Germany decision pushes Scotland closer to the brink of World Cup exit

Steve Clarke might have smiled for the first time in 24 hours when he saw the Germany team to take on Ecudaor. But the scowl was surely back on the Scotland manager’s face after Julian Nagelsmann’s momentum mission failed in New Jersey.

Clarke needed Germany to deny Ecuador their first win of the World Cup to cling on to what slim hopes he retains of being the first Scotland manager to take the Tartan Army into the knockout rounds.

Germany are already there and, perhaps worryingly for Scotland, they were going through as Group E winners regardless of the outcome against the considerably more incentivised Ecuador.

But with little at stake for Germany, Nagelsmann’s selection was a boon for Scotland.

When many would have rested key players to prepare for whatever awaits in Boston on Monday – the temptation surely heightened by having already lost his best defender in Nico Schlotterbeck – Nagelsman selected his strongest available XI.

“Looking at the weeks leading up to the World Cup, one of the key topics was that the team needed time to gel and that we hadn’t played enough games together. Now we’ve played two matches, and we’re already debating how many changes to make. I don’t see the point in that.”

Nagelsmann’s reasoning was sound but perhaps it was inevitable that Germany struggled to ‘gel’ while self-preservation never seemed far from his players’ minds.

It didn’t appear that way when Germany – and Scotland, unfamiliarly – got off to a great start, Florian Wirtz teeing up Leroy Sane to score his first goal at a major finals, but only after Aleksandar Pavlovic somehow escaped VAR scrutiny for putting his boot in Pedro Vite’s face.

Ecuador surely needed no more motivation beyond the knowledge that victory would surely take them through, but the injustice seemed to rouse them.

Nowhere was the contrast in motivation greater than midfield. Ecuador ran all over Germany, Moises Caicedo leading the charge, ably assisted by Vite and Alan Franco, following Wirtz into central areas from right-back to supress the Germany playmaker.

Even without their tentativeness – understandable if not acceptable – Pavlovic and Felix Nmecha might have struggled with Ecuador’s enthusiasm. Still, the Germany midfielders didn’t have to gift Ecuador their equaliser.

It began with the sloppiest of touches from Nmecha, gifting possession deep in Die Mannschaft’s half. When the ball was worked to Nilson Angulo, Pavlovic had the opportunity to block the Sunderland star’s shot but his challenge lacked the necessary intent, serving only to screen Manuel Neuer from a drive that was past him before the 40-year-old moved.

This being Ecuador’s first goal of the tournament illustrates why they were on the brink. In a defeat and a draw so far, they scored nothing from an xG of 4.6. Having finally got off the mark, they spent the rest of the first half chasing a second.

They threatened most amid the chaos, despite Sebastian Beccacece’s constant demands from the touchline for calm, controlled possession, the message somewhat undermined by the coach’s own nervous energy.

Enner Valencia was clearly listening shortly after half-time when he passed up the chance to break on a retreating defence, turning back instead to give Ecuador – and Germany – the chance to reset and find their shape.

Ecuador were unlikely to pass around or through Germany, but they always had the upper hand in duels, with Germany often reluctant combatants.

Even Neuer looked wary of asserting himself. The Germany goalkeeping legend had already got away with one mis-step when Jonathan Tah intervened instead, leading to another chance Ecuador could not take.

The Germany pair were not as fortunate shortly after on 77 minutes. An Ecuador corner was flicked on between Neuer and Tah, the defender leaving it for his goalkeeper while failing to screen him from Gonzalo Plata. Rather than stretch to punch, Neuer waited to gather, giving Plata chance to get there first and grab the goal Ecuador so badly needed.

With the round of 32 in sight, Ecuador defended their lead with all the resilience that saw them concede only seven in 20 games in the run up to the World Cup. Now, finally, Beccacece’s side had found some potency to complement the defensive robustness.

Defeat has no impact on Germany’s route, but the same cannot be said of their morale and, doubtless, the scrutiny back home.

Nagelsmann’s selection did not pay off. A stodgy, reserved performance raised more questions than answers. Perhaps he and Germany would have been better served playing the reserves, or at least a swathe of those on the sidelines itching to prove their worth.

Like Deniz Undav. Three goals and two assists in his 58 minutes so far could not earn the Stuttgart striker greater prominence even in a game on which nothing stood.

Rather than gaining momentum, Germany’s was checked. And with it went even more of Scotland’s fading hopes.