Arsenal’s elite finishing, Man Utd just shoot, Spurs’ unsustainable start: one xG nugget per Premier League club
Now we know that for some of you the harmless little abbreviation ‘xG’ is about as welcome in your football experience as half-and-half scarves, VAR or Sam Matterface.
To those people we say: just move along. There is nothing for you here, it will only angry you up. Save yourselves. West Ham, Aston Villa and Wolves fans might also want to save themselves, just because – spoiler alert – what follows is quite depressing.
To the rest of you: welcome. Let’s have some fun, shall we, with football data’s most divisive and impishly mischievous contribution to the world.
Here’s one stat-based nugget for each Premier League club after the first four games of the season, with numbers from the very excellent fbref.com.
Arsenal have scored with 64% of their shots on target
Arsenal have nine goals from 14 shots on target. To put that in some perspective, doom-spiralling crisis club West Ham have had 19 shots on target this season. Liverpool and Chelsea, joint top-scorers at this stage with Arsenal on nine, each have 21 shots on target.
Arsenal’s non-penalty xG figure this season of 5.5 is considerably lower than doom-spiralling crisis club Manchester United’s 6.3. Go figure.
READ: Arsenal second XI would finish in top six as Premier League back-ups ranked
Aston Villa rank 12th for shots, joint 14th for shots on target, joint 13th for shooting accuracy but 19th for xG and 20th for actual goals
Only pointless Wolves come in below Villa’s xG figure of 2.7 this season. Only Manchester United (-3.9) are underperforming against xG more dramatically than Villa’s -2.7. We guess you could have worked out that -2.7 for yourselves.
READ: ‘No more than four’ Emery signings a ‘resounding success’ as Aston Villa narrative flips
Bournemouth have had more shots this season than Arsenal, Manchester City, Newcastle and Tottenham
And indeed more than everyone apart from Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool. But they rank only tenth for shooting accuracy, and have the sixth bottom for non-penalty xG per shot at 0.09.
So lots of shooting, but not necessarily from the most optimum position. It’s the xG equivalent of lobbing enough balls at enough coconuts until you win a goldfish. Although we will need a different shorthand for expected goldfish, because xG is taken and it will get confusing.
Brentford are still a Thomas Frank side
They still prioritise quality over quantity when it comes to shooting. Only Burnley have attempted fewer shots on goal, but only Fulham make their attempts from a closer average distance than Brentford’s 14.1 yards. Brentford’s non-penalty xG/shot of 0.13 is the third highest in the division.
Brighton are the fourth-worst finishers in the division with 0.05 goals per shot
Only Manchester United have a lower goals-per-shot number, apart from poor old Leeds (still waiting for a first non-penalty goal, and thus on 0.00 in this penalty-excluding stat) and Aston Villa (still waiting for any kind of goal of any sort)
Burnley have attempted the fewest shots and allowed the most
We don’t claim to be boffin-like stats experts, clearly, but having the fewest shots of any team in the division (30) while allowing the most shots of any team in the division (76, which is already 21 more than anyone else) doesn’t seem a sustainable gameplan.
Especially when you remember that tally doesn’t even include the two heartbreaking 95th-minute penalty kicks.
What you can say for Burnley, is that they are not giving up lots of clear chances; only five teams have a lower goals/shots allowed figure than the Clarets’ 0.05. For context, West Ham’s figure is 0.23.
Chelsea have the joint most goals (9), second most shots (59), and joint most shots on target (20)
But they’re not just wild pot-shots, either. Chelsea rank fifth for both goals/shot at 0.15 and npxG/shot at 0.12.
Crystal Palace create excellent chances but then don’t score them
Only Manchester City (0.17) have a higher non-penalty xG/shot than Palace’s 0.14. But only Manchester United, Leeds and Aston Villa are currently underperforming their npxG worse than Palace’s -2.4.
Everton have managed to get only 20.8% of their shots on target
Only Leeds are more wayward. If shooting boots can be located, Everton really could be onto something, because only Man City and Chelsea currently have a higher npxG than the Toffees’ 6.3
Fulham are the Premier League’s ‘walk it into the net’ merchants
The Cottagers’ average distance for attempts on goal is 13.8 yards, with Brentford and Tottenham – and there’s an obvious common factor there – the only other teams below 15 yards on average. Newcastle’s average shooting distance is a distinctly pot-shot 19.5 yards.
Leeds have both the fewest and lowest-quality chances in the Premier League
Leeds have managed only seven non-penalty shots on target, and even when they have created chances they’ve not been good ones. Nobody has a lower npxG/shot figure than Leeds’ 0.07.
Liverpool are smashing their xG to pieces
Liverpool rank joint-top for goals scored, but only seventh for expected goals, which they are outperforming by a nice round three goals. Presumably three injury-time goals.
Manchester City dominate the xG stats
Their current npxG of 8.4 is miles clear of the rest, with nobody else even managing to crack the seven barrier. Chelsea have 6.9, while the other two teams to outscore City in actual goals at this time, Arsenal and Liverpool, have just 5.5 and 5.3 respectively.
City’s npxG/shot figure of 0.17 is also the highest in the division, ahead of Crystal Palace on 0.14.
That’s why Erling Haaland will probably win the Golden Boot.
Premier League Big Chances created table:
Manchester United do all of the shooting
Bearing in mind that the total shots count doesn’t include penalties, we’re struggling to remember a single one of these, but apparently United have had 68 attempts on goal – nine more than Chelsea and Liverpool and well over twice as many as Burnley, who have managed the same number of total goals as United.
To no great surprise, only Villa and Leeds – the teams with no non-penalty goals – have worse goals/shot data than United.
Newcastle (three goals) have attempted as many shots as Manchester City (eight goals)
They are among the seven teams to have reached 50 attempts on goal this season. Notable teams yet to reach that landmark include Tottenham, Everton and Villa.
Only Leeds, Everton and Sunderland have a worse shots-on-target percentage than Newcastle’s 24%.
Nottingham Forest are so not Angeball rhythms
Forest were xG-busting stat-destroying machines last season, but one thing they are not is attack, attack, attack Angeball merchants. At least not yet.
They currently sit in the bottom six for xG (3.7), total shots (36), and shots on target (10) after four games.
Sunderland are crack finishers
Only Tottenham, Liverpool and Arsenal are currently outperforming their npxG more notably than Sunderland’s mark of +1.3.
Tottenham are this season’s xG mischief-makers
It was Nottingham Forest last season, and so far this season it’s Spurs making a mockery of xG’s doom-laden prophecies. Spurs are top for outperforming npxG scored (+3.2) and second for outperforming npxG conceded (-3.6, a tenth of a goal behind Burnley).
According to the boffins, Spurs should have scored 4.8 goals and conceded 4.6; the actual numbers are 8 and 1.
There is evidence they’re already adapting to Frank’s long-standing and deeply held belief that quality beats quantity when it comes to shots. Three teams have outscored Spurs, yet eight have had more attempts but only two (including Frank’s old team Brentford) have a closer average shooting distance than Spurs’ 14.2 yards.
West Ham have a goalkeeping crisis
Nobody else in the league has conceded more than two goals more than their npxG figure. Indeed, Wolves (+1.9), Bournemouth (1.5) and Brentford (+1.0) are the only teams even a whole goal worse off than the numbers suggest they should be.
West Ham are 5.5 goals worse off, having conceded 11 goals from 5.5 npxG. Nobody else allows teams closer to their goal to shoot (average distance 13.3 yards) they concede 0.23 goals per shot allowed; the next worst figure in the league here is Manchester United’s 0.17.
READ: Will West Ham make sensible Nuno decision or go batsh*t again?
Wolves can take no comfort from xG
When you’re bottom of the league with four defeats from four games, it makes sense that you might seek refuge in the stats. To try and find some underlying number that convinces you everything is going to be okay.
For Wolves, xG is…not that stat. They are rock bottom for npxG scored (2.6) and second bottom for npxG conceded (7.1).