Are prediction markets legal? That’s the million-dollar question. It’s not easy to answer, either, as some states oppose them and others don’t. But what does the law say? And how do you find safe and legit event contract trading sites?
Prediction markets in the USA: Where?! Who?! How?!
Safe to say that prediction markets are the new kid on the block that everyone’s excited to play with. These sites have sprung from nowhere and changed how people enjoy sports, so the hype is very much real.
One thing that might be troubling you about them is their availability in your neck of the woods. There’s
a lot
of misinformation out there about where you can and can’t access
prediction market websites, not to mention who they’re open to.
With that said, it’s time for a sport of myth-busting…
What you need to know about prediction market availability in the US
The big takeaway when researching prediction markets is this: the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) controls who’s in and who’s out. If a brand has backing from these guys, it
should
be available where you live.
The CFTC is basically the federal watchdog looking over US derivatives markets. Prediction markets fall under its watch because the event contracts traded on registered exchanges are treated as derivatives. Sounds a bit technical, but the simple version is this: CFTC oversight is something worth looking at when checking out a prediction market. Just keep in mind that being CFTC-regulated doesn’t automatically mean a platform is available in every state. State-level access can still be a bit of a mixed bag.
So, before you jump in, check the platform’s current state availability. It takes a few seconds and tells you whether prediction trading is available where you live.
Where are prediction markets available?
Alright, so where can you actually get in on prediction markets? This is where things get a little state-specific. Prediction markets are available across much of the US, but your options can look different depending on where you are. Some states have plenty of platforms to explore, while others have restrictions, ongoing disputes, or platform-specific blocks to deal with.
And yes, the whole thing can get confusing pretty quickly. One platform might be available in a state while another is blocked, and access can also depend on the type of market you’re looking at. Rather than sending you into a legal rabbit hole, here’s a table focused on states where you may need to take a closer look:
Being listed under “Availability may vary” doesn't mean prediction markets are completely off the table. It just means things can get a little messy, with access differing based on the platform, the type of market you're looking at, or what's happening at the state level.
And if your state isn't mentioned in the table, you're generally good to explore prediction markets there. Just don't treat that as a forever guarantee. The rules and availability can shift as states make new moves, court decisions come in, or platforms update where they operate.
Basically, this is one of those areas where it's smart to check twice. What works today might look a little different down the road, so take a quick look at the latest availability for your state before you sign up and get stuck in.
Getting started with a new prediction market: The ultimate checklist
Determined to join a prediction market? That’s the spirit. But if you’re totally new to these sites, you might need a steer in the right direction when getting started with one.
Here’s a complete checklist for prediction market newcomers, factoring in availability, due diligence checks, and other key points to consider.
Do you know how prediction markets work?
Prediction markets have quickly gone from a niche idea to something you’ll see all over the place. But before jumping in, it’s worth knowing what’s actually going on behind the scenes.
The basic idea is pretty simple: you trade contracts based on the outcome of a future event, with the contract price reflecting the market’s current view of how likely that outcome is. There’s a little more to it than that, of course, so getting familiar with the basics can make the whole thing much easier to follow.
There are plenty of guides and resources online covering event contracts, market prices, trading and settlement. A quick read before getting started can save a lot of head-scratching later.
Are X, Y, or Z brands available in your state?
Do a little digging to find out exactly which prediction markets are open for business in your state. There are a few tell-tale ways to do this, including:
- Check a platform’s T&Cs. It might list restricted territories or exclusions that will affect you.
- Search for the brand and your state. If there are ongoing issues, you’ll soon know about it.
- Try to access different platforms. If your state’s blocked, a geofence may appear.
Which event trading contracts are available?
Just because prediction markets are available in your state doesn’t mean every type of event contract is automatically on the menu. This is where things can get a little tricky.
Depending on where in your region, certain markets may have restrictions. Sports, financial events, politics and other topics can all be treated differently, so the contracts available to you may not be the same as those offered in another state.
And honestly, there’s nothing worse than finding a market you want to trade, only to discover it’s not available in your area. A quick check before signing up can save you the hassle and give you a clearer idea of what you can actually access.
Is it backed by the CFTC?
Whatever you do, only ever choose prediction markets regulated by the CFTC. Sure, this federal body may be enemy number one in some states, but it remains the only way to identify legit event trading sites.
The CFTC has published a list of all the Designated Contract Markets (DCMs) that it regulates, so take a look and make sure the platform you’ve found is listed.
Amid all this talk of state-by-state availability, it’s easy to get bogged down and overlook the finer details. You’re here for a good time, right? So the prediction market you choose needs to reflect that.
Some prediction markets are better than others. Look for brands that offer the best markets, the most varied topics, and the strongest contract resolution rules. You might even find prediction markets offering promotions, incentives, and rewards, so that’s worth considering. And if you’d prefer to use your smartphone, finding the best prediction market apps is essential.
Here are some of the attributes to look for:
🔍 A solid scope of topics and markets
The whole ethos behind prediction markets is that they let users make predictions on just about anything. The premise behind sites like Kalshi and Polymarket is that they offer total freedom when it comes to the events you’re able to forecast.
The reality is a bit different though, especially when you account for state-specific restrictions. Some markets and topics may be unavailable where you live, which can affect your experience.
Triple-check which markets and topics a platform offers in your state before you register. That way you can compare different brands and make sure you’re getting the best experience.
🛠️ It has to be easy to use
No one likes landing on a platform that they have no clue how to use. So, how prediction markets are designed and set up is important, and could be a real dealbreaker if things are overly complicated from the get go.
Look for prediction markets with an intuitive design and easy navigation options. An app is great too, allowing for complete mobile compatibility. Some sites also offer some useful guides and tutorials – ideal for newbies still learning the ropes.
Promos aren’t the be-all-and-end-all of choosing a prediction market, but they can sweeten the deal. There aren’t any prediction markets with a permanent welcome bonus in place, but some brands offer these kinds of perks as part of regular, limited-time-only deals.
One type of reward you might find at prediction markets is a refer-a-friend bonus. These sites are eager to onboard new members, and so incentivize you to spread the word. It’s worth using friend referrals when you can, as you could collect free credits for each new user you bring aboard.
Key takeaways: What are the pros and cons of US prediction markets?
With so much to take in about the availability of prediction markets in the US, your head might be spinning with all that new information. So take a step back for a second and review this shortlist of pros and cons, which might help you to see the wood for the trees.
Pros
+
Available in 50 states with CFTC approval
+
A new way to enjoy sports
+
Alternative markets may be available
+
Profile is growing
+
Safe and regulated at the federal level
Cons
−
Complex landscape around availability
−
Ongoing disputes and issues
The availability of US prediction markets depends on your state
If only there were a cut-and-dried answer to the question of prediction market availability. In many states, it’s pretty straightforward: CFTC-regulated platforms are available, giving you plenty of options to explore.
Elsewhere, things can be a little more mixed. Some platforms may have limited access depending on your location, while availability can also change as the prediction market landscape develops. In other words, what’s available today might not look exactly the same tomorrow.
So, before you sign up, check your state on the platform you’re interested in. It only takes a moment and saves you from getting halfway through the process before discovering that your location isn’t supported.
If prediction markets are your thing, take a look at the recommended platforms featured on this page and see which options are available in your region.
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Are prediction markets available in the USA? FAQs
🔎 What is the CFTC and what does it stand for?
CFTC stands for Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This is the federal agency that regulates prediction markets in the USA. If a brand’s approved by these guys, you know it’s a goodie.
🤔 Why are prediction markets blocked in my state?
For a few different reasons. It might be that lawmakers in your state take issue with these sites because they contradict local laws, or that they disagree with them in principle.
✅ Are prediction markets safe?
Yes, so long as you only use sites approved by the CFTC. Prediction markets are regulated and safe to use, but you still run the risk of losing money.
🏆 What are the best prediction markets in the USA?
There are a handful of big-name prediction markets that come up time and again when discussing the best sites. These include Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com to name a few.
