Arsenal get lucky in ranking of Premier League teams by Champions League draw difficulty
The Champions League draw is done and we now know the eight games each of the Premier League teams will play, with Matchday 1 under three weeks away.
Clubs will play against two teams from each of four pots – allocated based on their individual coefficient ranking – in their eight games, facing one from each home and one away. But sides from the same league could not be drawn against each other at this stage, nor could they play more than two opponents from the same league.
Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea were in pot one, Arsenal were in pot two, Tottenham in pot three and Newcastle in pot four.
Once each team has played their respective eight games, the top eight in the 36-side league will automatically progress into the last 16 of the competition. The teams placed from 9th to 24th will be involved in a round of play-offs. These two-legged ties will decide the remaining eight teams to advance into the knockout stages. But we’re getting ahead of ourselves.
We’ve ranked the Premier League challengers on the ease of their eight fixtures through a statistical method akin to putting one’s finger in the air, starting with the most fortunate. The dates of the fixtures are yet to be decided, with the group phase calendar set to be released on Saturday.
6) Tottenham
Borussia Dortmund (H), PSG (A), Villarreal (H), Frankfurt (A), Slavia Prague (H), Bodo/Glimt (A), Copenhagen (H), Monaco (A).
The reigning champions won’t scare them after they went toe-to-toe with PSG in the Super Cup and it looks relatively simple besides, with Borussia Dortmund absolutely the side from pot one everyone will have been hoping for. Thomas Frank’s lucked out here.
5) Arsenal
Bayern Munich (H), Inter (A), Atletico Madrid (H), Club Brugge (A), Olympiacos (H), Slavia Prague (A), Kairat Almaty (H), Athletic Club (A).
Athletic Club feels like a difficult pot four clash and offers the intrigue of Nico Williams getting the better of his long-term suitors, but that’s balanced out by Kazakhstani side Kairat Almaty at home being about as easy as it gets.
Harry Kane at the Emirates will be fun and we imagine Diego Simeone will make for similarly absorbing content as he postures on the touchline with Mikel Arteta, but Arsenal will fancy themselves in both of those games. Neither club are what they once were.
We could see them stumbling at Inter, but Club Brugge, Olympiacos and Slavia Prague are all very gentle opponents.
READ MORE: Gary Neville makes bold Liverpool vs Arsenal prediction as Ian Wright chips in
4) Liverpool
Real Madrid (H), Inter (A), Atletico Madrid (H), Frankfurt (A), PSV (H), Marseille (A), Qarabag (H), Galatasaray (A).
At first glance it looks challenging, but we genuinely think Inter away will be the only concern for Arne Slot and Liverpool, and we don’t quite know whether their defence will be as miserly without Simone Inzaghi calling the shots.
They will fancy themselves against Real Madrid at home, we’ve all now stopped pretending Atletico Madrid are a Champions League threat, particularly away from the Metropolitano, and while we fully expect the dangers of the atmosphere at Galatasaray to be laboured over significantly in the build up to that game, Liverpool may just swat them aside rather than steamrolling through them as we suspect they will do to the other teams in the lower pots.
3) Manchester City
Borussia Dortmund (H), Real Madrid (A), Bayer Leverkusen (H), Villarreal (A), Napoli (H), Bodo/Glimt (A), Galatasaray (H), Monaco (A).
Real Madrid at the Bernabeu obviously jumps out and a trip to the Arctic circle to play Bodo/Glimt will be uncomfortable, but it does feel like they’ve lucked out with the more tricky games besides coming at home.
2) Newcastle
Barcelona (H), PSG (A), Benfica (H), Bayer Leverkusen (A), PSV (H), Marseille (A), Athletic Club (H), Union SG (A).
Their desperate search for a new striker seemingly ending in them reaching a £73m agreement with Stuttgart for seventh-choice Nick Woltemade, likely as Alexander Isak’s replacement, may well have resulted in Toon fans settling for this Champions League campaign being little more than an opportunity for away day jollies and a chance to see some fantastic footballers.
Which is fortunate, because they’ve been dealt a raw deal if the aim was to ease through the group phase. Couldn’t have been worse from pot one, Bayer Leverkusen and Marseille away are among the toughest games from pot two and three respectively and Athletic Club are the best team in pot four.
READ MORE: Alexander Isak to Liverpool is on after we read between Ornstein’s Woltemade lines
1) Chelsea
Barcelona (H), Bayern Munich (A), Benfica (H), Atalanta (A), Ajax (H), Napoli (A), Pafos (H), Qarabag (A).
That’s three of the top five European league champions in Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Napoli. Atalanta lost just one game in last season’s group phase – 3-2 to Real Madrid – drawing with Barca and Arsenal. Add to the a couple of Champions League veterans in Benfica and Ajax and this is a tough draw.
Cypriot newcomers Pafos admittedly offer a gimme three points, but while Qarabag also shouldn’t be much of a test for the actual champions of the world, a five hour flight to Azerbaijan is a bit of a p*sser.
It doesn’t look great for Chelsea. That said, in quite the positive omen, last time they played Napoli, Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Champions League, one Didier Drogba scored the winning penalty in the final.