Worst 10 Premier League finishers owned by their xG

Sarah Winterburn
Tottenham striker Harry Kane misses another chance

We’re talking non-penalty G-xG, which is basically how many more or less (non-penalty) Premier League goals a player has scored above or below the xG of his chances. So in short, who is scoring more goals than he should and who is scoring less? 

We have the over-achievers here so it’s time to look at those who are not hitting the heights they should. We start with the best of the worst and end with the real wasters.

Statistics are taken from the brilliant FB.Ref.

 

10) Adam Armstrong (Southampton)
Non-penalty goals: 2
Non-penalty xG: 3.8
Non-penalty G-xG: -1.8

The real winners here are Blackburn, who sold Adam Armstrong for £16m and replaced his goals from within their own ranks as Ben Brereton-Diaz became an unexpected superstar. Armstrong has struggled with the transition to Premier League football and the Saints remain among one of the lowest scorers in the top flight.

 

9) Adama Traore (Wolves)
Non-penalty goals: 0
Non-penalty xG: 1.8
Non-penalty G-xG: -1.8

No goals from 21 shots is an almost sarcastic return from one of the original ‘no end product’ players. Wolves are somehow in eighth and yet have scored fewer goals than Burnley or Newcastle. It’s almost sorcery.

 

8) Ilkay Gundogan (Manchester City)
Non-penalty goals: 3
Non-penalty xG: 4.9
Non-penalty G-xG: -1.9

This time last year, Gundogan was scoring a ridiculous 11 goals in a 12-game spell as City moved from seventh to first in two extraordinary months. That feels slightly less likely now.

 

7) Sadio Mane (Liverpool)
Non-penalty goals: 7
Non-penalty xG: 8.9
Non-penalty G-xG: -1.9

While Mo Salah scores with 29% of his shots this season, Mane is scoring with just 22% of his. The total of seven Premier League goals looks creditable enough, but in comparison with his Liverpool teammate, he is having a mare.

 

6) Jarrod Bowen (West Ham)
Non-penalty goals: 3
Non-penalty xG: 5.0
Non-penalty G-xG: -2

“Ultimately we want him to get into goalscoring positions to get the goals, he got some last season and I think he can do better this year,” said David Moyes in September. The numbers suggest the goalscoring positions are there but not the goals, with Bowen on target to fall short of last season’s eight-goal total.

Jarrod Bowen celebrates his goal

 

5) Timo Werner (Chelsea)
Non-penalty goals: 1
Non-penalty xG: 3.2
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.2

Just Chelsea’s Timo Werner there doing his usual Chelsea’s Timo Werner things. “He’s looked sharp in training, scored many goals in training, so that is why I went with my guy and put him on the pitch,” said Thomas Tuchel after a 1-1 draw with Manchester United that saw a particularly toothless Timo display.

 

4) Trincao (Wolves)
Non-penalty goals: 0
Non-penalty xG: 2.6
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.6

The good news is that he is hitting the target with 40% of his shots; the bad news is that they’re largely all straight at the keeper. He has started only one of Wolves’ last five Premier League games.

 

3) Bryan Mbeumo (Brentford)
Non-penalty goals: 2
Non-penalty xG: 4.7
Non-penalty G-xG: -2.7

Finishing has not been his strong suit this season…

…but scoring an injury-time penalty to beat Watford might well be priceless at the end of the season.

 

2) Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City)
Non-penalty goals: 2
Non-penalty xG: 5.0
Non-penalty G-xG: -3.0

No Premier League goals since September for the perennially wasteful Jesus, but only Mo Salah and Trent Alexander-Arnold has more assists, so we think Pep Guardiola will forgive him.

 

1) Harry Kane (Tottenham)
Non-penalty goals: 2
Non-penalty xG: 5.8
Non-penalty G-xG: -3.8

Phenomenal levels of under-achievement there. Only Diogo Jota, Salah, Mane and Jamie Vardy should have scored more Premier League goals this season. In reality, he has scored fewer than 6o players including Ben Chilwell, Andros Townsend and Reece James.

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