as they might have been. Some AFCON stars won’t be available until late February while the Asian Cup final is only a day earlier.
NO PANIC, NO PARTY
None of this is to say that it will remain quiet. January tends to prompt panic, especially at the bottom of the table, which could yet set in.
But the relegation battle is not as fraught as perhaps it has been previously. The bottom three are exactly who you and the clubs involved might have expected. Sheffield United and Burnley both need reinforcements but budgets are restricting them, while neither would be blamed for having one eye on the Championship next season.
Perhaps they might see Everton and Forest’s looming appearances before independent panels as their best way out of trouble rather than trying to buy or borrow their way out? Luton’s squad is settled and they aren’t desperate for any particular position.
Above them, Everton and Forest have already had their fingers burned, while Brentford have got a star like-a-new-signing in Ivan Toney returning. Palace need to do something, but their manager rather than their squad might be focus of that.
Beyond that bottom seven, the sense is likely to be one of ‘what we have we hold’.
At the top, as clubs love to tell us, there is rarely value in the market, and as much as Arsenal might like a centre-forward, it might cost them a bloody fortune. Whereas in previous years a club in their position might have thrown a little more caution to the wind, the Gunners look understandably wary of making a big move.
Above them, Liverpool and Manchester City look settled, the smug b******s, while around and below Arsenal, Villa aren’t tempted to chuck everything at the unlikeliest title push since Leicester eight years ago, while Tottenham, traditionally stingy in January and the other 11 months, have already done more than anyone else in the market.
Will the widespread financial reticence hold through to the deadline? Probably. The FFP landscape won’t alter much, but given what we know about Premier League clubs, it is hard to believe that at least one won’t be tempted in by the opportunity offered by everyone else’s reservation. And just one is all it takes to spark the domino effect.
Read more: All the completed Premier League deals in the 2024 January transfer window