Newcastle v Qarabag predictions: Magpies to complete stroll into Champions League last 16
Newcastle United all but sealed their place in the last 16 of the Champions League in the first leg of their play-off tie with Qarabag.
Anthony Gordon scored four goals in Azerbaijan, while Malick Thiaw and Jacob Murphy also got on the score sheet to give Newcastle a 6-1 win.
They now need to complete the job in the second leg at St James’ Park, and that will set up a last-16 clash with either Barcelona or Chelsea.
But their three-game winning run came to an end at the weekend as they lost 2-1 away to Manchester City in the Premier League.
Qarabag haven’t played since the 6-1 defeat in the first leg as their Azerbaijan Premier League match against Neftchi was postponed in order to give them more rest.
How to watch Qarabag vs Newcastle
Newcastle vs Qarabag kicks off at 20:00 (UK) on Tuesday, February 24 at St. James’ Park. The game will be shown live on Amazon Prime, with coverage starting from 18:30.
BBC Radio 5 Live will provide full match commentary.
Newcastle team news
Malick Thiaw received a yellow card in the first leg against Qarabag and it was his third in the Champions League this season, forcing him to now serve a one-match ban.
Dan Burn and Joelinton are both on two yellow cards in the competition and need to avoid another booking on Tuesday night if they want to feature in the first leg of the Round of 16.
While Howe may want to rest the duo against Qarabag, he is short of options in defence and midfield.
Fabian Schar won’t be back until April with an ankle injury and Emil Krafth has been ruled out for the rest of the season after undergoing knee surgery.
Tino Livramento and Bruno Guimaraes are both sidelined with hamstring injuries, while Lewis Miley is continuing to work his way back from a leg injury
Sven Botman and Yoanne Wissa could return after missing the last three games with small injury issues, although Howe is unlikely to take any risks in this dead-rubber.
With a 6-1 lead, Howe could give minutes to some of their promising young players, including Leo Shahar, Alex Murphy and Sean Neave
Newcastle expected line-up
(4-2-3-1) Ramsdale; Trippier, Botman, Burn, Hall; Willock, Ramsey, Joelinton; J. Murphy, Osula, Barnes
Qarabag team news
Bahlul Mustafazade was forced off before half-time in the first leg after picking up a muscle strain and could be set for a lengthy spell on the sidelines.
Despite being a right-back, Dani Bolt replaced Mustafazade and filled in at centre-back. He could start at St James’ Park, although Badavi Huseynov and Samy Mmaee are more natural centre-back options.
Back-up goalkeeper Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev is the only other injured player in the Qarabag squad.
Qarabag expected line-up
(4-2-3-1) Kochalski; Silva, Huseynov, Medina, Cafarquliyev; Jankovic, Bicalho; Andrade, Montiel, Zubir; Duran
Newcastle v Qarabag stats
– No team in major European competition history has lost the first leg of a two-legged knockout stage tie by five goals and gone on to progress.
– Newcastle’s victory in the first leg means English sides have won nine of 10 games against Qarabag in major European competition (D1). The aggregate score across those nine victories is 33-2.
– Qarabag have played five previous matches away to English sides, losing all five by an aggregate score of 1-19, and failing to score in each of the last four trips.
– Newcastle have won five of their nine games in the Champions League this season (D2 L2) – if they win here, it will be the most victories they’ve achieved in a single edition (6), overtaking their five from 12 games in 2002-03.
– Newcastle’s biggest ever aggregate win in Europe is by eight goals, achieved in a 10-2 victory against Royal Antwerp in the UEFA Cup in 1994-95.
– Anthony Gordon has scored 10 goals for Newcastle in the Champions League this season; the only players with more goals for an English club in a single edition in the Champions League are Ruud van Nistelrooy (12 for Manchester United in 2002-03) and Erling Haaland (12 for Manchester City in 2022-23).
– Newcastle have scored in each of their last 11 matches in the Champions League (25 goals scored); only Bayern Munich (15) are currently on a longer streak of consecutive games scored in.
– Bayern Munich currently hold the record for the biggest aggregate win in the Champions League, having beaten Sporting 12-1 over two legs in 2008-09.
Newcastle v Qarabag prediction
While Newcastle may decide to rest some of their key players, they should still get another comfortable win against Qarabag.
They were 5-0 up at half-time in the first leg and a strong start will put this tie beyond any doubt. You can get Newcastle/Newcastle in the Half-Time/Full-Time market at 8/13.
But Newcastle have conceded in their last nine games in all competitions and Qarabag will want to go out with a fight, so we’re backing both teams to score at 20/21.
While we’re not expecting another seven goals in the second leg, over 3.5 goals feels likely and looks good value at 8/11.
William Osula is in line for a rare start and should get a number of opportunities against a poor defence. He’s 13/10 to score anytime.
