World Cup 2026 qualification: who’s already qualified, who’s likely to join them, and how it all works
You know what’ll be here before we know it? The World Cup. Yeah.
It’s a) only 14 months away and b) absolutely bloody massive. Some might suggest it is, if anything, Clive, almost too massive. As you no doubt know by now there are a frankly unwieldy 48 teams heading to USA, Canada and Mexico next summer and that means the various qualification processes across FIFA’s six continental confederations all look a bit different this year.
All apart from CONMEBOL, of course, who remain rightly and righteously wedded to their lovely 10-team league. It is, admittedly, an option not really open to any of the other confederations.
Anyway, what we’re driving at is that it’s already high time we take a look at how these various qualification tournaments are progressing – and some of them have five separate stages so it’s all going to take a bit of unravelling.
We already know seven of the 48 and can start to have a decent go at guessing a good chunk of the remaining 41…
Teams who have qualified for the 2026 World Cup:
USA (hosts)
Mexico (hosts)
Canada (hosts)
Argentina (CONMEBOL)
Japan (AFC)
Iran (AFC)
New Zealand (OFC)
2026 World Cup qualification: UEFA (Europe)
Total teams: 54
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 16
Already qualified: None
How it works:
Very early stages in European qualification. As in ‘not even started yet’ for several countries, with those in four-team groups not getting involved until September. Which is quite literally next season.
The 54 teams have been split into 12 qualifying groups, half with five teams and half with four. The four teams who have made it to the last four of the Nations League are all in late-starting four-team groups while they conclude that Nations League hooplah, while the five-team groups could have no more than one team involved in Nations League title/promotion/relegation palaver who are thus also still to get underway but will do so in June.
Everyone else in the five-team groups kicked off last month.
The 12 group winners all qualify directly for the World Cup, with the 12 runners-up plus the four highest-ranking Nations League group winners who have finished outside the top two in their groups then setting off down four play-off routes to settle the four remaining places.
That does provide a potential safety net for both England and Wales, who are ranked fifth and seventh respectively among Nations League group winners after their triumphs in League B and would thus be almost certain to be handed a play-off spot even if they did finish outside the top two of their groups.
Even Northern Ireland down in 12th after a League C win could find easily themselves in the play-offs via that route if need be given the likelihood of most Nations League group winners above them finishing in the top two of their qualifying groups anyway.
One general thing to note is that UEFA are pound-for-pound the smallest ‘winner’ from the World Cup’s expansion having gained only three spots from 2022’s 13. Unlike everywhere else, it isn’t conspicuously easier to qualify now than it was before. UEFA is also the only confederation that won’t be represented at the inter-confederation play-offs.
Likely qualifiers:
Too early to rubberstamp anyone, especially with the strongest teams based on Nations League results yet to get under way, but Germany, France, Spain and Portugal will all be heavy favourites to top what appear on paper weak four-team groups (and as the four Nations League A group winners are already guaranteed at least a play-off spot), while England have made a perfect start in their own none-too-threatening five-team pool.
More interesting and fun with UEFA is generally trying to see which powerhouses might get themselves in a pickle and there’s a few trappy looking roads ahead for some World Cup stalwarts.
Netherlands are yet to kick off their Group G campaign but will have to reel in a Poland side with two wins from two already, while Italy would have hoped for something easier to get them over their recent World Cup qualification heebie-jeebies than finding a route past a Haaland-propelled Norway who already have six points to their name from 4-2 and 5-0 away wins.
Croatia are perhaps the most snookered of the teams yet to even kick a ball in a five-team group and thus forced into playing catch-up, with both Czech Republic and Montenegro picking up six points in their absence from the early games in Group L.
READ: Who are the current favourites for the 2026 World Cup?
2026 World Cup qualification: CAF (Africa)
Total countries: 53
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 9 + 1 inter-confederation play-off
Already qualified: None
How it works:
Jumping from five qualifiers for 2022 to nine (and a half) for 2026 has required a reworking of the African qualifying format.
There are (or at least were) nine groups of six, with each group winner going to the World Cup, and the four best runners-up heading for play-offs to secure a spot in the last-chance-saloon inter-confederation play-offs (about which more later) that take place next March.
That runner-up ranking bit has been rendered distinctly messy by the fact Group E now contains only four teams rather than six following Congo’s suspension and Eritrea’s withdrawal. It’s not yet clear how FIFA and/or CAF plan to mitigate the obvious impact this will have on the second-place finisher in that group and their hopes of making the play-offs.
Likely qualifiers:
With four games left for each team in (most) groups, nothing is locked in and several groups are still far too close to call. But there are some potential upsets around the place.
Ivory Coast hold only a one-point advantage over Gabon in Group F, while Senegal currently trail DR Congo in Group B, with Cameroon behind Cape Verde in Group D.
Nigeria are struggling even to make the play-off picture, down in fourth place in Group C.
Morocco are closest to securing qualification. They’re in that messy Group E, but rising above all the goings-on with a nine-point lead over second-placed Niger.
Egypt are five points clear in Group A and should be fine, while South Africa are also five clear in Group C.
Algeria, Tunisia and Ghana would all expect to hold their current leads in Groups G, H and I, although none is yet decisive.
2026 World Cup qualification: AFC (Asia)
Total countries: 46
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 8 +1 inter-confederation play-off
Already qualified: Japan, Iran
How it works:
It’s a long old process, with five stages – the first two of which also served as qualification for the 2027 AFC Asian Cup.
Luckily it all got underway right back in October 2023 and we’re now approaching the finish line of the crucial third stage, the one that decides six of the eight direct qualifiers.
The 18 teams that made it this far were split into six groups of three, with the top two from each group making it to the World Cup.
The teams finishing third and fourth in each group progress to the fourth stage, where they are split into two groups of three.
The two winners of those groups will also qualify for the World Cup, and the two runners-up go to stage five: a two-legged continental play-off for a spot in the intercontinental play-off.
Not everyone is or can be as straightforward about these things as CONMEBOL.
Likely qualifiers:
With only two third-round group matches left for everyone – to be played in June – the picture is pretty clear in most cases.
Iran are certain to finish in the top two of Group A, with Uzbekistan warm favourites to join them – they hold a four-point lead over third-placed UAE.
South Korea are almost through in Group B, with Jordan, Iraq and Oman all battling to join them in the top two and thus the World Cup.
Japan have dominated Group C – winning six and drawing two of their eight games – and Australia are hot favourites to join them in the automatic qualifying positions.
It all leaves familiar World Cup qualifiers Saudi Arabia – as well as 2022 hosts Qatar – likely to find themselves fighting for one of the two remaining spots from the fourth stage of an exhaustingly lengthy process.
2026 World Cup qualification: CONCACAF (North America, Central America and Caribbean)
Total countries: 32 (plus USA, Mexico and Canada)
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 6 + 2 inter-confederation play-offs
Already qualified: USA, Mexico and Canada
How it works:
Six direct qualification spots plus a double helping of play-off action sounds very exciting, but you do have to remember half of those six direct spots have already been claimed by the hosts.
Nevertheless, the removal of two CONCACAF powerhouses in USA and Mexico in particular still offers all kinds of chances for all kinds of teams.
With the hosts accounted for and a couple of play-offs eliminating the lowest-ranked teams, the remaining 30 CONCACAF members were split into six groups of five for a single round-robin (i.e. two home games, two away) with the top two from each of those groups going to the final stage where the remaining 12 teams will be drawn into three groups of four.
Those groups will play out a full home-and-away round-robin with the three group winners off to the World Cup, and the best two runners-up heading to the intercontinental play-offs.
Likely qualifiers:
Too early to say with a whole group stage still to come for which we don’t yet have any confirmed qualifiers. We’re currently at the halfway point of the first group stage, with the remaining matches coming up in June, so we should know more by then. But Honduras, Costa Rica, Curacao, Haiti, Nicaragua, Panama, Guatemala, Jamaica and Suriname all have two wins from two and a decent grip on a place in the final stage.
2026 World Cup qualification: CONMEBOL (South America)
Total countries: 10
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 6 + 1 inter-confederation play-off
Already qualified: Argentina
How it works:
South American qualifying has always possessed a pleasing straightforwardness, and the expansion of the finals has had no real impact on this beyond further diluting what little jeopardy exists for the stronger nations.
It’s still a clean and simple 10-team league, with everyone playing everyone else home and away. Just now with over half of those teams earning a direct path to the finals, and the team in seventh heading to the intercontinental play-offs where they should have a very good chance of success anyway.
Likely qualifiers:
We’re in the closing stages here, with every team now having played 14 of their 18 matches and a pretty clear picture emerging.
Holders Argentina are already safely through to defend their title, while a cluster of five teams trailing in their wake but separated by just three points are all close to joining them. Ecuador, Uruguay, Brazil, Paraguay and Colombia should all get over the line now, with a five-point gap separating the last of that group from seventh-placed Venezuela.
They in turn are one point clear of Bolivia, making their clash in the next international break a six-pointer in the race for the play-off spot.
Peru and most surprisingly Chile are four points further adrift right at the back of the pack and struggling even to get into that play-off equation now.
2026 World Cup qualification: OFC (Oceania)
Total countries: 11
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 1 + 1 inter-confederation play-off
Already qualified: New Zealand
Already qualified for inter-confederation play-offs: New Caledonia
How it works:
The ins and outs don’t really matter now; it’s all finished. Suffice to say it ended with New Zealand – very much the dominant force in the post-Australia OFC – securing the confederation’s first ever direct-qualification World Cup spot with a 3-0 win over New Caledonia, who still have the chance to do a madness in the inter-confederation play-offs.
2026 World Cup qualification: Inter-confederation play-offs
Total countries: 6
Already qualified for play-offs: New Caledonia (OFC)
Total 2026 World Cup spots: 2
How it works:
New Caledonia will be joined by two teams from CONCACAF and one each from AFC, CAF and CONMEBOL as detailed above in a quickfire tournament to be played in one of the three host countries in March next year.
The four qualifiers ranked lowest by FIFA will meet in a pair of one-off semi-finals for the right to face the two highest-ranked teams in one-off finals that will decide the final two qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup.