Arsenal evolution into title favourites summed up by table which has shock club bottom
Arsenal are title favourites because they are top of the actual table, but also because of a huge improvement in another table led by Spurs and Bournemouth.
The Gunners are clear of Liverpool as the second international break of the season begins, having taken two weeks to turn a five-point gap into a one-point lead.
That swing has helped install them as favourites to win the title, albeit with 31 actual games remaining.
But there is an underlying evaluation which weighs heavily in favour of Arsenal over Liverpool when looking at their results this season against the corresponding fixtures from last season.
That contains arguably the most telling difference between the two sides – and is also a significant cause for concern at two mid-table clubs.
Here is the alternative table of Premier League results in 2025/26 compared to the same games from the 2024/25 campaign, with Leeds, Burnley and Sunderland taking the places of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton respectively.
1) Spurs: +9
2024/25 results: P7 W1 D4 L2 F9 A15 Pts 7
2025/26 results: P7 W4 D2 L1 F13 A5 Pts 16
There remain a great many kinks to iron out but Thomas Frank has done very well to turn Spurs defeats into draws and draws into wins, while retaining an uncanny ability to win at the Etihad. It does help when your predecessor loses at home to Ipswich.
2) Bournemouth: +9
2024/25 results: P7 W1 D2 L4 F5 A10 Pts 5
2025/26 results: P7 W4 D2 L1 F11 A8 Pts 14
With their annual defeat at Anfield secured on the opening day, Bournemouth have been free to improve upon basically every other result when compared to last season. Some daftness from 2024/25, such as losing at Leicester and failing to even win at Spurs, has been corrected emphatically.
3) Manchester City: +6
2024/25 results: P7 W2 D1 L4 F11 A17 Pts 7
2025/26 results: P7 W4 D1 L2 F15 A6 Pts 13
It is always worth reminding ourselves just how gloriously abysmal Manchester City were at times last season. That absurd defensive upgrade cannot be solely credited to Gianluigi Donnarumma but he has certainly helped.
4) Everton: +5
2024/25 results: P7 W1 D3 L3 F5 A9 Pts 6
2025/26 results: P7 W3 D2 L2 F9 A7 Pts 11
When the fixture list was revealed, Everton might have looked upon the seven games leading into the October international break with dread, having won only one of the corresponding games in 2024/25. But that 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace at Goodison Park was repeated at the Hill Dickinson with David Moyes engineering improvements across the board elsewhere.
5) Arsenal: +5
2024/25 results: P7 W3 D2 L2 F15 A8 Pts 11
2025/26 results: P7 W5 D1 L1 F14 A3 Pts 16
The 5-1 thrashing of Manchester City in February, downgraded to a 1-1 draw in September, applies a lot of gloss to the comparative goals column of 2024/25. But perhaps the biggest indication that Arsenal have evolved is that the two wins which propelled them to the top of the table heading into the international break came in fixtures they lost last campaign: Newcastle (a) and West Ham (h).
6) Liverpool: +1
2024/25 results: P7 W4 D2 L1 F13 A8 Pts 14
2025/26 results: P7 W5 D L2 F12 A8 Pts 15
Those five consecutive wins amended a couple of mistakes from last season but losing at Selhurst Park having ground out a 1-0 victory there last October was a setback. Being a point up is admittedly one in the eye for the crisis argument.
7) Crystal Palace – No change
2024/25 results: P7 W3 D3 L1 F9 A8 Pts 12
2025/26 results: P7 W3 D3 L1 F9 A5 Pts 12
Oliver bloody Glasner.
8) Chelsea: -1
2024/25 results: P7 W3 D3 L1 F13 A7 Pts 12
2025/26 results: P7 W3 D2 L2 F12 A7 Pts 11
The defeat to Fulham at Stamford Bridge was avenged eight months later, but Chelsea beat Brighton at home and drew with Manchester United in 2024/25, yet lost to both all that time ago when Enzo Maresca was a bald fraud on the brink of being sacked.
9) Fulham: -1
2024/25 results: P7 W3 D0 L4 F7 A8 Pts 9
2025/26 results: P7 W2 D2 L3 F8 A11 Pts 8
Has there ever been a more Will Win About As Many Games As They Lose team in Barclays history than Marco Silva’s Fulham?
10) West Ham: -4
2024/25 results: P7 W2 D2 L3 F4 A10 Pts 8
2025/26 results: P7 W1 D1 L5 F6 A6 Pts 4
Only four of the last 18 meetings between West Ham and Everton have ended in a draw; David Moyes was in the dugout for three of them.
11) Manchester United: -4
2024/25 results: P7 W4 D2 L1 F14 A10 Pts 14
2025/26 results: P7 W3 D1 L3 F9 A11 Pts 10
Erik ten Hag didn’t die for this.
12) Brentford: -4
2024/25 results: P7 W3 D2 L2 F14 A8 Pts 11
2025/26 results: P7 W2 D1 L4 F9 A12 Pts 7
Considering what they lost in the summer it isn’t dreadful, plus one of the corresponding fixtures was against the play-off winners and it could be argued that Southampton, who Brentford beat 5-0 last season, are not quite of the same standard as Sunderland, who beat Brentford 2-1 this.
13) Newcastle: -5
2024/25 results: P7 W4 D2 L1 F16 A11 Pts 14
2025/26 results: P7 W2 D3 L2 F6 A5 Pts 9
It turns out Newcastle have been far better defensively while losing an immense amount of attacking threat this season. Someone really ought to let Eddie Howe know.
14) Nottingham Forest: -5
2024/25 results: P7 W3 D1 L3 F14 A14 Pts 10
2025/26 results: P7 W1 D2 L4 F5 A12 Pts 5
Dear lord, what a sad little life, Evangelos.
15) Wolves: -6
2024/25 results: P7 W2 D2 L3 F8 A10 Pts 8
2025/26 results: P7 W0 D2 L5 F5 A14 Pts 2
Could be an idea to stop doing the whole ‘sell all your good players and replace them by speculating on inexperienced unknowns for a fraction of the price’ bit.
16) Aston Villa: -8
2024/25 results: P7 W5 D2 L F13 A4 Pts 17
2025/26 results: P7 W2 D3 L2 F6 A7 Pts 9
Another snared by the difference in difficulty between Southampton and Sunderland, the outlook would have been even worse for Villa had they not carelessly drawn 1-1 with Ipswich last season; their pre-break win over Burnley was an advance on that at least.
17) Brighton: -9
2024/25 results: P7 W6 D0 L1 F16 A9 Pts 18
2025/26 results: P7 W2 D3 L2 F10 A10 Pts 9
That does appear to be quite a significant step back from the boy Hurzeler. His knack of beating Manchester City 2-1 at home is admittedly handy but the German might be grateful for those bigger names who insist on taking the sack race spotlight.
