Predicting the Premier League manager merry-go-round: Howe to England, Slot sack, Guardiola leaves

We could see a seismic shift in the Premier League this summer, with multiple managers out of contract and plenty of others facing a ‘mutual’ split that is actually a very one-sided decision.

It’s more entertaining than transfer sagas in many respects, especially when £50million+ players on £200,000-a-week contracts whose performances have not met expectations face punishment no more extreme than sitting on a cosy Premier League bench. Managers, meanwhile, get the sack and see their reputations left in tatters.

The question is not just ‘Who will leave?’ but also ‘Where will they go?’ and ‘Who will replace them?’ Plus, which dodgy supplement Liam Rosenior will endorse first and just where Ange Postecoglou fits into all of this.

There are so many questions ahead of an incredible off-season, and we will try our very best to answer them here.

Managergeddon is well and truly upon us.

Eddie Howe

If there is one outgoing Premier League manager likely to take a sabbatical after this season, it’s…Pep Guardiola. But Eddie Howe is second.

There are a couple of big jobs Howe has found himself perennially linked with: Manchester United and England.

It’s looking likely that United will go for a bigger, fancier name than Howe, with Paris Saint-Germain’s Luis Enrique a big target; incidentally, so is England head coach Thomas Tuchel.

Howe has done a brilliant job at Newcastle United and deserves to be in contention for big jobs, but not big, big jobs like Manchester United. England feels like an exception, as he is surely the best English manager out there.

And that brilliant job Howe has done has hit a big ol’ wall; giving him another season would be a mistake, even if many people would argue he has enough Credit In The Bank to stay. Things can just go stale. It happens. It’s fine.

As the outstanding English candidate – and someone who would take the job yesterday – Howe’s next job has to be with England.

Tuchel did recently sign a new contract lasting until Euro 2028, but the noise surrounding his future ahead of this summer’s World Cup forced the FA’s hand, and extending his deal was a savvy move that dissolved unnecessary speculation capable of derailing a fragile England team.

If Tuchel does stay beyond the 2026 World Cup, Howe will probably take a break until the England job becomes vacant. If Tuchel leaves after the 2026 World Cup, Howe will step in straight away, because there’s no way he should be at Newcastle in 2026/27.

So who next for the Magpies? Probably someone foreign. If they do look abroad, Stuttgart’s Sebastian Hoeness is an option, but we reckon it will be Andoni Iraola, whose Bournemouth contract expires this summer.

MAILBOX: Newcastle United should give Eddie Howe a statue. Then sack him…

Arne Slot

The Liverpool hierarchy supposedly aren’t considering replacing Arne Slot at the end of the season.

On one hand, it would be very harsh to sack a manager who won the title a year ago. On the other, Liverpool have been rubbish this season, Slot’s tactics and team selection have been baffling, and planning for the future is more important than celebrating past achievements.

Slot deserves his place in Reds folklore for delivering the Premier League title in a brilliant season for him, the club and Mohamed Salah, but are Liverpool heading in the right direction under his management? Probably not.

Having impressed at Feyenoord, Slot was previously linked with clubs like Leeds United and Tottenham Hotspur. After an unexpected yet deserved move to Anfield, he got his foot in the door of elite management.

His inclusion here means we’re putting our neck on the line and predicting his exit. Former Liverpool midfielder Xabi Alonso is the obvious candidate to replace him, and if the club don’t appoint Alonso this summer, he could be unattainable by the time Slot does leave.

With so many managers expected to be on the move, the options for a Premier League title-winning coach are vast. In Slot’s case, you could see him ending up at Marseille, Real Madrid or the Dutch national team – a wide and rather unpredictable range.

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Michael Carrick

Will Manchester United fall into the same interim trap, with Michael Carrick’s impressive work echoing Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s? Or will the latter’s eventual downfall be the reason Carrick is not rewarded the job?

As Roy Keane has been keen to emphasise, things change when an interim becomes permanent. Carrick has no say in the big decisions right now – new contracts, sales, replacements. That’s not on him. Step into the role full-time and everything shifts. Relationships change and the honeymoon period ends.

However, United’s vastly improved performances since Ruben Amorim was sacked in January make a compelling case for Carrick to stay.

We’re not expecting that to happen, though. United want a proven winner – someone they know can restore the glory days – and that’s where Luis Enrique and Tuchel come into the equation. Both have won domestic league titles and the Champions League, while Carrick will always be the man who failed at Middlesbrough.

His work at Old Trafford this season has certainly put his name in the minds of Premier League owners, and even if he’s not the leading candidate to become Amorim’s permanent successor, he won’t be short of options this summer, especially with so many other managers on the move.

A return to former club Tottenham Hotspur was a serious possibility, but they’ve appointed Roberto De Zerbi. So now the question is whether Carrick is destined for mid-table fare like Fulham, Bournemouth or Crystal Palace, or if clubs like Newcastle or Aston Villa – should Unai Emery leave – are willing to take a chance on him.

We really like the look of Carrick at Fulham. It just feels right.

Liam Rosenior

It’s hard not to feel sorry for Liam Rosenior… until he starts talking. He was essentially forced into a promotion from Strasbourg to Chelsea – both BlueCo clubs. It was too early for him and he probably knew that, but he couldn’t exactly say no to his bosses.

After a promising start – a bit like Graham Potter in 2022 – the wheels have well and truly fallen off. Astonishingly, Rosenior signed a six-and-a-half-year contract in January. His payoff will be colossal, and it’s anyone’s guess what he’ll do with the compensation. If you start seeing Herbalife adverts everywhere, you’ll know why.

Whether it’s dodgy supplements or a course on how to properly age men, Rosenior’s next job might not be in management, while Chelsea will once again have a major decision to make, for their sins.

Their entire philosophy seems centred on youth and discovering the next big thing, whether that’s a player or a manager. That rules out a lot of names. In fact, it rules out almost everyone on this list, with the exception of Carrick and Iraola, neither of whom they are likely to appoint.

Julian Nagelsmann would surely be the best option, and a hefty Stamford Bridge pay packet could be enough to tempt him away from the German national team after the World Cup. But we all know it’s going to be Cesc Fabregas.

Whatever BlueCo do next, you can safely assume it’ll be the wrong decision.

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Oliver Glasner

Oliver Glasner has already confirmed he will leave Crystal Palace when his contract expires this summer. His stock is lower now than it was a year ago, but he still has the chance to win another trophy before departing, something that could significantly influence the calibre of club he manages next season.

The questions are: who replaces him at Palace? The answer: Sir Gareth Southgate. And where does Glasner go? That is far less obvious.

As mentioned, it could depend on how Palace fare in the Europa Conference League. Two trophies in two years at a club that had none in 119 would reflect incredibly well on the Austrian, especially given he has had to cope with the sales of his two best players without proper backing in the transfer market.

Given previous interest, Bayern Munich should not be ruled out if Vincent Kompany departs, though we’re not convinced Glasner is quite Manchester United or Liverpool material.

A move abroad feels most likely, but we can also see him taking over at Aston Villa – who will win the Europa League – because, bombshell alert, Unai Emery could realistically move on.

Andoni Iraola

Out of contract at Bournemouth at the end of the season, Iraola will have plenty of options, and we suspect the best one will be Newcastle, which is likely where he will end up.

The Cherries will probably appoint someone nobody saw coming, or at least a slightly more established name than Iraola was when he joined in 2023, likely from Spain again.

Girona boss Michel – who also managed Rayo Vallecano – feels like an equally realistic and ambitious candidate.

Marco Silva

We’ve already covered Fulham’s search for Silva’s replacement, and the club will need to move quickly if they want the Portuguese to extend his contract beyond this summer.

As things stand, it looks unlikely, meaning that after five years at Craven Cottage, Silva will be a free agent.

Is a Premier League step up realistic? Probably not. But there are plenty of lateral options – Palace and Bournemouth, for example – if Silva is so inclined. He could also be on the radar for Villa or Newcastle, though we’re not convinced either will make a move.

A nice foreign gig seems like the natural next step for Silva, or perhaps even the Portuguese national team, should Roberto Martinez falter in North America this summer.

Pep Guardiola

He just needs a break, doesn’t he? And that’s not my Arsenal head talking.

The Manchester City boss has a year remaining on his contract after this season, but there have been murmurs for a while, with Enzo Maresca one of the leading candidates to replace him, having worked under Guardiola and done relatively well as Chelsea head coach. Kompany is also an option, which opens the door to Bayern Munich for someone like Slot, Alonso or Glasner.

A Pep sabbatical has been coming. His amusing disdain for the world beyond football is becoming more pronounced every week. Surely he walks away this summer. Surely, right?

You can’t even make a prediction based on how City finish the season. If they win the Premier League or complete a cup double or treble, he could ride off into the sunset on an incredible high – or that winning feeling could convince him to stay. Guardiola has been in the game a long time and won the biggest trophies, yet he seemed just as delighted with the Carabao Cup last month as he was with the Champions League in 2009.

You don’t lose that overwhelming joy when you win the biggest matches and trophies.

Nothing would surprise us regarding Guardiola’s future at City.

Unai Emery

Perhaps the boldest inclusion on this list, we don’t necessarily need Emery to leave Aston Villa for the drama, but it’s genuinely plausible.

Emery has worked wonders at Villa. Despite having had cracks at two giant clubs in PSG and Arsenal, he might feel that third time is the charm. His stock has arguably never been higher, and if he guides the Villans to Europa League success, it will be indisputable.

Real Madrid is the ultimate juggernaut, presenting a huge risk for any manager, let alone one who has never succeeded at a club bigger than Villa, with all due respect.

Still, with Madrid’s options relatively scarce, we’re backing Emery to get the job. Should Villa fail to tempt someone like Tuchel, Glasner would likely replace the Spaniard.

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