Newcastle v Man City prediction: Backing the Toon at home with goals predicted
Newcastle United host Manchester City at St James’ Park on Tuesday night as the two sides meet in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final.
The Magpies are bidding to defend the trophy they lifted last season, while City are looking to reclaim a competition they dominated between 2018 and 2021.
Both sides arrive in decent form, setting up a first leg that feels balanced, with the return fixture taking place at the Etihad in early February.
Newcastle finally ended their long wait for silverware last season by lifting the EFL Cup, and Eddie Howe’s side have enjoyed an impressive defence of that title so far.
Victories over Bradford City, Tottenham, and Fulham have taken the holders back to the semi-finals, while their recent home form has been formidable, with United unbeaten in 13 matches at St James’ Park.
They also have reason to be confident against City on Tyneside. Newcastle have won two of their last four home meetings with Guardiola’s side and have beaten City in both of their most recent EFL Cup encounters.
Manchester City arrive in similarly strong form, unbeaten in their last 12 matches across all competitions and coming off a remarkable 10-1 win over Exeter in their most recent outing.
However, the EFL Cup has not been kind to City in recent seasons, making this their first semi-final appearance in the competition since 2021.
How to watch Newcastle v Man City
Newcastle vs Man City will be shown live on ITV 1 and Sky Sports Main Event, with kick-off at 8pm on Tuesday, January 13.
Newcastle team news
Dan Burn, Emil Krafth, Fabian Schär, Jamaal Lascelles, and William Osula are all unavailable, while Anthony Elanga remains a doubt after picking up a knock.
Harvey Barnes is expected to start after scoring four goals in his last two appearances, with Anthony Gordon, Nick Woltemade, and Yoane Wissa likely to complete the attacking unit.
In midfield, Bruno Guimarães is set to return alongside Sandro Tonali, while Lewis Miley could again be used in defence following recent injuries.
Newcastle expected lineup
(4-2-3-1) Ramsdale; Miley, Thiaw, Botman, Hall; Tonali, Guimarães; Gordon, Woltemade, Barnes; Wissa
Man City team news
John Stones, Josko Gvardiol, Mateo Kovacic, Ruben Dias, Savinho, and Oscar Bobb are all sidelined, forcing Guardiola to continue reshaping his back line.
Max Alleyne and Abdukodir Khusanov have featured regularly at centre-back in recent matches, with Matheus Nunes and Nico O’Reilly expected to operate as full-backs.
Phil Foden was rested last time out and is expected to return, joining Rayan Cherki, Tijjani Reijnders and Jeremy Doku in support of Erling Haaland.
Man City expected lineup
(4-3-3) Trafford; Nunes, Khusanov, Alleyne, O’Reilly; Gonzalez, Reijnders, Foden; Cherki, Doku; Haaland
Newcastle v Man City stats
– Newcastle are unbeaten in their last 13 home matches at St James’ Park across all competitions.
– The Magpies have won both of their last two EFL Cup meetings with Manchester City.
– Newcastle have won two of their last four home games against City, drawing one and losing one.
– Manchester City are unbeaten in their last 12 matches across all competitions.
– City are appearing in their first EFL Cup semi-final since the 2020–21 season.
– Newcastle have won all three of their EFL Cup matches this season on their way to the semi-finals.
– Manchester City scored 10 goals in their most recent outing against Exeter City.
Newcastle v Man City predictions
Newcastle’s home record and recent performances in this competition suggest they will not approach the first leg cautiously, particularly with their attacking form at St James’ Park.
City, however, are unbeaten in 12 matches and carry a consistent goal threat, even with defensive absences. On the other hand, the hosts are also struggling to keep teams out.
Both teams to score appeals given Newcastle’s scoring run at home and City’s attacking depth, though 8/15 is a bit skinny.
Over 2.5 goals also stands out as both teams will want to snatch the advantage, though 3/5 still isn’t enough to tempt us into a bet.
Newcastle’s fantastic home form, coupled with the likelihood of goals, makes 4/1 on Newcastle to win and both teams to score tempting.
While much of the focus will be on City’s superstars, Harvey Barnes has been excellent in recent weeks. He’s 6/5 to score or assist.
