The likely scenario that opens up a NINE-WAY tussle for Champions League qualification
It’s late April and there are only a few games left of the Premier League season. You know what that means? It’s permutations time, baby.
Around this time of year, a lot of time, energy and column inches are spent on all the would bes and what ifs in the run-in.
During Manchester City and Arsenal’s title ding-dong on Sunday, Peter Drury gave a cursory mention to the scenario of a Premier League title play-off – something that not only would’ve required the score to remain at 1-1, but a set of scorelines so specific you might as well dream about your Euromillions ticket coming in instead.
But the thing this time around is there’s actually a unique and interesting scenario, pertaining to Champions League qualification, that might actually happen. Genuinely. Honestly.
For sixth place in the Premier League to qualify for next season’s Champions League, just two things need to happen.
First up, it requires Aston Villa to win the Europa League.
Secondly, it requires them to finish fifth in the table.
That’s it. No ifs or buts. No terms and conditions. No ridiculously convoluted caveats.
Per UEFA’s new-ish rules, the European Performance Spots fifth place (confirmed thanks to the English clubs’ strong performance across all three competitions) would drop down to sixth if Villa finish outside the Premier League’s top four but qualify primarily as Europa League winners.
That all sounds remarkably within the realms of possibility, doesn’t it? Villa are into the semi-finals of the Europa League, have a four-time winner in their dugout, and are comfortably the favourites to get their hands on the trophy.
(As an aside, Nottingham Forest winning the competition and getting relegated, giving them Champions League and Championship football next season, is an underdiscussed sequence of hilarious events.)
Villa can now afford to put their focus onto the competition. Tammy Abraham’s last-gasp winner against Sunderland saw Villa move 10 points clear of Chelsea in sixth. With just five games left to play, qualification is practically wrapped up.
With one eye on the Europa and a tricky run-in (Fulham, Tottenham, Burnley, Liverpool and Manchester City), there’s every chance they get leapfrogged by Liverpool – three points behind with superior goal difference – come the final table. Especially as their final day clash at title-chasing City comes a few days after a likely Europa League celebration hangover.
Chelsea’s collapse – four defeats on the bounce, the worst run of form of any side in Europe’s five major leagues – combined with Manchester United, Villa and Liverpool getting their acts together, has threatened to turn the race for Champions League qualification into a damp squib.
“Of course we still believe. I don’t know why you would ask that question?” Liam Rosenior snapped back at a journalist when asked about the possibility of failing to qualify for the Champions League before Saturday’s defeat to Manchester United.
Perhaps he’d read the intricacies of Dale Johnson’s latest explainer on the BBC website. Familiarise yourself with the UEFA technical regulations, lads. Sixth place is on.
We’re on for an all-timer of a Champions League royal rumble if sixth place turns out to be enough. There are no fewer than eight(!) teams within six points of sixth-place Chelsea.
Defeat away to Brighton this evening would see Fabian Hurzeler’s Seagulls, in form after taking 10 points from the last 12 on offer, move above Chelsea in the table.
Come Monday night, Chelsea could find themselves out of the FA Cup and overtaken by Brighton, Bournemouth, Sunderland, Brentford and Everton. Gulp. We’d love to hear the right pearl of wisdom out of the High Performance podcast if that comes to pass.
Even Newcastle, miserable as they are after three successive league defeats following their Champions League exit, aren’t completely out of the mix. Eddie Howe ought to be ruing their inability to see out their leads against Sunderland and Crystal Palace.
If the Magpies can dust themselves off and put together a winning run, the opportunity is there to shoot up the table.
If sixth really does become the promised land, then this is less a race and more a scrap in a pub car park. Nine teams, none entirely convincing, all intermittently compelling, swinging wildly from week to week.
All of which points towards a finale befitting the chaos. Unlikely challengers slugging it out, permutations being worked out on the fly, eyes glued to the live table and shifting scorelines.
Over to you, Villa – please give us the spectacle.
READ MORE: Revisiting top 10 funniest season outcomes: Spurs, Arsenal on track, Liverpool not so much